model, and what impact that will have on their income, versus those outlets that can’t and whose revenue will disappear for the duration of the crisis. Likewise, auto lenders whose individual or commercial clients are using their vehicles or fleets for ridesharing,willknowthatrevenueisgoingtodeclineataprecipitousrateandthose borrowerswillneedmoresupportthanothercustomers. The principal task of credit analytics should be to model the roll rate from stress to delinquency, to resolution and recovery, and then target interventions that will keep Lenders should be those roll rates as low as possible and help as many customers as possible avoid default. Banks have become very sophisticated at micro-targeting for marketing doing not only sectoral purposes – understanding the lifestyle and spending habits of the self-employed single professional musician versus the “married with kids” sports fanatic who owns their own business. This is an opportunity to use all that personalization expertise to but also individual crafthighlytargetedmessagesinthecustomer’slanguageandtoneofvoice.Usinga tailored approach will help cut through the noise. Many people will be overwhelmed customer cashflow by this crisis, so getting communication right and getting customers’ attention is going to becritical. modelling toproactively Beyond getting interventions and messaging right, banks also need to proactively consider alternative lending structures, particularly if there is a way to convert reach out to customers cashflow-based lending into asset-based lending. A struggling restaurant may be housedinafamilypropertythathasbeenownedforgenerations,sonowmightbethe with tailored, relevant timetoconsideracommercialmortgagetocreatecashreserves. Asset finance companies with balance sheet capacity also need to be thinking about solutionproposals. howtheycansupporttheindustriestheyareinvolvedinbylendingagainstunpledged assets.WhilecreditfilesandCRMsystemswillnothavealltheinformationneeded to proactively shape these alternatives, good commercial RMs need to be given the licensetobecreativewhilestillbeingprudentwithrespecttofuturecreditrisk.These RMs will also need immediate training and support to ensure they understand all the bank-specificandgovernment-sponsoredoptionsthatareavailable. 9 COVID-19: Open letter to retail and commercial banking CEOs