UK Banks Accelerating to the New Normal

Leading UK banking customers through and beyond the crisis Accelerating the “new normal” COVCOVIDID--19: 19: WhWhatat to to ddoo Now, WNow, Whathat to doto do NextNext NNOWOW NEXTNEXT 1

We live in unprecedented times The global COVID-19 outbreak has created unexpected disruption, forcing individuals and businesses to change the way we live, work and interact. This has shattered many orthodoxies–for example, “remote working won’t hold up”–accelerating us towards the NEW NORMAL. Banks have responded swiftly to take control NOW, catering to the immediate needs of customers as the COVID-19 crisis deepens. They will soon need to think about the NEXT steps to stabilise their business. We believe the real opportunity is to accelerate the NEW NORMAL. This is a future vision of banking that is purpose-driven, value- generating and operationally innovative. 2

COVID-19 creates new challenges for consumers UK consumers who were already struggling with Banks are not immune to current economic shocks finances could be worse off because of COVID-19 and would do well to review their strategy Lack of 75 percent of individuals do not have Further Incumbent UK banks’ revenues have stagnated savings to cover three months of living recently. Net interest income is expected to savings and 75% 1. revenue expenses Over 35 percent of business decline further due to lower BoE rates and wealth planning owners fear they can’t survive six pressures management fees are likely to slump too. 2 weeks without additional financing Over- 50 percent of individuals were already Focus on Retail banks’ OPEX has been mostly flat since 2014 50% anxious about their financial situation despite strategic investments in technology and indebtedness 3 operational prior to the crisis , with almost 20 digitalisation. Increased revenue pressures will require percent of the adult population over- efficiency banks to accelerate their shift to a “new estate”. indebted4 Limited 50 percent of the population lack Credit A rise in NPLs is likely due to financial stress on confidence in their financial decision individuals and businesses. Banks should consider financial 50% 5 quality making. But banks are not their first- additional pre-emptive measures to prevent knowledge choice source of advice or support issues customers from going into recovery and resolution. 6 when financial circumstances change 3

We have been forced to adapt The COVID-19 situation has accelerated changes in the way we live and work by 3 to 5 years, so what we had expected to happen by 2025 is happening in 2020. 1 2 3 4 Closure of office Social distancing has Restricted mobility “Stay at home” premises has shifted increased digital has led to a boom in policies have given many employees to engagement e-commerce rise to new remote working, propositions as interactions with as customers, heavily with parents having to family and friends, home reliant on delivery across the industry and play multiple roles as schooling, services, encourage are scaling at pace, they balance work and entertainment, and even businesses to launch such as with home the care of their children. banking relationships, all online services and fitness apps, online move to digital. accept digital payments. concerts, theatres, etc. 4

Looking beyond the immediate Changes in the way we live and work are a catalyst in accelerating the Purpose-driven ”new normal”. Customer intimacy is restored by To lead customers through and beyond this crisis, and to emerge in a offering broader choices and appealing position of strength, banks should resist the temptation to revert to services, tailored to customer needs the old ways of working. The old orthodoxies–such as “the elderly can and aspirations only be served at branches”–no longer hold. Now is an opportunity for banks to build trust with customers whilst Value-generating doubling down on the strategic investments that accelerate their progress to the future of banking – this will not only protect short A business model with emphasis on term business health but will also provide the foundation for win-win rather than win-lose banking competitively advantaged growth. relationships In our view, the future bank is Operationally innovative Seamless innovative solutions are one that is “purpose-driven, delivered at scale by leveraging value-generating and technology, digital capabilities and partnerships operationally innovative” 5

Characteristics of a future bank in the “new normal” One that… …is more digital …is more data driven …is more in the cloud …has a variable cost structure for its operations …adopts stronger, more integrated digital sales and servicing capabilities …is highly automated and leverages AI …has a modernised IT shop that isn’t buried under legacy IT debt …has thought through the implications of having a big captive …has the business capabilities to differentiate in a disrupted world 6 ACCELERATING THE NEW NORMAL 6

Our scenario modeling, by Accenture Research, considered the potential impact on “cost of risk” and “revenues on assets” by comparing FY2019 numbers to the past 12 years since the 2008 financial crisis. If UK banks’ “cost of risk” goes back to its highest level (between 2007 and 2019) and “revenue on assets” to its lowest level (same period), UK banks could potentially lose However, whilst 244 percent of their profit before tax. accelerating the “new If “cost of risk” goes back to its highest level whilst “revenues on assets” remain steady, UK banks could lose 169 percent of their profit before tax. normal”, banks need to carefully manage their Scenario Cost of risk Revenues on assets Potential effect on profit before metrics, to minimise assumptions assumptions tax (near future) exposure to a sizeable 1 Highest level Lowest level -244% financial risk 2 Average level Lowest level -120% 3 Highest level No changes -169% 4 Average level No changes -45% 5 No changes Lowest level -75% It is worth caveating that the analysis does not factor in how quickly this could occur. However, it does indicate that the losses could be significant. 7

Where we are now Market capitalisationtrends of top UK banks, by event (day of event T = 100) 110 The decline in the market value 105 of the UK banking industry is 100 similar to that of the 2008/09 financial crisis 95 However, the industry today is in 90 a much better position. Banks 85 are well capitalised and have far 80 better loss absorption capacity. Central banks are carefully 75 monitoring liquidity and 70 intervening proactively to 65 support the credit markets to Lehman Ebola COVID-19 prevent a repeat of the liquidity 60 H1N1 COVID-19 domino effect of 2008. Payment Market cap down 39% (>€106 bn) 55 MERS since the outbreak systems are functioning well. 50 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 Banks included: HSBC, Standard, Barclays, RBS and Lloyds Source: Accenture Research analysis on S&P Capital IQ data T=0, COVID-19, February 21, 2020: Authorities reported the first death in Italy T=0, MERS, May 25, 2015: Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) spreads in South Korea. T=0, Ebola, April 14, 2014: Total number of death due to Ebola disease is above 100. T=0, H1N1, April 21, 2009: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) publicly reported the first two U.S. infections with the new H1N1 virus. T=0, Lehman, October 3, 2008: US Congress passed the Emergency Economic Stabilisation Act of 2008. 8

UK banks have acted fast to take control with customers in mind Time is of the essence. Some of the measures taken are: Stood up crisis command Implemented business centers, including identifying Reviewed investment priority business and operational continuity plans, including portfolios and put non- metrics to track performance work-from-home provisions critical projects on hold through this period Operationalised and Expanded digital Scaled back dividend handed out financial capabilities to encourage payments and deferred stimuli granted by the customers to engage digitally decisions on future government shareholder distributions 9

Focusing on the Now, the Next and the New Normal The present is fraught with uncertainty and the priority is to contain, respond and comply. However, banks need to simultaneously plan and execute their Accelerate the acceleration to the “new normal” in order to emerge as leaders. Future bank We believe this can be done across the Now, the Next and the New Normal horizons in three targeted areas. Stabilise through efficiencies Now Take control NEW Next PREPARE TO REBOUND Stabilise through efficiencies Take control New normal Accelerate the future bank 10

The road to the “new normal” Banks should adopt a three-prong strategy Take control Stabilise through Accelerate the efficiency future bank New 1–2 months New 3–6 months New 6+ months Strict COVID-19 lockdown and COVID-19 restrictions have been relaxed, COVID-19 restrictions have been lifted Characteristics restrictions impacting society, and with individuals and businesses starting and society is preparing to return and potentially leading customers to to reassess their long-term financial adjust to post-COVID-19 ways of life access government relief schemes position Build trust now by shifting from reactive Put control back into the hands of Demonstrate sustainable intent to build Purpose-driven to proactive customer engagement customers trust and help customers adjust to the “new normal” Limit revenue leakage and manage Monitor risks and costs whilst Reinvest cost savings to scale new Value-generating risks with tactical interventions introducing targeted products and new product propositions, leveraging propositions partnerships Operationally Repurpose capacity and lay the Sustainable operations through strategic Aggressively scale digital, AI and innovative blueprint for a new estate investments and deployment of cloud agendas digitalisation and automation 11

The future bank will be What’s the “new normal”? purpose-driven Intimate understanding Show you are sensitive to customers’ financial situations, Redesign customer service and advice behavioursand goals–help them provision to show customers that you manage their money through automated interventions, care about their current and future personalised“nudges” and micro- financial situation level targeting Trusted advisor Expand the scope of traditional Where we are today financial advice to support customers’ unmet needs Customers feel more vulnerable Banking done your way now than ever before and doubt NEW Serve customers through a variety that banks have their best of channels to meet their individual interests at heart preferences (e.g. advice provided remotely by virtual RMs, the “human touch” provided in-branch, sales closed digitally) NEW 12

Purpose-driven banking: the roadmap (1/2) New Now Take control Next Stabilise through New Accelerate the 1–2 months New efficiency future bank 3–6 months New normal 6+ months In addition to the measures banks have already Personalisecustomer engagement Adopt the service model of the future taken, things to consider are: • Enhance the provision of customer insights and • Reduce overall branch footprint with a focus on Focus on targeted customer engagement behavioral nudges by enabling dynamic goal-setting, providing only essential and high-value services at emergency funds and “people like you” comparisons branches. Help all customers to transition to • Provide dedicated branch opening hours for vulnerable • Send relevant messages to customers based on their real- digital banking customers (e.g. over 70s) and critical workers time situations, locations and behavior trends • Evolve, adapt and personalisebehavioral interventions • Show you care and use digital channels proactively to Reconfigure sales and service model at individual level, e.g. understanding customers’ reach out to customers, RMs should use this opportunity personal financial goals and unique money behaviors to provide commercial customers with sector-specific • Enhance digital customer sales and servicing and enable Scale new advice propositions insights remote interactions across end-to-end processes, e.g. • Ensure availability of channels to receive inbound facial recognition and voice authentication for customer • Become the trusted advisor and the point of call for customer queries, e.g. new dedicated out-of-hours verification and digital KYC for new sales advice and financial support for expected and support lines for critical workers, e.g. NHS staff • Reassess overall branch footprint to optimise network unexpected life events, e.g. marriage, divorce, death Launch financial education programs capacity • Listen properly to customer feedback, feelings and • Review overall channel strategy to determine services that sentiment to inform continued improvement of • Leverage digital channels, TV and print ads, and direct will be supported customer service and advice propositions mail to show support for customers’ current and future financial needs, e.g. how changes to financial products and services such as mortgage moratorium affects them and how to better manage their money • Encourage adoption of digital services by customers who have not recently or ever used debit cards or online banking and engage them to build their confidence in transacting cashless or online Continued on next slide 13

Purpose-driven banking: the roadmap (2/2) New Now Take control Next Stabilise through New Accelerate the 1–2 months New efficiency future bank 3–6 months New normal 6+ months In addition to the measures banks have already Further build financial management capabilities Scale new advice propositions (cont.) taken, things to consider are: • Partner with money management start-ups such as Chip, • Reflect on learnings from the COVID-19 period to Better financial management Emma, etc. to offer services, e.g. rounding up evaluate which crisis-response advice propositions transactions, daily savings accounts, family savings should be “steady-state” offerings in the “new normal”, • Provide an aggregated view of customers’ financial accounts e.g. how to deal with a negative change of professional accounts across all their banking relationships, e.g. Emma, status Yolt New advice propositions • Build tools to enable customers to conduct scenario • Offer low-cost advisory propositions to serve holistic modeling to assess the impacts of their financial choices, financial needs, such as an online advisor that provides e.g. switching off certainly monthly subscriptions personalised customer recommendations regularly or constantly • “Make the unexpected expected” by giving customers insights into their spending patterns, e.g. notification of upcoming MOT bill every April Giving back with purpose • Create platforms and propositions to fund donations to COVID-19-related charities, e.g. by encouraging individuals and businesses to round up spend to the nearest pound and donate to the charity funds 14

The future bank will be What’s the “new normal”? value-generating Sensing and actively mitigating risks In-built intelligence capabilities to Focus on credit management to reduce NPLs identify and proactively mitigate by monitoring customers who fall into arrears, credit and funding risks whilst minimising revenue compression due Cost-conscious mindset to reduced sales and rate cuts Bank operates with a lean cost-to- income ratio: 30s to low 40s Relevant at the right time Where we are today Propositions and solutions are tailored to individual and business Many customers’ finances are likely to needs and circumstances deteriorate, in turn impacting banks’ NEW Fundamentally robust finances. Businesses and individuals Founded on a well-rounded yet who don’t qualify for the government simplified product portfolio, stimulus packagewill look to their underpinned by the right collateral banks to support them that increases trust, not risks NEW 15

Value-generating banking: the roadmap (1/2) New Now Take control Next Stabilise through New Accelerate the 1–2 months New efficiency future bank 3–6 months New normal 6+ months In addition to the measures banks have already Enhance risk monitoring Continue relief measures for customers taken, things to consider are: • Ring-fence higher-risk COVID-19-related loans–deploy • Closely monitor customers who have taken out credit Identify and monitor at-risk customers different systems, monitoring and reporting and develop a during the COVID-19 period and support them with separate credit model for loans impacted by COVID-19, appropriate treatment strategies • Identify and adapt treatment plans for customers who are financially at risk, e.g.: e.g. “zombie” businesses, or mortgage defaults Enhance cost consciousness • Employees who did not receive a pay cheque in the • Enhance credit watchlist, increase the frequency of credit • Create a cost-conscious culture and establish current month reviews to enable early intervention, by: governance, policies and measures to optimise spend; • Identifying trends in consumer transaction activity / reinvest savings to scale the business • Self-employed individuals who cannot access account balances to predict individual or SME government funding until June customers in financial difficulty Scale up new propositions • Businesses ineligible for COVID-19 relief • Uncovering potential hidden risks in SMEs using • Re-evaluate the customer segmentation model and adopt • Continue to monitor early warning signals and offer new personal accounts for business a persona-led approach to proposition design short-term loans, e.g. unsecured lending, transactional Suggest alternative financing options • Launch new propositions aimed at supporting customer and working capital loans growth, tailored to different segments: • Work with customers to restructure or refinance existing • Adapt credit policies to allow customers to lend against • A savings product to help consumers re-start wealth loans alternative underlying assets where cash flow is accumulation, e.g. low-risk funds integrating with constrained wealth managers such as Wealthify • Review credit policies to ensure credit decisions made to • Consider directing customers to alternative lenders with • Give SMEs access to new supplier finance /working support customers comply with regulations different eligibility criteria, e.g. recommend to digital capital products to help scale-up production banks such as OakNorth, Tide, Starling, etc. Continued on next slide 16

Value-generating banking: the roadmap (2/2) New Now Take control Next Stabilise through New Accelerate the 1–2 months New efficiency future bank 3–6 months New normal 6+ months In addition to the measures banks have already Establish cost control tower Scale up new propositions (cont.) taken, things to consider are: • Set up capability to identify and monitor cost centres to • Establish a business marketplace leveraging KYB data to Digitise and protect payments assess cost impacts due to COVID-19, e.g. spend on facilitate business connections to draw synergies or travel, marketing and communications scale propositions, e.g. connecting grocers with cafes • Enhance consumer digital payments, e.g. working with Develop new propositions and bakeries based on location to enable home delivery cash-only SMEs to introduce digital payments such as propositions POS terminals, mobile payments, contactless • Launch new propositions / features to help customers • Manage revenue leakage through enhanced detection of survive and operate during the COVID-19 period, e.g.: payment fraud and financial crime e.g. scammers looking • Liquidity management solutions to help SMEs to get personal or financial details in exchange for fake or forecast receivables and payables non-existent COVID-19 tests or treatments • Creative deposit products to encourage savings and Review fees and charges build balance sheet for lending capacity (e.g. pool funds in short-term deposit) • Be sensitive to customers’ potential financial difficulties and proactively manage treatment of penalty fees / Invest in strategic differentiators charges • Focus on faster / better systems and processes as a • Clarify terms and conditions with regards to consumer differentiator to gain market share e.g. facilitating straight- protection offered for prepaid goods and services that through processing of letter-of-credit requests, new draw- can no longer be used, e.g. purchases of events that have down requests, etc. been cancelled, outstanding vouchers or gift cards for businesses that have closed down 17

The future bank will be What’s the “new normal”? operationally innovative Digital first Majority of processes, interactions and transactions are performed completely online with reduced reliance on physical Adjust the operating model by flexing people, footprint processes, technology, partners, regulation Truly open and innovation. This sets the foundation for Connections across multiple right-sizing and transforming the estate ecosystems to broaden front-end distribution, enhance customer propositions and optimise capabilities Radical shift to mobiliseand Where we are today virtualise workforce Flexible working with the ability to stay Physical processes delay responses to connected, while deploying smart customer crises, and legacy technology and practices that augment technology impedes optimal NEW human activity and enable a multi- workforce productivity. Ultimately, skilled workforce these inhibit the operational step- Always on and secure change required to grow profitability Operational resilience to protect assets and, more importantly, customer data NEW 18

Operationally innovative banking: the roadmap (1/2) New Now Take control Next Stabilise through New Accelerate the 1–2 months New efficiency future bank 3–6 months New normal 6+ months In addition to the measures banks have already Staggered return Reconfigure the estate taken, things to consider are: • Deploy measures to gradually reinstate full operations, e.g. • Augment the workforce with tools and training to create Evaluate investment portfolio staggered shifts for employees who will return to the cross-skilling that could drive adaptive capacity physical offices, restart strategic change programs that will management, e.g. operations role virtualisation to allow • Prioritise critical organisational capabilities by reviewing help the bank achieve the “new normal” for “universal operations FTE” to manage demand spikes investments required to fulfil short-term needs and shift Right-size the estate • Continue real-estate optimisation initiatives delivery capacity to maintain the most critical systems • Limit “throw-away” spend and make only no-regret • Review all aspects of the business to right-size the • Review governance structures, e.g. adoption of investments organisation, including real-estate optimisation and decentralised vs. centralised decision management workforce skills planning processes Optimise employee capacity • Review location / on-and off-shoring strategy as remote Drive and sustain a core cultural shift • Rapidly enable colleagues to work remotely, including work is increasingly enabled • Review KPIs and metrics to align the organisation around providing the right environment and access to systems and collaboration tools End-to-end digitalisation the bank’s overall objectives in the “new normal” • Management needs to create an environment where there • Repurpose freed-up colleague capacity, e.g. redeploy • Move to streamline processes and adopt a “true paperless” is an incentive to implement changes to propositions, branch staff to support virtual contact centers and excess principle across customer journeys such as customer channels, front-and back-office staff, the customer capacity in mortgage fulfillment to support business loan onboarding, KYC experience and many other areas processing Continued on next slide 19

Operationally innovative banking: the roadmap (2/2) New Now Take control Next Stabilise through New Accelerate the 1–2 months New efficiency future bank 3–6 months New normal 6+ months In addition to the measures banks have already New delivery methods and technology foundation Accelerate new platforms and ecosystem taken, things to consider are: • Drive increased agile and DevOps for continual rapid connectivity Increase engagement with regulators delivery of product enhancements and updates • Double down on the AI, digital and cloud agendas as key • Accelerate API strategy to build connectivity and minimise pillars for the new operating model • Continue engaging regulators to understand all economic cost of building new capabilities • Enable open connectivity into the broader ecosystem, COVID-19 support measures to be rolled out, and the both for front-end product distribution and back-end bank’s role in this Continue to stay close to regulators operations to gain scale at pace • Work with regulators to balance priorities: regulatory • Continuously engage regulators to understand their criteria • Explore new ways to leverage existing bank capabilities to deadline vs. putting in place COVID-19 measures for support, e.g. government may influence credit policy / support the broader social agenda, e.g. digital age and types of loans given address identification, building upon the digital KYC capability Refresh policies • Reflect on learnings from the COVID-19 period to inform and revise risk policies and business continuity plans 20

Critical enablers for the future bank Data, analytics and Customer Workforce Digitisationand Content and machine learning management management automation communication Data ecosystem management User-centered design Workforce planning Process digitisation Content curation Maintain and interlink external Ensure propositions are Understand capacity for Enable straight-through Ensure content is consistent, and internal data sources, intuitive and user-friendly dynamic rebalancing of processing across the timely and delivered via the right control usage rights, and to drive customer uptake the workforce, revise customer journey, including tone of voice with the optimal comply with privacy Product portfolio short-term incentive plans digital marketing, application, mix of digital and physical media requirements such as GDPR management to align with expected onboarding, fulfillment, Internal communication Provide Analytics and machine learning Simplify and rationalise behaviors servicing and monitoring the organisation with a sense of Generate critical business existing product portfolio to Digital collaboration tools processes to drive speed stability through frequent, clear insights to support decision make room for the new Enable colleagues, whilst reducing and coherent leadership updates making such as preventing Dynamic risk management displaced from their usual operational costs External communication financial crime, conducting Adopt flexible policies to working locations, to Real-time 24/7 payments Maintain frequent dialogue with behavioral segmentation of monitor the bank’s capacity continue being productive Support the faster movement external stakeholders, e.g. customers for contextual to absorb the effects of of money across customers shareholders and regulators, to targeting and personalised financial provisions and businesses, allowing them manage expectations interventions earlier access to cash Technology Infrastructure Hardware and software Acquire the core technology foundations (e.g. cloud, workplace solutions, APIs, data lakes etc.), balancing build / run cost, flexibility and longevity to future-proof the bank Partner Management Partner identification, integration and management Enable open collaboration across businesses, platforms and industries to develop and offer propositions based on customer journeys; implement the required performance metrics, pricing, revenue and service models to support the customer and business proposition 21

In the coming months, UK banks will play a pivotal role in moderating the economic damage caused by this crisis. While it is encouraging to see early response measures deployed at pace, COVID-19 also presents an opportunity for banks to accelerate their Beyond the immediate journey towards the “new normal”. opportunity for banks It is a long game, but with a clear plan, banks can emerge as to serve their leaders. They can show their customers the way through and customers and help beyond the crisis, demonstrating purpose-driven banking in action communities survive while being value-generating and operationally innovative. this crisis, the opportunity is to Now:Take control with a shift from reactive to proactive accelerate to the “new Next: Stabilise through efficiency and risk management normal”–a bank that while investing strategically to create and test new will be better for propositions customers, colleagues New Normal:Accelerate to the “new normal”, enabled by a and shareholders alike new estate that can operate at scale, a humans + machines workforce, and a continued commitment to put purpose at the heart of everything 22

Other COVID- 19 resources Managing the human and business impact of COVID-19 Responding to COVID-19 COVID-19: Responsive Productivity in Uncertain An open letter to retail and customer service in Times Through the Elastic commercial banking CEOs times of change Digital Workplace 23

Contacts Kim KimOon Dean Jayson Tom Merry Stuart Chalmers Managing Director – Managing Director – Managing Director – Managing Director – Accenture Strategy, Banking Banking Accenture Strategy, Banking Banking [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] 24

Contributors Alex Lau Emily Burns Sowmya Ganti Business Strategy Manager Business Strategy Manager Business Strategy Senior Consultant Accenture Strategy, Banking Accenture Strategy, Banking Accenture Strategy, Banking [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] 25

References 1. Financial Capability Strategy for UK 2. Credit Connect, ‘SMEs facing cash flow strains from coronavirus’, 12 March 2020 3. Money & Pensions Service Workplace Saving Survey, ‘New research examines benefits of workplace payroll saving on staff financial wellbeing’, 17th October 2019 4. FinCap Week 2018, Talk Money Week, ‘8.3m people are over indebted but less than a quarter seek help’, 14 November 2018 5. Money & Pensions Service for the UK, ‘Financial capability of UK adults’ 6. Accenture, Purpose Driven Banking, 2020 26

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