See You in the Future

ACCENTURE RESEARCH In collaboration with the Accenture Labs ENTER

CONTENTS BUSINESS FUTURES | 2 3 What are 44 The Imagination Economy Business Futures? A dvances in extended reality 8 The World of technologies promise to break the limits of distance and create new “Techno-Politics” sources of value. S trict state control of cross-border data 62 The Age of (In)Security flows prompt a demand for geopolitical and technological savvy. I n a connected world, data flows 26 Redesigning Life create opportunities and risk—such as vulnerabilities from cyber attacks. H uman enhancement technologies 80 Conclusion are set to reboot performance and productivity—but raise ethical issues. 82 Our Approach THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 3 Q: “Organizations should WHAT ARE contemplate alternative futures built on BUSINESS predetermined trends and logically consistent assumptions.” Vikram Mehta, Chairman, FUTURES? Brookings India and Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 4 “One of the most striking features of the economic landscape over the past 20 years or so,” Federal Governor Ben Bernanke told a gathering in Washington early in 2004, “has been a substantial decline in macroeconomic volatility.”1 Deregulation Proliferation of financial of new and Four years later, Lehman Brothers collapsed. markets complex financial The largest bankruptcy in United States products history plunged the world into financial crisis and heralded the onset of the worst recession since the Great Depression. Few people saw it coming. Yet the trends that led to the downturn were already in play. Booming Greater home prices availability of household credit THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 5 But, if these and other indicators were apparent, why did the calamity catch so many economists, policymakers and business leaders by surprise? We believe it was a classic case of not seeing the forest for the trees, a failure to see how the collision and interplay of several individual trends could create an entirely different economic and business environment. Recognizing trends is not the same thing as imagining what might happen when trends intersect. Not that making sense of it all is easy. Indeed, a recurring theme we encounter in our conversations with corporate executives is that despite—or perhaps because of—the exponential increase in the amount of information about trends and the availability of sophisticated quantitative models to analyze them, strategic decision making today is more complex than ever before. To address this decision-making challenge, we propose a new approach: We call it Business Futures. THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 6 A: Business Futures is an analytical approach that aims to combine insights from data-driven forecasts with speculative storytelling to hone practical decision making about the future (see Our Approach on p.82 and meet the Advisors who helped shape our Futures on p.84). In the pages that follow, we present four key business futures out of the many possible scenarios that we envisioned using this approach. For each future, we explore a story from 2023—a fictional but plausible version of the issues that will affect the business environment if the trends we observe now continue to collide. By engaging in imaginative thinking that is grounded in horizon scanning and text analytics, corporate executives will be better prepared to anticipate the future from multiple new perspectives—and more able to lead their companies to success. THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 7 Let us take you on a journey “We are rather good to help you better understand at seeing trends coming some of these Business Futures. but we constantly We outline trends impacting the underestimate the impact future, explore the challenges of their interplay and the way they combine and and opportunities for today, influence each other.” and step inside 2023 to see Bruno Giussani, European director, what it might look like. TED, and Co-founder, Giussani Group THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

CONTENTS BUSINESS FUTURES | 8 BUSINESS FUTURE #1: THE WORLD OF “TECHNO- POLITICS” 10 Trends 12 Today: Analysis 15 Today: Challenges 17 Today: Opportunities 19 Imagining tomorrow: October 1, 2023 25 Imagining tomorrow: Business Implications THTHEE W WORLDORLD OF OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF ““TETECHCHNONO--PPOLOLIITTIICSCS”” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 9 Growing populism and anti-globalization sentiments have led to more strict state control over digital technologies and the cross-border flow of data and information. But companies that develop geopolitical as well as technological savvy are likely to be rewarded. THTHEE W WORLDORLD OF OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF ““TETECHCHNONO--PPOLOLIITTIICSCS”” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 10 TRENDS The trends driving the “Techno-Politics” future: rising increasing rising economic inequality populism nationalism rising data massive expansion the digitization nationalism in digital data of everything THTHEE W WORLDORLD OF OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF ““TETECHCHNONO--PPOLOLIITTIICSCS”” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 11 WHAT’S DRIVING THE WORLD OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” TODAY? ANALYSIS “Companies must make CHALLENGES geopolitical awareness part OPPORTUNITIES of their DNA.” Nader Mousavizadeh, Co-founder & Co-CEO of Macro Advisory Partners THTHEE W WORLDORLD OF OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF ““TETECHCHNONO--PPOLOLIITTIICSCS”” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

TODAY: BUSINESS FUTURES | 12 ANALYSIS There are already signs of rising economic nationalism and stricter state control over the cross-border flow of data and information. For example: Russia requires that Fewer than 40 Since 2008, more companies processing countries had data than three times as the personal data of privacy laws in 1997; many trade restrictions its citizens must use today, there are 120.3 have been put in place databases physically among G20 countries located in Russia.2 than have been removed.4 THTHEE W WORLDORLD OF OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF ““TETECHCHNONO--PPOLOLIITTIICSCS”” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

TODAY: BUSINESS FUTURES | 13 ANALYSIS Almost as important is the extent to which The trend toward geopolitical fragmentation inequality has become more obvious to the has gone hand-in-hand with—and arguably public, as communications technology makes represents a reaction to—the growing ability it easier than ever for people to compare their of technology to connect the world. Outsourcing own situations with those of others, in their and labor-saving technologies lie behind much own countries and elsewhere. of the recent increase in income inequality The widening gap between expectations and in many countries, across the OECD. perceived reality is stoking populism and discontent An example: with “establishment” institutions, including governments and large businesses. In 2016, references to multinationals in the media were EARN more negative than at any point in the previous decade. Exacerbating economic concerns, 10X societal cohesion is often being challenged RICHEST MORE THAN POOREST by rapid changes in culture, making groups 10% 10% that once belonged to a privileged majority feel marginalized. The richest 10 percent of the population now earn nearly 10 times the income of the poorest 10 percent, up from seven times in the 1980s.5 THTHEE W WORLDORLD OF OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF ““TETECHCHNONO--PPOLOLIITTIICSCS”” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

TODAY: BUSINESS FUTURES | 14 ANALYSIS Technology is also empowering a wide range of people to act on their disaffection, challenging the state in three new ways. First, social media connects like-minded people, facilitating cyber-activism within and across countries—with the worrisome result that incorrect information can spread quickly among like-minded people, and be difficult to challenge. Second, cyberspace opens new opportunities for cross- border criminal enterprise, such as phishing; according to ThreatMetrix, the third quarter of 2017 continued to see a significant increase in cyber 6 attacks from emerging economies. Third, emerging technologies can alter geopolitics dramatically by opening new possibilities in warfare, such as the 7 Islamic State hacking commercially available drones to drop small bombs. In the next three to five years, more friction is likely to occur between the world of technology and the geopolitical landscape, bringing in its wake threats to national security, social stability and data privacy. THTHEE W WORLDORLD OF OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF ““TETECHCHNONO--PPOLOLIITTIICSCS”” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

TODAY: BUSINESS FUTURES | 15 CHALLENGES Within five years, companies could face much stricter state control over digital technologies. Growing populism Weaponization Companies could and anti-globalization of emerging face greater sentiments could lead technologies, such as reputational risks governments to focus drones, robotics and from the rapid spread more on erecting AI, is likely to make of misinformation. digital borders to governments more accompany economic aware of the risks and and physical ones, strategic importance and on shaping what of these technologies, happens within and more willing to those borders. intervene in their development and use for business. THTHEE W WORLDORLD OF OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF ““TETECHCHNONO--PPOLOLIITTIICSCS”” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

TODAY: BUSINESS FUTURES | 16 CHALLENGES Advancing technology Data flow Talent As advancing technology Increasingly, it may become Companies may face greater continues to cause industries difficult to run a global challenges attracting and to converge, companies from business that relies on the retaining talent. Governments, more sectors might feel the free flow of data and digital under pressure from citizens constraints inherent in data technology, with multinational who fear losing their jobs, may nationalism that now mainly companies having to bear introduce new restrictions on affect IT companies. This could higher operational and the nationality of employees. slow the pace of innovation in compliance costs. Their ability Companies might also find that areas that rely on the exchange to provide data analytics and their own employees’ growing of data, such as personalized cloud services across markets awareness of the different healthcare, connected cars, could be compromised, which pay levels offered in different and the smart home. could lead them to reassess locations undermines employee their geographic footprint morale and productivity. or reallocate investments across markets. THTHEE W WORLDORLD OF OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF ““TETECHCHNONO--PPOLOLIITTIICSCS”” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

TODAY: BUSINESS FUTURES | 17 OPPORTUNITIES Corporations that develop Organizations may benefit from developing new technology, products, services and business geopolitical as well as models that are demonstrably socially beneficial. technological savvy are Current examples of such efforts include the 8 low-cost satellite networks planned by Samsung, 9 10 likely to be rewarded. Google and SpaceX, which will enable more So are those which pursue people in low-income communities to access the economic opportunities provided by the Internet; a “multi-domestic” strategy, the mobile-enabled temperature sensor device developed by Nexleaf Analytics, which remotely working with governments monitors vaccine refrigerators in countries such 11 to shape national ecosystems as India and sends SMS alerts of any problem; and the “Disputed by fact-checkers” banner and seeking to develop new recently introduced by Facebook in response 12 partnerships–for example, with to concerns about misinformation. local firms–that deepen their understanding of local markets. THTHEE W WORLDORLD OF OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF ““TETECHCHNONO--PPOLOLIITTIICSCS”” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 18 IMAGINING THE WORLD OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” TOMORROW OCTOBER 1, 2023 BUSINESS IMPLICATIONS THTHEE W WORLDORLD OF OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF ““TETECHCHNONO--PPOLOLIITTIICSCS”” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 19 OCTOBER 1, 2023 Sales executive Gérard Montagne commutes daily to Ghent in Belgium from his home in Lille, France. Until last week, he could almost literally make the trip blindfolded: His car’s AutoDrive feature handled all the highway driving. But, since the French government’s emergency data control regulations came into force, he can use the feature only within French borders. Today, as he approaches the Belgian frontier, he disables AutoDrive and takes control of the steering. “It’s really annoying,” complains Montagne. THTHEE W WORLDORLD OF OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF ““TETECHCHNONO--PPOLOLIITTIICSCS”” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 20 OCTOBER 1, 2023 Montagne and other French motorists may have a sympathetic ear at the Ministry of Transport in Paris. The ministry has issued a clarification saying that the new regulations—which, among other things, require all data pertaining to French citizens to be processed and stored on servers physically located in France—were not intended to hinder French citizens driving French-registered cars across borders. Meanwhile, the ministry has summoned carmakers for urgent talks to explain how the regulations apply to motorists. For their part, carmakers are wary and have temporarily disabled some features until their legal liability is clarified. And who can blame them, given recent, high-profile examples of companies breaking new rules that are often complex and unclear? Last week, a leading energy company was fined EUR 1.3 billion for failing to adequately separate its EU and United Kingdom data processing before the end of the pre-Brexit transition period. THTHEE W WORLDORLD OF OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF ““TETECHCHNONO--PPOLOLIITTIICSCS”” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 21 OCTOBER 1, 2023 “Digital technology is connecting the world, while geopolitics is fragmenting it,” laments Tatjana Mäkinen, a senior policy analyst at Technology 4 Equality (T4E), which was set up in 2019 to advocate for cyber openness and transparency. “A few years ago, only the likes of China, Russia and Turkey were imposing onerous nationalist restrictions on data. Now, it seems everyone’s caught up in tit-for-tat responses. Moving data across borders has become difficult, global supply chains are more challenging to manage, and Digital Rights Management (DRM) and Intellectual Property (IP) protection have become a legal minefield.” The new, stringent, French regulations were hastily approved after the terrorist attacks on July 14, 2023, when hijacked outside-broadcast drones—allegedly hacked from servers based in North Africa—were crashed into Bastille Day events in Marseilles and Paris. The laws were the sort of response voters had demanded when they elected the populist La France au Travail coalition to form the new government. During the campaign, the party had stressed that it is as important to secure virtual borders as physical borders—as online trade grows in importance, transactions are increasingly made in virtual money or cryptocurrency, and cybercrime is rampant. THTHEE W WORLDORLD OF OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF ““TETECHCHNONO--PPOLOLIITTIICSCS”” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 22 OCTOBER 1, 2023 France is not alone. “Populists everywhere have rebranded themselves, softening their image and broadening their appeal,” says T4E’s Mäkinen. The Accenture CEO survey “Rather than encouraging voters to blame immigrants for widening 2023 found that 83 percent inequality and the lack of stable, well-paid work, they are stirring up are actively reassessing their popular resentment against technology companies and big business.” geographic footprint, delaying They have also raised concerns about privacy and the manipulation or abandoning plans to enter of information: “La France au Travail won, in part, by exploiting public new markets. anger about the perceived attempts by social media platforms to tweak voters’ newsfeeds in ways that would nudge them to vote for more mainstream parties.” So far, the tide shows few signs of turning. The United States recently imposed punitive levies on 3D printers made by non-US-based companies. Meanwhile, new federal procurement regulations require bidding companies to disclose the percentage of workers who are 83% United States citizens in each of their locations. The impact on businesses has been profound. From connected cars to personalized healthcare, companies that built their strategies on global expansion are struggling to cope with higher operational and compliance costs. 83% THTHEE W WORLDORLD OF OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF ““TETECHCHNONO--PPOLOLIITTIICSCS”” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 23 OCTOBER 1, 2023 How should companies “Every multinational that wants to become a digital business now needs to be geopolitically savvy,” counsels Mäkinen. operate in a world “That means working with national governments to try to shape where more restrictions the environment within national borders, and forming new kinds of local relationships. Sometimes we find that the same are affecting data, service can be offered under different brands in diverse markets.” technology and people? Many companies are moving in this direction, a trend that has spawned a new buzzword: the GMDC—“globalized multi-domestic corporation,” as opposed to multinational. Many GMDCs are also embracing a phenomenon known as “radical transparency,” going above and beyond legal requirements to be open with data about their employees, supply chains and operations. But not everyone is convinced: One recent study found only modest evidence of recovering levels of public trust in the private sector. The survey also pointed to lower employee morale as workers become more aware of the earnings of their counterparts in other geographies. THTHEE W WORLDORLD OF OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF ““TETECHCHNONO--PPOLOLIITTIICSCS”” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 24 OCTOBER 1, 2023 Mäkinen’s group is frustrated that more GMDCs Mäkinen reels off standard examples of innovation aren’t coming to the defense of technology as improving lives: a force for good. Notes Mäkinen: • Community-level solar power, dramatically “These crazy situations, like AutoDrive increasing the availability of electricity. turning off at the France-Belgium • Low-cost satellite networks, spreading Internet border, should provide an opening to access and creating new economic opportunities educate voters on the costs of virtual in emerging countries. borders. Because often those costs But, in the wake of the Bastille Day attacks, La France aren’t obvious.” au Travail has turned “the-Internet-is-good-for-you” on its head: The party warns that spreading Internet “I recently talked to a leading drone manufacturer access means that more cyber terrorism and about how much effort they’re having to put into criminality will emanate from emerging countries protecting their IP in different jurisdictions—and that are supposed to be the beneficiaries of how that complicates the process of improving the technology. their technology. Among other things, their drones And if that argument carries the day, techno-borders are delivering vaccines to remote areas. The more are unlikely to come down any time soon. efficiently they work, the more lives they save.” THTHEE W WORLDORLD OF OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF ““TETECHCHNONO--PPOLOLIITTIICSCS”” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 25 BUSINESS IMPLICATIONS What does this mean for your business? The weaponization of emerging technologies, Technology is creating such as drones, could lead new sources of reputational to greater government risk for organizations regulation of their use Disaffection with Companies will look for established institutions opportunities to use, and could harm those that demonstrate, the potential are perceived as insiders of technology for good THTHEE W WORLDORLD OF OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF ““TETECHCHNONO--PPOLOLIITTIICSCS”” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

CONTENTS BUSINESS FUTURES | 26 BUSINESS FUTURE #2: REDESIGNING LIFE 28 Trends 30 Today: Analysis 33 Today: Challenges 35 Today: Opportunities 37 Imagining tomorrow: October 1, 2023 43 Imagining tomorrow: Business Implications THE WORLD OF REDEREDESIGSIGNNIINNGG THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LILIFEFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 27 Wearables and apps that boost physical and mental performance have improved employees’ performance in the workplace, while greater longevity and health consciousness have spawned new products and services in a wide range of industries. But the blurring of the boundaries between personal and professional life has raised serious ethical and legal issues. THE WORLD OF REDEREDESIGSIGNNIINNGG THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LILIFEFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 28 TRENDS The trends driving the “redesigning life” future: rising number rising increasing of older people bio-connectivity investments in AI increasing number of growing interest in enhancing massive health data sets human performance THE WORLD OF REDEREDESIGSIGNNIINNGG THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LILIFEFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 29 WHAT’S DRIVING REDESIGNING LIFE TODAY? ANALYSIS “The blurring boundaries between CHALLENGES silicon and biological, artificial OPPORTUNITIES and natural, mechanical and living systems are creating risks and ethical concerns.” Angela Wilkinson, Oxford Futures Limited THE WORLD OF REDEREDESIGSIGNNIINNGG THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LILIFEFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

TODAY: BUSINESS FUTURES | 30 ANALYSIS The dramatic increase United States state, local, and federal governments are estimated to be about US$7 trillion short in funding future in life expectancy in the pension payments for public employees. In addition, the funding past 100 years is one of gap for Social Security and the hospital insurance component 13 of Medicare is estimated at US$16.6 trillion. China’s pensions 14 humankind’s greatest shortfall will probably reach US$11 trillion in the next 20 years. achievements. Yet, the At the same time, chronic illnesses, which lower people’s sheer size of the aging cognitive and physical performance, are more prevalent: the number of people with Alzheimer’s is projected to nearly 15 population is challenging triple by 2050. Mental illnesses also appear to be occurring earlier: rates of depression and anxiety among teenagers 16 public budgets for have increased by 70 percent in the past 25 years. healthcare and retirement. THE WORLD OF REDEREDESIGSIGNNIINNGG THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LILIFEFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

TODAY: BUSINESS FUTURES | 31 ANALYSIS Increasingly, technological innovation is playing an important role in tackling these health concerns—and improving not just life span but also healthspan. Companies such as Neuronetics, BrainsGate and Lumosity are researching brain-boosting 17 technologies. The social impact of self-driving cars will include helping the elderly to be more mobile. Assistive technologies, such as communications robots, are showing some 18 effectiveness with dementia patients. Numerous research institutes, technology titans and startups, such as the SENS Research Foundation and Google-backed Calico, are focused 19 on understanding aging at the level of genes, cells and tissues. At the same time, millions of sensors attached to everyday objects and individuals are creating high volumes of data that are being used not only to measure and track human behavior and performance, but also to predict, alter or enhance it. THE WORLD OF REDEREDESIGSIGNNIINNGG THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LILIFEFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

TODAY: BUSINESS FUTURES | 32 ANALYSIS Wearables, sensors and health apps are empowering individuals to take more control of their well-being and lead healthier lifestyles. Affordable DNA tests offered by companies such as 23andMe and AncestryDNA 20 provide people with information about their genetic profiles, while platforms such 21 as ZocDoc and Haodf expand choices and transparency in healthcare services. In the next three to five years, the growing ability of AI and quantum computing to derive insights from massive data sets may enable the rise of digital avatars capable of answering specific patient queries and scheduling appointments with specialists, and real-time analysis to identify potential problems. Technology could help humans to live lives that are not only longer, but also healthier and happier. THE WORLD OF REDEREDESIGSIGNNIINNGG THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LILIFEFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

TODAY: BUSINESS FUTURES | 33 CHALLENGES Wearables and apps that can improve physical and mental performance have obvious potential to improve employees’ performance in the workplace. But their further blurring of the boundaries between personal and professional life is likely to raise ethical and privacy issues. THE WORLD OF REDEREDESIGSIGNNIINNGG THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LILIFEFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

TODAY: BUSINESS FUTURES | 34 CHALLENGES Data sharing Work-life balance Career paths There could be more debate Concerns will extend beyond and training about several issues—the the workplace. As people As rising life expectancy extent to which employers live longer, companies may challenges the current social can expect employees to need to provide a supportive contract, and leads to more share data, such as their environment for employees pressure on workers to stay in physical movements around whose work-life balance is the workplace beyond current work premises and how often challenged by the practical and retirement age, companies they take a screen break; the psychological burdens of caring could face a greater need to responsibility of companies to for elderly relatives, in the same manage teams of workers prevent the data being hacked; way many companies cater to from several generations—with and possible discrimination employees with young children. not only different strengths against employees deemed to and talents, but also different have a higher risk of being sick. attitudes, raising the risk of stereotypes undermining morale and productivity. Career paths and training programs may need to be rethought to make best use of aging, but nonetheless valuable, talent. THE WORLD OF REDEREDESIGSIGNNIINNGG THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LILIFEFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

TODAY: BUSINESS FUTURES | 35 OPPORTUNITIES Greater longevity and For example, in 2016 Apple acquired Gliimpse, a startup that had built a personal health data platform that enables Americans 22 health consciousness could to collect, personalize, and share their health data. Together present opportunities to with Apple’s CareKit open-source platform, HealthKit app, Apple Watch and iPhone, the company is establishing an end-to-end redesign products and experience for consumers. services in a wide range If the ethical and privacy challenges can be met, many companies of industries. For will be able to improve productivity and safety through wearables in the workplace. For example, wearables with EEG sensors can technology companies, be used to monitor brain activity and help employees with time management by suggesting the best moments to focus there is significant on difficult problems. potential to create value Technologies that enhance cognitive and physical performance by extracting insights should also enable companies to benefit more from loyal and experienced older employees whose productivity might otherwise from health data that decline with age. Elon Musk’s company, Neuralink, is hoping to create devices that can be implanted in human brains. This digital currently exists in silos. layer for human brains could significantly boost intelligence and ultimately create brain-to-brain knowledge networks.23 THE WORLD OF REDEREDESIGSIGNNIINNGG THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LILIFEFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 36 IMAGINING REDESIGNING LIFE TOMORROW OCTOBER 1, 2023 BUSINESS IMPLICATIONS THE WORLD OF REDEREDESIGSIGNNIINNGG THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LILIFEFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 37 OCTOBER 1, 2023 Over lunch, Harvard MBA students are discussing the job offers they have received. Bao Hou will join Taste23, which produces personalized nutrient shakes based on an individual’s DNA profile. Kavi Patel will work on inter-generational wealth transfer products for a top investment firm. Otto Abel is taking up a research role with New Social Contract, the public policy think tank best known for advocating a universal basic income as a response to tech-disrupted labor markets. THE WORLD OF REDEREDESIGSIGNNIINNGG THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LILIFEFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 38 OCTOBER 1, 2023 Two themes emerge from the conversation. Their new roles reflect how rapid improvements in healthcare and longevity are transforming industries and society. And most students are excited about their new employer’s offer to help them better control their health, principally with the aid of wearable technologies. The exception is Kelly Borislavov. Kavi Patel smiles and shrugs: “You don’t worry,” she asks her peers, “I don’t think I’d have had many offers “about giving your employer access if I came across as a privacy freak. to your innermost thoughts?” And why wouldn’t I want to take any “I mean, if the IT department monitors all your EEG opportunity to stay healthy?” readouts, they’ll see if you’re annoyed when you “I love my virtual personal assistant reminding me receive an e-mail from your boss. Or thrilled when to drink and take regular breaks. My employer has a an attractive co-worker invites you for a coffee.” wellness avatar that, if I enable access to my medical history and genetic code, will give me incredibly precise, personal medical advice.” THE WORLD OF REDEREDESIGSIGNNIINNGG THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LILIFEFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 39 OCTOBER 1, 2023 Borislavov isn’t buying it: Otto Abel sees such cases as inevitable wrinkles “And if they let you go? Did you in the transition to a new paradigm. He says: read about that tech employee who “You ain’t seen nothin’ yet. When committed suicide last week?” companies have brain-to-brain “She couldn’t get new medical coverage after knowledge networks via neural she left her job, because insurers could access laces, you won’t be able to opt out all the data her company had collected on her— and still do your job properly.” and none of them were willing to cover her Abel is betting that Chinese companies will embrace medications for depression and psychosis.” the idea and that the United States cannot afford not to. “Anyway, people forget how quickly we all came to accept what the consultants called ‘productivity- enhancing tech.’ As recently as 2017, it was still seen as newsworthy when companies asked their employees to agree to be microchipped.” THE WORLD OF REDEREDESIGSIGNNIINNGG THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LILIFEFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 40 OCTOBER 1, 2023 For older generations, who did not grow up using Abiodun notes that proving you are fit to apps and devices to track everything from their do a job is not a new phenomenon. Aircraft calorie intake to sleep patterns, the workplace engineers, he points out, have always accepted wearables trend has been more of a culture shock. the need for regular physical checks. “What’s Oyibo Abiodun, Associate Professor of Productivity changed with the so-called new Taylorist and Privacy at MIT, notes that opting out is revolution—a technologically driven boom in becoming more frowned upon. “A few maverick measurement similar to that of the 1920s—we’re Wall Street traders, for example, still refuse to have becoming so much better at analyzing employee their hormone levels tracked. But the data are so health data in ways that can significantly impact clear about the link between spiking testosterone a company’s bottom line. That’s especially true and excessive risk taking that most welcome the with older workers. Traditionally, productivity monitoring as a way to do a better job.” declined with age. Now, companies can do a lot to arrest decline, with exoskeletons, for example, or testing employees’ alertness each morning and giving them personalized nootropics (cognitive enhancing drugs).” THE WORLD OF REDEREDESIGSIGNNIINNGG THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LILIFEFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 41 OCTOBER 1, 2023 Cultural attitudes toward workplace wearables Abel also puts those issues in a much larger context. began to shift during the 2020 United States He notes that policy measures, like the Employee presidential election campaign, suggests Abiodum. Family Flexibility Care Act, which gives workers “Both candidates were in their 70s, and both agreed expanded rights to take time off to arrange care for to wear EEG devices and other fitness monitors elderly relatives as well as to look after their children, and make the data publicly available, to prove “are only scratching the surface of what we need to voters that they weren’t too old for the job.” to think about. There’s: Otto Abel, the student going to work at New • Urban planning—how can we make housing Social Contract, agrees that the 2020 campaign work for four or five generations living in the put several aging-related issues onto the public same place? agenda. He notes that life used to be viewed as • How can we afford pensions, Social Security separate stages: education, work, retirement. and Medicare? But working lives have become more fluid, he says. “Now people pre-retire, working part-time • Credible projections that global population for a decade or two. They un-retire. And during could reach 14 billion: Can the world support the campaign, people talked much more about that many people? these issues.” • And, now that good health in old age is more a matter of personal responsibility for lifestyle than getting lucky with your genes, how should healthcare policy reflect that?” THE WORLD OF REDEREDESIGSIGNNIINNGG THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LILIFEFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 42 OCTOBER 1, 2023 While leaders struggle with those questions— or try to ignore them—companies are busily redesigning products and services to reflect the longer-lived society. Kelly Borislavov has a job lined up with one such firm, Oldr, a startup helping older people stay safe and connected. The company uses AI to simplify tasks, such as video calling and online shopping, and its apps can monitor everything from an elderly person’s activity around the home to transactions on their bank account, alerting family members to any unusual patterns. Better still for Borislavov, Oldr is taking a stand against workplace wearables. “It’s a perfect fit for me,” she says with a smile. “The founder is as skeptical as I am about AI-Taylorism. Yes, we can track how productivity increases, but not the unintended consequences.” Borislavov continues: “Does pervasive micro-tracking suppress creativity? Will personalized nootropics create addiction problems? My new boss likes that I value my privacy. She says that it helps me to understand the target market.” THE WORLD OF REDEREDESIGSIGNNIINNGG THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LILIFEFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 43 BUSINESS IMPLICATIONS What does this mean for your business? An intense focus Cognitive enhancement on quantification and offerings to employees productivity metrics could become a new could have countervailing dimension in competing effects on creativity for talent Transparency on the use New exclusions could of customer and employee emerge, giving rise to a data, and ways to safeguard class of “uninsurables” it, will become the subject of major public debate THE WORLD OF REDEREDESIGSIGNNIINNGG THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LILIFEFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

CONTENTS BUSINESS FUTURES | 44 BUSINESS FUTURE #3: THE IMAGINATION ECONOMY 46 Trends 48 Today: Analysis 50 Today: Challenges 51 Today: Opportunities 54 Imagining tomorrow: October 1, 2023 61 Imagining tomorrow: Business Implications THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THTHEE I IMAMAGIGINANATIONTION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE E ECONOMYCONOMY (IN)SECURITY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 45 Advances in virtualization and immersive technologies have dramatically altered the way the world does business, with the wholesale reevaluation of strategies, business models and operations across many industries and sectors. THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THTHEE I IMAMAGIGINANATIONTION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE E ECONOMYCONOMY (IN)SECURITY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 46 TRENDS The trends driving “the imagination economy” future: increasing demand increasing economic greater environmental for “experiences” nationalism concerns growing consumer rising importance of and enterprise appetite for innovation and speed as immersive technologies critical success factors THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THTHEE I IMAMAGIGINANATIONTION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE E ECONOMYCONOMY (IN)SECURITY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 47 WHAT’S DRIVING THE IMAGINATION ECONOMY TODAY? ANALYSIS “The Imagination Economy will CHALLENGES create and disrupt economic value OPPORTUNITIES across multiple industries.” Tim Harford, author, “Fifty Things That Made The Modern Economy” THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THTHEE I IMAMAGIGINANATIONTION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE E ECONOMYCONOMY (IN)SECURITY

TODAY: BUSINESS FUTURES | 48 ANALYSIS Despite the remarkable However, increasingly, advances in virtualization and immersive technologies are able to transport us into an entirely virtual progress of technology, world or seamlessly bring virtual data into the real world. from the telegraph to After years of research and development (R&D) and investment, these technologies are becoming more affordable and gradually fax machines to video- migrating from gaming to other industries. conferencing, the physical Virtual reality (VR) could mean there will be less and less practical constraints of distance difference between what can be achieved by someone who is physically in the office and by a remote worker whose presence and geography still in meetings—and in chats at the water cooler—is virtual. Indeed, eventually, there may be no need to maintain physical offices, shape how we live, work, as remote workers interact entirely in a virtual office environment. produce and consume. Products could be designed more quickly and economically in a virtual reality world. Rather than building physical prototypes to look for mistakes, engineers and researchers would be able to spot errors in VR at an earlier point in development. Ford is already using VR in its vehicle design.24 Augmented reality (AR) can also be used to improve manufacturing accuracy and productivity: Displaying work instructions on the objects being handled means workers no longer need to look away from what they are doing to see the next step in an instruction manual. THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THTHEE I IMAMAGIGINANATIONTION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE E ECONOMYCONOMY (IN)SECURITY

TODAY: BUSINESS FUTURES | 49 ANALYSIS Virtual reality could transform the entertainment industry, In the next three to enabling live events, such as sports competitions and concerts, to be experienced remotely in a more immersive way, and with five years, the growing no capacity restrictions—everyone will be able to occupy the best penetration of immersive seat in the stadium. VR should also enable virtual tourism, creating technologies could an immersive, multi-sensory simulation of what it is like to visit fundamentally change famous landmarks and experience new cultures. Marriott Hotels how we interact with has been testing virtual reality experiences, enabling guests to experience immersive travel stories shot in destinations such as the world, blurring the the Andes or the streets of Beijing, by providing Samsung Gear boundaries between the VR headsets.25 real and the virtual in a The retail industry is also likely to be transformed by VR, since new imagination economy. shopping is already evolving into something akin to entertainment. Alibaba and eBay are among online retailers that have launched VR stores, and immersive technologies could offer consumers new ways to compare products and interact with samples.26 THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THTHEE I IMAMAGIGINANATIONTION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE E ECONOMYCONOMY (IN)SECURITY

TODAY: BUSINESS FUTURES | 50 CHALLENGES The imagination economy is likely to call for businesses in many sectors to reevaluate their strategies, business models and operations. Retail Manufacturing Workplaces As virtual reality becomes In manufacturing, shorter Workplaces may need to change their culture an increasingly acceptable product cycles enabled by and training procedures to support more virtual substitute for physical VR and AR may change collaboration and enable tasks to be performed experiences, such as business consumer expectations by less experienced employees, with the help of travel, tourism, entertainment and create pressure on all augmented reality instructions. Companies will events and mall shopping, businesses to keep up. There need to judge the pace at which they transition industries that rely on brick is significant uncertainty to virtual ways of working. Prematurely relying on and mortar may need to about how widespread use immersive technologies that are not yet sufficiently look for new sources of of XR could impact intellectual reliable could be as much of a mistake as trying to competitive advantage. One property and other legal and come to grips with the phenomenon too late in the possible result is changing regulatory issues. game. Employees and customers alike may also have patterns in real estate values. privacy concerns, as activities are easier to track in virtual than physical reality. Shifting more activities into virtual environments increases vulnerability to hacking, spoofing and outages in connectivity. THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THTHEE I IMAMAGIGINANATIONTION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE E ECONOMYCONOMY (IN)SECURITY

TODAY: BUSINESS FUTURES | 51 OPPORTUNITIES Physical infrastructure and This could become a solution to growing negative sentiment toward economic migrants, by reducing distance might become less the need to physically relocate for work. But it also of a concern when companies raises the question of whether policymakers will bring in controls around the movement of work, make choices of location, with rather than the movement of people. teams of “holoployees” being From training to multitasking to prototyping, VR able to collaborate across and AR look set to create new ways for companies in many industries to improve their productivity and borders as easily as teams based agility. First-day hires, guided by augmented reality instructions, may start to become as productive in the same physical location. as experienced workers. THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THTHEE I IMAMAGIGINANATIONTION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE E ECONOMYCONOMY (IN)SECURITY

TODAY: BUSINESS FUTURES | 52 OPPORTUNITIES The imagination economy It is likely to become easier to build audiences in new markets without establishing a physical will create a highly disruptive presence, and to reach consumers in new ways— environment, with the potential for example, by creating VR kiosks in high-traffic areas such as metro stations. New ways of shopping for young companies to emerge should also create rich data that companies can as dominant players by being use to improve their offerings. For example, the Canadian Tire store, offering a wide range of home the first to understand how XR products, provides consumers with VR so that they experiences can create new kinds can experiment with new designs for their patios.27 of value—perhaps by interacting with other XR experiences. THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THTHEE I IMAMAGIGINANATIONTION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE E ECONOMYCONOMY (IN)SECURITY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 53 IMAGINING THE IMAGINATION ECONOMY TOMORROW OCTOBER 1, 2023 BUSINESS IMPLICATIONS THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THTHEE I IMAMAGIGINANATIONTION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE E ECONOMYCONOMY (IN)SECURITY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 54 OCTOBER 1, 2023 “Isn’t this amazing?” Manami turns to her friend, Kotone, and sees that her eyes are wide with wonder. In fact, the eyes she sees are not those of her friend but of an avatar that looks exactly like Kotone. The avatar’s expressions are being generated, in real time, through sensors attached to Kotone’s head, along with her extended reality (XR) headset. Kotone grins and nods—and so does her avatar. THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THTHEE I IMAMAGIGINANATIONTION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE E ECONOMYCONOMY (IN)SECURITY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 55 OCTOBER 1, 2023 Manami and Kotone are enjoying a private extended reality tour of Machu Picchu. They have the place to themselves, apart from a virtual guide who can be summoned when they have questions. In physical reality, Manami and Kotone are in a Tokyo branch of VirTur, the company that was among the pioneers of XR tourism and is rapidly becoming a giant of the burgeoning XR economy, which ranges from augmenting the current physical world (AR) to creating new virtual, computer-simulated worlds (VR). They are in a climate-controlled room, where the air is cooled, thinned and scented like an Andean forest. “There will always be some people who shun XR tourism, saying it is a pale imitation of physical travel,” admits Yori Koizumi, CEO of VirTur. But, as he is quick to point out, XR tours are available at a fraction of the price: “Value has always been related to scarcity—only so many people can visit Machu Picchu at once. In XR, that’s no longer true.” Indeed, Koizumi argues that the XR experience is actually better in some ways: No endless plane journeys. No mobs of tourists. No environmental damage. THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THTHEE I IMAMAGIGINANATIONTION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE E ECONOMYCONOMY (IN)SECURITY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 56 OCTOBER 1, 2023 In addition to visiting historical sites in the present, VirTur also offers recreations and imagined alternative realities. Says Koizumi, “When you’re touring Machu Picchu, you can toggle between the site as it is now and how it would have looked when constructed. If you want to, you can watch a 15th-century Inca human sacrifice.” It’s the twin impact of what he calls “the imagination economy”: “First, you can do the same things cheaper, faster and eco-friendlier. Second, you can do creative, new things.” Koizumi runs VirTur entirely through XR, using a platform his company developed and is now marketing to other enterprises. As we conduct this interview, I am in my kitchen in Dublin, Ireland, while Koizumi, he tells me, is at his beach house in Okinawa, Japan. But we both appear to be in VirTur’s impressive boardroom, high in a skyscraper with sweeping views over downtown Tokyo. In fact, the boardroom itself is entirely virtual; VirTur no longer has a physical headquarters. “The world is finally starting to transcend physical constraints,” Koizumi says. “As late as the 2010s, people thought there would never be an adequate substitute for face-to-face. They couldn’t imagine how immersive XR would become. People said long-distance phone calls were the ‘death of distance’; then they said the same about video calls. But, with XR, it’s finally true.” THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THTHEE I IMAMAGIGINANATIONTION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE E ECONOMYCONOMY (IN)SECURITY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 57 OCTOBER 1, 2023 Not everyone is favorably impressed. More than Business travel is one market being squeezed by XR; it is set to experience 5 million fans negative growth in 2023, for the first time since 2009. Others have blamed virtually attended XR for low growth in self-driving car sales, even as the market for self-driving One Direction’s one- delivery vans is booming. off reunion concert at But the naysayers appear to be in the minority. Well beyond the travel and London’s O2 Arena, tourism sectors, gross domestic product (GDP) is already shifting dramatically to making it one of the the imagination economy. In the entertainment industry, for example, XR games biggest live-streaming continue to dominate; however, the live-streaming of events has also boomed. events to date. The biggest live-streaming event to date came last month, when more than five million fans virtually attended One Direction’s one-off reunion concert at London’s O2 Arena. That record is expected to be overtaken when football’s World Cup kicks off in Qatar next month, an event for which VirTur is FIFA’s official XR partner. One decision is already causing controversy: With rumors of low ticket sales and few fans planning to travel to Qatar, VirTur is offering an “Enhanced Atmosphere” option, replacing the real stadium crowds—or the possible absence of them—with computer-generated fans. XR critic Dex Leigh, author of the recent best-seller, “What Is Real? XR, Fantasy and the Future of Humanity,” calls it “a worrying new milestone in the fragmentation of shared experience.” THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THTHEE I IMAMAGIGINANATIONTION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE E ECONOMYCONOMY (IN)SECURITY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 58 OCTOBER 1, 2023 Koizumi acknowledges concerns, but offers a counterpoint: XR is also helping us to understand reality better. “We recently worked with Caltech on an app for physics courses, enabling students to experience virtually what reality would look like if we could see it operating at a quantum scale.” The same goes for Leigh’s argument that XR addiction is becoming the new opioid crisis. “Don’t forget XR has medical applications, too,” says Koizumi, “like helping to treat post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in soldiers.” In industry, it is augmented reality (one aspect of XR) rather than virtual reality that is transforming how employees are trained in technical skills. The ability to display instructions in real time removes the need for a worker to switch between a task and reading a manual. According to a recent OECD report, “Headsets On: The Manufacturing Impact of XR,” this is significantly improving both accuracy and productivity. New products are reaching the market more quickly as XR eliminates the need to build physical prototypes. However, XR is also contributing to downward pressure on wages in advanced economies, since new hires can often be almost as productive as workers with lengthy experience. THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THTHEE I IMAMAGIGINANATIONTION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE E ECONOMYCONOMY (IN)SECURITY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 59 OCTOBER 1, 2023 Back in Tokyo, Manami and Kotone have returned from Machu Picchu and gone shopping. They sit in a coffee shop while wearing XR headsets and strolling virtual aisles, advising each other on how their avatars look wearing the latest fashions. Kotone buys a dress from Chika, which last week closed its boutique in downtown Tokyo and now operates solely from a distribution center in the suburbs. The dress will be delivered to her apartment by the time she gets home. As retailers offload expensive, consumer-facing premises, and companies using VirTur’s platform rely more on work-from-home “holoployees,” commercial real estate values are in flux. Some predict that residential real estate patterns will also shift, as fewer people will want to pay a premium to live close to theaters or restaurants. Shanghai and Rio are among cities that have announced the cancellation of planned infrastructure upgrades, anticipating less use of public transportation. THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THTHEE I IMAMAGIGINANATIONTION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE E ECONOMYCONOMY (IN)SECURITY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 60 OCTOBER 1, 2023 As the clock in the virtual boardroom approaches the hour, Koizumi needs to conclude our interview. He has an appointment with his intellectual property lawyer: A rival XR tourism startup is challenging VirTur’s exclusive deal with Peru’s government, which makes it illegal for other providers to render Machu Picchu in virtual form. He is alerted to the time by a secretary opening the door, nodding apologetically in my direction, and saying: “Mr Koizumi? Your next appointment.” Koizumi grins at me. “Our latest implementation of the calendar pop-up,” he says. “Do you like it?” THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THTHEE I IMAMAGIGINANATIONTION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE E ECONOMYCONOMY (IN)SECURITY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 61 BUSINESS IMPLICATIONS What does this mean for your business? Fast, reliable connectivity will Organizations will reassess become the defining issue their real estate portfolio, in making extended reality e.g., a clothing retailer shifting experiences successful from stores and warehouses to VR pop-ups Companies will need to Organizational culture proactively consider their will be strengthened by responsibilities toward ethical shared virtual experiences issues, such as addiction, that arise in the VR economy THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THTHEE I IMAMAGIGINANATIONTION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE E ECONOMYCONOMY (IN)SECURITY

CONTENTS BUSINESS FUTURES | 62 BUSINESS FUTURE #4: THE AGE OF (IN)SECURITY 64 Trends 66 Today: Analysis 68 Today: Challenges 71 Today: Opportunities 73 Imagining tomorrow: October 1, 2023 79 Imagining tomorrow: Business Implications THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION TTHHE AE AGGE OE OFF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY ((IINN))SESECUCURITRITYY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 63 Our increasingly connected, data-driven and virtualized world has greatly improved how people live and work. That is the good news. The bad news? The same technology has also led to greater vulnerability to massive breaches in cybersecurity. THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION TTHHE AE AGGE OE OFF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY ((IINN))SESECUCURITRITYY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 64 TRENDS The trends driving the “age of (in)security” future: massive increase rising number and increased use of in the world of sensors cost of cyber threats cyber attacks as a geopolitical tool increased role emergence of “fake growth in the of non-state actors news” technologies adoption of data-driven in geopolitics decision making THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION TTHHE AE AGGE OE OFF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY ((IINN))SESECUCURITRITYY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 65 WHAT’S DRIVING THE AGE OF (IN)SECURITY TODAY? ANALYSIS “In a hyper connected world, CHALLENGES the potential vulnerabilities OPPORTUNITIES multiply significantly.” Sir John Sawers, Chairman & Partner of Macro Advisory Partners THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION TTHHE AE AGGE OE OFF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY ((IINN))SESECUCURITRITYY

TODAY: BUSINESS FUTURES | 66 ANALYSIS With an ever-growing New cars, for example, currently have somewhere between 60 and 100 sensors—a number projected to reach 200 as number of sensors the sensors get smarter. The auto industry alone is expected to 29 generating more and install approximately 22 billion sensors in its products by 2020. There is projected to be an order-of-magnitude increase in data 30 more data, estimates being generated between 2015 and 2020. Already in 2016, the Internet handled more traffic every few seconds than it did indicate the world will during the whole of 1992.31 have more connected Our increasingly connected, data-driven and virtualized world things than humans by has greatly improved how people live and work, but has also led 28 to greater vulnerabilities. In 2016, there were 15 separate mega the end of 2017. data breaches, that is, a breach where more than 10 million 32 identities are stolen. In 2017, the ransomware WannaCry exploited a vulnerability in Microsoft’s Windows operating system to lock up more than 300,000 computers in factories, hospitals, shops, 33 schools and governments in 150 countries. THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION TTHHE AE AGGE OE OFF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY ((IINN))SESECUCURITRITYY

TODAY: BUSINESS FUTURES | 67 ANALYSIS Hackers can take down entire online Global spending on platforms or physical infrastructure. cybersecurity software, services and hardware In 2015, a hack on Ukraine’s power grid left 700,000 people is expected to reach 34 without electricity for several hours. In 2016, a “botnet” of almost nearly half a million connected devices, including webcams and digital video recorders, rendered websites such as Twitter and PayPal US$120 billion 35 unavailable. Compared to previous eras, in which only a few 38 large states generally had the tools to take down infrastructure by 2021. Increasingly, on a massive scale, today’s geopolitical climate is more complex. security is a central Meanwhile, the destructive capacity of terrorist and criminal groups consideration for many is growing, and attacks are harder to attribute with confidence. companies; for example, Amazon’s cloud business, Increasingly, cyber attacks impose serious financial and AWS, purchased cybersecurity reputational impacts on business. In 2015, Fiat Chrysler recalled company harvest.ai in 2017.39 1.4 million vehicles after technology researchers showed they could hack a Jeep Cherokee, remotely taking control of its engine, 36 brakes and steering. Yahoo was hit by 43 consumer class action lawsuits after three data breaches between 2013 and 2016, which exposed a total of more than 3.5 billion accounts.37 THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION TTHHE AE AGGE OE OFF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY ((IINN))SESECUCURITRITYY

TODAY: BUSINESS FUTURES | 68 CHALLENGES As online security Windows XP, for example, is a 15-year-old operating system that has had no security updates since 2014 considerations become more but still runs on nearly 6.5 percent of the world’s 40 pressing, organizations are computers. Some of those computers are housed inside specialist tools: As a United Kingdom National likely to face difficult choices Health Service cybersecurity expert pointed out, “you wouldn’t throw out your MRI scanner because between assessing the risks 41 involved with leaving insecure it’s got XP.” systems in place and paying for the expense of an upgrade. THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION TTHHE AE AGGE OE OFF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY ((IINN))SESECUCURITRITYY

TODAY: BUSINESS FUTURES | 69 CHALLENGES Growing security concerns These concerns may dissuade businesses from embracing some important opportunities. Open may create the risk of a large- source and collaborative culture can spur innovation scale social backlash against and improve user experience by opening their product life cycle to a wider range of contributors, platforms that are perceived such as third-party developers and customers. to be insecure. For example, the Android system is both praised by users for the convenience of having a variety of free apps available through its app store, and criticized for how many of those apps are poor quality or malware. However, security concerns might stop organizations from tapping into those opportunities. THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION TTHHE AE AGGE OE OFF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY ((IINN))SESECUCURITRITYY

TODAY: BUSINESS FUTURES | 70 CHALLENGES As the capabilities of artificial For example, researchers from the University of Washington have recently used AI to create a video intelligence (AI) expand, it is of former U.S. President Obama speaking, raising likely to create new threats. the prospect of highly convincing fake audio-visual material that could be used to manipulate and 42 misdirect. AI is also likely to make it easier for malicious individuals to collect and exploit sensitive information about other individuals. THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION TTHHE AE AGGE OE OFF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY ((IINN))SESECUCURITRITYY

TODAY: BUSINESS FUTURES | 71 OPPORTUNITIES Advances in AI create not only For instance, Cylance, an American technology firm founded in 2012, is using machine learning challenges to cybersecurity, but to analyze past attacks with the aim of detecting also opportunities to improve it. and blocking viruses or malware before they harm 43 users’ computers. More generally, as nascent Internet of Things ecosystems develop standards and frameworks that can enable acceptable levels of both compatibility between devices and cybersecurity, there are likely to be good opportunities for becoming an industry leader. Defining appropriate levels of security for different classes of data, implementing security practices consistently throughout value chains, and assigning responsibility for defending connected ecosystems against cyber attacks are among the issues up for discussion. THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION TTHHE AE AGGE OE OFF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY ((IINN))SESECUCURITRITYY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 72 IMAGINING THE AGE OF (IN)SECURITY TOMORROW OCTOBER 1, 2023 BUSINESS IMPLICATIONS THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION TTHHE AE AGGE OE OFF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY ((IINN))SESECUCURITRITYY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 73 OCTOBER 1, 2023 An interview with Following the assassination of Senator Acker, cybersecurity is once again Kalos Herczeg, CEO, dominating the headlines. Were you The Securating surprised to learn how apparently easy Foundation it is to hack a pacemaker? Kalos Herczeg: Unfortunately, not at all. Some of us have been voicing concerns for years about the vulnerability of connected devices. But it was still shocking to watch, especially when it came out that they’d hacked the pacemaker manufacturer’s Twitter account and tweeted out a countdown to Acker’s death. I was following it all on the verified newsfeed tick in the corner of my screen, thinking how unreal it was. THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION TTHHE AE AGGE OE OFF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY ((IINN))SESECUCURITRITYY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 74 OCTOBER 1, 2023 Do you trust the verified On a happier note, you were What were the lessons newsfeed? in the news again this week learned from that incident? KH: You can’t entirely trust anything when ThingSafe became the KH: It revealed how ill-prepared these days, can you? However, it’s first company to achieve an many organizations are. We saw a useful tool, and I do think we’re AAA score from Securating. people locked out of their homes, getting better at verification. I How high a standard does cars stopping in the middle of the don’t know if you saw it, but it was that represent? highway, holoployees bumped briefly—and erroneously—reported KH: It means there’s nothing we off their corporate platforms, XR that the CIA had announced that it think they could reasonably do to shopping malls unable to take was a “state-sponsored” terrorist increase their security. Of course, payments. One of the things we attack, and people started freaking we’re not saying it’s impossible to assess in the Securating process out. Thankfully, that was rapidly hack them. Nobody is bulletproof. is how robust a company’s shut down. It now looks like it was And, like every company, there’s contingency plans are for such a domestic extremist. a limit to what they can do when outages. Obviously, in many cases a cyber attack takes the Internet those plans were inadequate, offline, as happened across the to say the least. East Coast last Tuesday. THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION TTHHE AE AGGE OE OFF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY ((IINN))SESECUCURITRITYY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 75 OCTOBER 1, 2023 For anyone who still isn’t familiar What does the assessment with Securating, who are you and process involve? what do you do? KH: We send a team into the organization KH: The Securating Foundation was set up by itself to ask questions and look at its setup. a group of Silicon Valley philanthropists who And, we work with teams of white-hat perceived the need for a kind of quality assurance hackers who try to take them down. That’s scheme for online security—like “organic” labels an ongoing service, by the way. The in-house on food—to guide consumers who are looking assessments are periodical, but a company for a higher set of standards. We hoped to create can have its rating downgraded at any time a virtuous circle effect. The more consumers if we find a vulnerability and we don’t think reward companies for having demonstrably good they deal with it quickly enough. security, the more these companies will feature a good Securating score in their advertising, the more consumers will pick up the idea that this is something they ought to care about—and the higher the number of companies who will pay us to rate them. THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION TTHHE AE AGGE OE OFF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY ((IINN))SESECUCURITRITYY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 76 OCTOBER 1, 2023 How does it work? We see the Securating logo everywhere What sort of criteria do you use? now, but you started only 18 months ago. KH: We do have a checklist of criteria, of course. People talk about “insecurity anxiety” But there’s also a lot of judgment involved—it’s being at an all-time high. Is that why not just a box-checking exercise. This kind of you’ve grown so fast? benchmarking in security is relatively new. Only a KH: That’s part of it. More and more of our lives few years ago, companies used crude measures, are effectively lived online, and increasingly in like what percentage of their IT budget was spent XR. It’s almost taken for granted. But few people on security. And the threats are changing all the truly understand the risks and the kind of security time. We’re currently developing criteria, required. In the Cold War, for example, at least for example, to assess companies’ preparedness the balance of power was known. Everyone to deal with sudden and unexpected changes understood the weapons and the logic of in data regulations, as more countries erect deterrence. It was actually rather predictable. digital borders. THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION TTHHE AE AGGE OE OFF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY ((IINN))SESECUCURITRITYY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 77 OCTOBER 1, 2023 And today it’s different? Most consumer surveys What else is worrying people? KH: Dramatically. Think of all the show that trust in a company’s KH: The growing sophistication of variables: fragmented geopolitical ability to secure their data phishing, for one thing. A few years competition, terrorist and criminal has become a top priority. ago, phishing e-mails would have networks, and ever-evolving ways What’s changed to make highly suspect story lines—“I’m to mount virtual attacks due to the that happen? the widow of the former Nigerian built-in security risks posed by lax KH: Some high-profile cases have defense minister”—and be riddled controls in current technologies. made people more conscious of with spelling errors. Now, scammers the value of their data, and the have got AI collating information consequences of being hacked. from various hacked sources Remember JagoBank last year? and are creating highly plausible, When its employee wellness service personalized spoofed messages was compromised, and people had like, “Hey, I’m at Sally’s. Can you text their most intimate medical details me the PayPal password so I can posted online? pay for the pizza?” THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION TTHHE AE AGGE OE OFF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY ((IINN))SESECUCURITRITYY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 78 OCTOBER 1, 2023 Isn’t there also a feeling that Should governments be doing you can’t escape it? more on data security? KH: Exactly. So more and more, consumers KH: Have you seen the proposition on are looking for companies they feel they the California ballot, the one that makes can trust to minimize the chance of something it illegal to own a connected device without bad happening. Some incumbents are being adequate protection against malware? Hopefully caught by surprise by the rise of companies that’s a sign of legislation to come. But knee- that have put security at the center of their offer, jerk reactions to data nationalism from some rather than price or convenience; companies governments have actually complicated security, like ThingSafe, which manages all a household’s because those measures haven’t been well connected devices and the data generated. thought through. Ultimately, regulators will always struggle to keep up with fast-changing industries—that’s why I prefer our approach of starting a market-driven race to the top. THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION TTHHE AE AGGE OE OFF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY ((IINN))SESECUCURITRITYY

IMAGINING TOMORROW: BUSINESS FUTURES | 79 BUSINESS IMPLICATIONS What does this mean for your business? Security will become a Organizations will need competitive advantage An organization’s to prepare for a world for companies, responsibilities for where it’s not about and league tables cybersecurity will “if” you get hacked, could emerge to be equal to those for but “when” you do help consumers and physical security customers choose Return on investments Organizations can benefit in technologies such as by leading in setting an AI and blockchain can be industry-wide or ecosystem- maximized by using them wide framework for specific to improve cybersecurity cybersecurity issues THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION TTHHE AE AGGE OE OFF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY ((IINN))SESECUCURITRITYY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 80 CONCLUSION The four Business Futures outlined “The big winners sense are intended to be not only the future differently.” exercises in imagination, but also Professor Gary Hamel, London the basis for practical decision Business School making and action. For every organization, the key questions for each future will differ. THTHEE W WORLDORLD OF OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF ““TETECHCHNONO--PPOLOLITICSITICS”” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 81 CONCLUSION Imagine how your organization would fare, in its current shape, in the operating environments we have described: What changes would you consider if you knew that such a future would come about? How robust are the possible options to the possibility of future developments unfolding differently? We encourage leaders to think beyond our four futures. Select different trends, combine them in new ways, and ask what kind of future their interplay would create. In a world defined by the collision and interplay of those trends, what headlines could you expect to see? And what questions are raised by this potential tomorrow that you need to consider today? Preparing for the future will never be an exact science. It will always require judgment calls that combine positioning for success in the most likely-seeming futures with hedging against inherent uncertainty. The Business Futures methodology is a new tool for CEOs to clarify and structure their approach. THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 82 OUR APPROACH As a starting point, we identified more than 100 existing cybersecurity was negative 27 percent of the time in 2017, and emerging global, cross-industry trends that will compared to 9 percent for virtual reality and 8 percent for affect businesses in the medium and long-term—from macroeconomic conditions. climate change to sustainability to the evolving role of We used text analytics to assess the focus of the China on the world stage. To do this, we scanned more discussion on venture capital money flows, as a way than 300 sources from the demographic and societal, to track interest in different technologies. Our mapping economic, geopolitical, environmental, organizational of connections among sectors showed a high volume of and technological spheres. chatter on healthcare, AI and blockchain, and connections Each of the futures explored in these pages emerges in geographies found growing attention to emerging from the interaction of a different set of five of these technology countries, including China, India and Israel. trends. However, there are many ways to select a cluster We also examined the 300 most influential English blogs of five from a hundred. How did we decide which of the in politics, economics and technology to spot emerging possible futures to focus on? We used word analytics tools hot topics. to filter and cluster the trends. Based on text analysis of Together, these inputs enabled us to look at the more than 7,000 speeches by CEOs, we identified which relationships among different trends and cluster them topics are on the minds of business executives; in 2017, into selected groups, which we tested with our advisory for example, social media and AI topped the list of topics panel. To explore the implications of these futures for mentioned in CEO speeches. organizations, we engaged with internal and external Our sentiment analysis of these topics also showed us that experts, from futurists to entrepreneurs and industry CEOs are particularly concerned about geopolitics and analysts, through a series of interviews and workshops. cybersecurity. For example, the sentiment associated with THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

BUSINESS FUTURES | 84 THE PROJECT ADVISORS BRUNO GIUSSANI PROFESSOR GARY HAMEL TIM HARFORD VIKRAM MEHTA European director, TED, and London Business School Author, “Fifty Things That Chairman, Brookings India Co-founder, Giussani Group Made The Modern Economy” and Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution NADER MOUSAVIZADEH SIR JOHN SAWERS ANGELA WILKINSON Co-founder & Co-CEO of Chairman & Partner of Macro Oxford Futures Limited Macro Advisory Partners Advisory Partners Tim Harford photo credit: Fran Monks THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

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BUSINESS FUTURES | 83 ABOUT THE AUTHORS MARK PURDY ATHENA PEPPES BILL LESIEUR SUNING AN Managing Director Thought Leadership Technology R&D Principal, Research Specialist, and Chief Economist, Research Manager, Accenture Labs Accenture Research Accenture Research Accenture Research Silicon Valley, United States Beijing, China London, United Kingdom London, United Kingdom [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] This project has been led by Accenture Research with expert input from Accenture Labs Acknowledgements We would like to thank the following individuals for their contributions: Omar Abbosh, Adi Allon, Michael J. Biltz, Sarah Bird, Paul Bjacek, Renee Byrnes, Susan Cozzolino, David Cudaback, Gwen Harrigan, Francis Hintermann, Dave Light, Nicolas Loterstein, Paul Nunes, Armen Ovanessoff, Eduardo Plastino, Ryan Shanks, Sarah Thomas, Andrew Wright. THE WORLD OF REDESIGNING THE IMAGINATION THE AGE OF “TECHNO-POLITICS” LIFE ECONOMY (IN)SECURITY

INTERESTED? ABOUT ACCENTURE Accenture is a leading global professional services company, providing a broad range of services VISIT: and solutions in strategy, consulting, digital, technology and operations. Combining unmatched accenture.com/businessfutures experience and specialized skills across more than 40 industries and all business functions— underpinned by the world’s largest delivery network—Accenture works at the intersection of business and technology to help clients improve their performance and create sustainable value for their READ: stakeholders. With more than 435,000 people serving clients in more than 120 countries, Accenture “The rise of the drives innovation to improve the way the world works and lives. Visit us at www.accenture.com. imagination economy” ABOUT ACCENTURE RESEARCH Accenture Research shapes trends and creates data-driven insights about the most pressing issues global organizations face. Combining the power of innovative research techniques with a deep understanding of our clients’ industries, our team of 250 researchers and analysts spans 23 countries and publishes hundreds of reports, articles and points of view every year. Our thought- provoking research—supported by proprietary data and partnerships with leading organizations such as MIT and Singularity—guides our innovations and allows us to transform theories and fresh ideas into real-world solutions for our clients. Visit us at www.accenture.com/research. ABOUT ACCENTURE LABS Accenture Labs incubates and prototypes new concepts through applied R&D projects that are expected to have a significant strategic impact on clients’ businesses. Our dedicated team of technologists and researchers work with leaders across the company to invest in, incubate and deliver breakthrough ideas and solutions that help our clients create new sources of Copyright © 2018 Accenture. All rights reserved. business advantage. Accenture, its logo, and High Performance. Delivered. Accenture Labs is located in seven key research hubs around the world: Silicon Valley, CA; are trademarks of Accenture. Sophia Antipolis, France; Arlington, Virginia; Beijing, China; Bangalore, India; Herzliya, Israel This document makes reference to trademarks owned and Dublin, Ireland. The Labs collaborates extensively with Accenture’s network of nearly by third parties. All such third-party trademarks are the 400 innovation centers, studios and centers of excellence located in 92 cities and 35 countries property of their respective owners. No sponsorship, globally to deliver cutting-edge research, insights and solutions to clients where they operate endorsement or approval of this content by the owners of such trademarks is intended, expressed or implied. and live. For more information, please visit www.accenture.com/labs.