Amoreoptimistictakeisthatthepublicsectorandthebanksworktogethertoput themostvulnerablesectorsoftheeconomyintosuspendedanimationforaperiod, slowing activity and expenditure but keeping businesses viable until demand turns up. The mirror image, on the consumer side, is ensuring that everyone can meet their basic requirements, like feeding themselves, while slowing the metabolism of any credit crisis that could emerge as a result of them falling behind on their payments. The attraction of cryogenic freezing is that the person or business can have their metabolism slowed but be economically resuscitated at some point in the future. Whenthingsbegintoturnpositive,thenbothgovernmentsandbankscanapplythe defibrillatorpaddlesandprovideanotherjoltofstimulus. The likely outcome is somewhere in between: banks will be subjected to a second halfof2020inwhichNPLsbecomeamajorissue,revenuegrowthdisappears,profit dropsby50to100percent,andcostsneedtoberight-sizedinasmartandforward- looking manner. In this scenario, banks should be ready to communicate to their shareholders that short-term profit considerations need to take second place to the sector playing a role in stabilizing the global economy and setting a foundation for futuregrowth.Ifcreditlossescanbecontrolledandwemanagetoavoida2008-like liquidity crisis, the banking sector should be able to weather this storm and use the capitalbuffersthathavebeenbuiltupoverthelastdecadetoabsorbthelosses. Product companies have already learned hard lessons about location strategy and supply chain resilience in the face of this pandemic. There will be similar lessons to be learned by banks about their location strategy. Having a captive in Manila may havebeenagoodcostreductionstrategy,butifnoneoftheemployeestherehave laptopsorhigh-speedinternetathome,remoteworkingmaynotbeaviableoption. 23 COVID-19: Open letter to retail and commercial banking CEOs