1 CreditManagement By far the greatest and most complex impact of COVID-19 for banks will be on credit management.Thecashflowofmanyconsumersandbusinessesiscollapsingaslackof demand flows through into lower business revenues and employee layoffs. For some workers, like those in the gig economy and the restaurant industry, the impact will be immediateandsevereas indicated by the spike in unemployment claims around the world.Forthoseinregularsalariedemploymenttheshort-termimpact maybelimited, butinthecomingmonthslayoffswillriseaswillfurloughprogramsand othermeasures thatwillreducehouseholdincomes. If effectiveactionisnottaken,therewillbearapidriseinconsumerandcommercialNPLs asborrowersstruggletomakescheduledinterestandprincipalpayments.Therewillalso beamaterialimpactontheautoandequipmentfinancesectorsasborrowersstruggleto makeleasepayments.Wethinklendersofalltypesshouldfocusonafewpriorityissues: Support GovernmentAction Beyondmacrostimulusmeasureslikereductionsininterestrates,salarysupportprograms, and direct monetary transfers, governments around the world are going to intervene to mitigatethecreditimpactofthispandemic.Manyoftheseeffortswillaimtopostpone theinevitabledifficultiesfacedbycurrentborrowers.Forexample,intheUK,bankshave been asked to provide three-month payment holidays for mortgages and to suspend repossessionandcourtactionsacrossmostassetclasses. 6 COVID-19: Open letter to retail and commercial banking CEOs
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