Report

#TechVision Technology Vision 2022 Meet Me in the Metaverse The continuum of technology and experience, reshaping business From insights to action, the path to extraordinary value starts here.

Meet Me in the Metaverse Foreword Businesses are racing toward a future very different from the one they were designed to operate in. Are you ready for the metaverse? This question is at the blockchain, digital twins, edge technologies and beyond. reimagine how you will approach your business for heart of our 2022 Technology Vision. Like many emerging As the next evolution of the internet, the metaverse will the next decade – which worlds you will define and technologies, experts differ in how to define it, and there be a continuum of rapidly emerging capabilities, use design, starting now. While we are at the early days of is a great deal of hype being generated. Most of the focus cases, technologies and experiences. And as we evolve the metaverse, it will advance very quickly. If companies is on the consumer applications of the metaverse, and the Metaverse Continuum, we must seize the opportunity don’t act now, they’ll find themselves operating in worlds many dismiss it as a consideration for the future. We have to ensure that it is developed with responsibility at the designed by, and for, someone else. a different view. The metaverse is actionable today, and core. From ownership of data, to inclusion and diversity, leaders must be ready. In this year’s Technology Vision, to sustainability and through to security and personal We look forward to exploring the Metaverse Continuum we present a distinctive and broader perspective that safety, this work must begin now. and our four trends with you as we build the future goes well beyond the current prevailing wisdom: the together, today. Metaverse Continuum. We are on the threshold of a new decade of digital transformation, and at a defining moment for all We see the metaverse as a continuum that spans the leaders. The Metaverse Continuum will transform spectrum of digitally enhanced worlds, realities and how businesses interact with customers, how work business models. It applies across all aspects of business, is done, what products and services companies from consumer to worker and across the entire enterprise; offer, how they make and distribute them, and from reality to virtual and back; from 2D to 3D; and from fundamentally how they operate their organizations. Julie Sweet Paul Daugherty cloud and artificial intelligence to extended reality, Leaders need to step back and fundamentally Chief Executive Officer Group Chief Executive - Technology & Chief Technology Officer Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 2

Meet Me in the Metaverse n io s i V y og l hno2 c2 e0 Contents T2 WebMe Programmable The Unreal Computing Putting the Me World Making Synthetic, the Impossible in Metaverse Our Planet, Authentic New Machines, Personalized New Possibilities 21 40 55 72 Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 3

Meet Me in the Metaverse n io s i V y og l hno2 c 2 e 0 T 2 On an ordinary day in 2030, a construction foreman is operating a road roller at a worksite in California. He and his coworker talk as they direct a His AI assistant reappears to direct him towards construction robot to lay down asphalt on the virtual conference room where his meeting a section of Highway 1. Suddenly, his assistant will be held. Upon his entry, the room transforms appears as a hologram on the edge of the site, to look like the inspection site (an overpass they waving him over to confirm the work summary recently completed) using a real-time feed from of the day and to remind him that it’s time a drone onsite. Architectural drawings from to meet with the city inspector for another the State of California Contractor Cloud are project. He walks over to the construction laid over the live footage, and the foreman site’s mobile office, puts on his VR headset, and inspector begin to assess the work. Upon and finds himself in the lobby of the virtual approval by the inspector, he sends his assistant City Planning Department. to submit the applications for the next round of construction permits. Then he pops off his headset, and heads back out to the worksite. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 4

Meet Me in the Metaverse #TechVision Welcome to the “Metaverse Continuum” – Soon, they will be at to the metaverse as well, maintaining their own a spectrum of digitally enhanced worlds, the intersection of many internal virtual environments so employees can realities, and business models poised to new worlds, from building work from anywhere and collaborate in exciting revolutionize life and enterprise in the new ways. With opportunity proliferating across next decade. new physical and virtual all these new worlds, to best serve customers realities to providing and partners alike enterprises will need a This continuum is bringing the next major services in environments strategy to operate across the full spectrum. wave of digital change to enterprises, and leaders need to start making big leaps created by others. This way of life seems futuristic for now, forward in how they think about their business 1 The physical world is coming alive environment but it’s already on its way here. – today. Soon, they will be at the intersection by environment, each with its own capabilities of many new worlds, from building new and rules. Today we already have small-scale Seeing signals of profound change, the physical and virtual realities to providing intelligent physical worlds like smart factories, Accenture Technology Vision found it apt to services in environments created by others. intelligent cruise ships, and automated ports set its sights farther forward than ever before. Like in the scenario above, people will actively – tomorrow we will see these grow into entire The building blocks of the Metaverse Continuum live in and jump between these worlds on smart neighborhoods, cities, and countries, are taking shape today, but will coalesce over a daily basis. Our foreman starts his day where massive digital twins mirror physical the next decade to create an entirely new physically building a road in a digitally and reality. And the digital world is expanding too. enterprise landscape. The 20s will see ambitious robotically enhanced construction site, and Soon, new consumer spaces in the metaverse enterprises bringing shape to these new ends it in an office in the metaverse, a virtual will transport us to almost any type of world we physical and digital realities, as well as worlds environment created by the City Planning can imagine, letting us relax, entertain ourselves, co-populated by people and AI, industries Department, which lets him travel between or socialize over long distance. And major made possible by new computers, and more. geographies in seconds for government companies will shift part of their operations inspections. And this is just the beginning. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 5

Meet Me in the Metaverse #TechVision The building blocks of the Metaverse Continuum are taking shape today, but will coalesce over the next decade to create an entirely new enterprise landscape. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 6

Meet Me in the Metaverse #TechVision Why Metaverse Continuum? You’ve probably heard the word “metaverse” over the last year, evoking a Amazon Sidewalk was activated, instantly science fiction future of a persistent and shared virtual reality space. The truth creating smart neighborhoods, and extending is, right now a lot of early metaverses are being built with many different initial the reach of existing smart devices far beyond 3 focuses and ideas for how to get it right. Some are for enterprises, some for 98% their original range. And Vail Ski Resort in consumers. Each has different platforms, partners, and technologies at its core. Colorado has built a digital twin of its resort, of executives believe an intelligent virtual world mirroring their Eventually this spectrum of ideas will coalesce into a more broadly unified continuous advances in physical mountain, including details like real- experience, but the range of business areas that it will impact will only grow. technology are becoming time snowfall, years of weather data, and critical Just as the internet evolved beyond simple websites to underpin the majority more reliable than economic, mountain infrastructure. They’re also automating of today’s businesses, it would be wrong to think the experience of the political, or social trends in the physical mountain, investing in remote metaverse will be constrained to digital space. informing their organization’s monitoring and automatic snow guns which long-term strategy. can activate based on the weather. With this That is why we’ve introduced the “Metaverse Continuum.” Accenture tech-focused strategy that crosses the digital looks at the metaverse as an evolving and expanding continuum on and physical worlds, Vail is able to increase the multiple dimensions: predictability of ski conditions and expects these efforts to eventually let them extend • Comprises multiple technologies including extended reality, blockchain, their typical season by 25%.4 artificial intelligence, digital twins, and smart objects – including cars and factories, and edge computing. As developments like these challenge our • Encompasses the “virt-real” – the range of experiences, from purely basic assumptions about technology and virtual to a blend of virtual and physical. For some, it’s already starting. A Chinese news business, we are entering a new landscape agency, Xinhua, has unveiled a virtual newsroom where there are not yet rules or expectations – • Describes the spectrum of emerging consumer experiences and with an AI news anchor who can deliver breaking creating a rich opportunity to build and the business applications and models across the enterprise that will 2 shape the worlds of tomorrow. news to audiences 24 hours a day. be reimagined and transformed. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 7

Meet Me in the Metaverse #TechVision Consider this: Enterprises that deploy human-like will that reshape what we look for outside of it? a “Responsible Metaverse,” and the actions and Answering this – and acting on it – won’t be AI aren’t just reaping the benefits of automation, What does the world of work look like when choices they make today will set the standards easy; it’s a journey riddled with uncertainty well they are pioneering new forms of collaboration organizations become more distributed or for all that follow. outside the norms of what most companies are between humans and machines. Smart materials autonomous? How do we manage a supply comfortable with. But the chance to shape the and edge capabilities are transforming what chain that cuts through different physical worlds It leaves companies at a critical moment to next decade of business, to build new worlds, people expect from their physical environments. where some cities are smart and some are not? decide their path forward. These new frontiers and to explore the brand-new markets that Enterprises selling goods in a metaverse In many ways, the new worlds companies are of technology will redefine the entire context of these worlds create doesn’t come often. environment are delivering fundamentally starting to build have no history or legacy – no every business, shaping how they will operate different products, and what’s more, they are right way to do anything. This means immense and create value for decades to come. Those piloting new modes of commerce and creating opportunity, but also that companies pushing who shy away from the uncertainty ahead best practices for the future of the internet. these boundaries will be operating far ahead will soon find themselves operating in worlds Your future is All the companies building – and building of policy and regulation. others have defined – playing by someone else’s in – these new worlds are bringing ideas and rules. But bold companies will embrace the starting today, precedents to them, shaping how people will Enterprises will find themselves on the front uncertainty and wield it as opportunity. soon live, where businesses will find opportunity, lines of establishing trust and safety and defining are you ready and what it will mean to be a responsible the human experience in these new places. The simple truth is, there’s never enough time to business in these environments. Trust will be paramount to adoption of the new think about the future, but that won’t stop it from experiences leaders are beginning to build. happening. As the foundations of the Metaverse for it? For now, it may seem that the future we’re Considerations (and concerns) already held Continuum are constructed, early entrants rocketing toward holds more questions than today around privacy, bias, fairness, and human are staking out key positions and partnerships answers. How will companies conduct business impact are becoming far more acute as the while investing in the technology backbone that and sell products, and how will consumers buy line between people’s physical and digital lives will secure leadership in this new landscape. them in these new worlds? How will human further blurs. Enterprises that wish to lead in Inevitably, every executive will need to ask: interaction unfold in the metaverse, and how this space will shoulder the mantle of building What will my role be in this new continuum? Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 8

Meet Me in the Metaverse #TechVision Architecting Tomorrow’s Continuum, Today In 2021, Gucci created The Gucci Garden Experience to sell virtual products and sold a virtual-only digital twin of a Gucci purse for , a higher price than its real-world counterpart.56 A Travis Scott Fortnite concert had 27.7 million of change and start taking action today. unique attendees – far more than a typical Recall that 20 years ago many enterprises 7 concert venue can accommodate. And in the were wondering if they needed a presence last 12 months Decentraland – a user-owned on the web – a question that seems quaint Ethereum-based virtual world – saw 21,000 now that every public company has augmented real estate transactions worth $110 million.8 its sales, operations, or products with digital technology in some form. With the future on These are early signals of the Metaverse the horizon, we are hearing echoes of that Continuum, and a clear sign that enterprises question again: Is remote work here to stay? need to think about tomorrow’s business Do physical environments really need to be differently; it’s imperative they heed the call smart? Do I need to care about the metaverse? Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 9

Meet Me in the Metaverse #TechVision Is remote work here to stay? Do physical environments really need to be smart? Do I need to care about the metaverse? Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 10

Meet Me in the Metaverse #TechVision 10 The answer to these questions current business is going away – just as an consumption. While the company is one Similar to the beginning of the digital era, the and others is a resounding “yes.” online web presence didn’t remove the need of the largest digital payments solutions on companies that accelerate through the next for physical locations. But like enterprises back the market today, it’s clear they believe the wave of technology disruption will be those then needed to create new revenue streams, future of payments may soon start to change who readily embrace the changes the future Just like in the early years of the web, businesses rethink how they augment their operations, – or at least get bigger. holds. The good news? This time enterprises are racing toward a future utterly different from and contend with a host of new and disruptive have greater warning of what’s to come and the one they were designed for. Over the next competitors, businesses today will also need to Or think about Tesla. First the company there’s still time to get ahead – but they need to decade we will witness a complete transformation reimagine every dimension of their enterprise succeeded in proving the viability of selling start making decisive technology investments of nearly every environment that enterprises from operating models to their core value electric vehicles in today’s automotive market. today. The goal is to ignite the digital foundation currently do business across. The way the proposition. And forward-thinking leaders But now their technology investments and enterprises have been steadily putting in place: internet operates and how we experience the are already getting started. projects are all steps to build pieces of a future finally picking partners to build a digital twin, digital world; the technology that propagates that no one is selling against yet: a world of going beyond data and analytics to use AI in across the physical world and the command it Consider how in late 2021, Square founder smart cities filled with electric and autonomous more visible and collaborative ways, or launching gives us over our environment; how human-like, Jack Dorsey renamed the company to “Block,” vehicles. Their vision of the future drives and the “moonshot” project that increasingly feels collaborative, and productive our interactions with 9 signaling its focus on the future. Shortly informs the machines they build and sell today, mission critical. Only with a mature and well- machines can be; and even the very outer limit of after, the company announced plans to build and the resulting successes in today’s market oiled digital engine will enterprises be prepared computers’ capabilities, are all being upended. an open bitcoin mining system, aiming to are beta tests for their leadership in tomorrow’s to participate in, or even build, the new business make bitcoin mining more distributed and world of autonomous vehicles. environments and worlds everyone will The ground is transforming beneath us and efficient, and to address challenges commonly soon need to be part of. many of the competitive moats and advantages faced by the bitcoin mining community like businesses have worked hard to erect are mining rig availability, high prices, and power beginning to recede. This doesn’t mean your Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 11

Meet Me in the Metaverse #TechVision This past year Honeywell launched the largest Companies today have the chance to become quantum computing company in the world enterprise and technology leaders for decades – a new venture with Cambridge Quantum to come. But like Block, Tesla, and Honeywell, 11 called Quantinuum. This journey started years they will need to shift from augmenting their ago when Honeywell’s leaders looked at the business with technology to being technology- technology and hardware capabilities they had, driven and future-forward by design. What you eyed the far-off field of quantum computing, choose to do next is critical: and had the brazenness to say we can build 12 that world. Now the incubation effort is being spun out into an independent enterprise that Will you set yourself up Honeywell maintains a controlling interest in. The hope is the endeavor will become the as the next Blockbuster launchpad for future generations of industry from financial services to material sciences – or the next Amazon? a new world where intractable problems become solvable through the capabilities 13 of quantum computing. Honeywell still maintains and operates their core business today, but they are also an investor, customer, and supplier of Quantinuum – effectively planting the seeds of their future. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 12

Meet Me in the Metaverse #TechVision Four Building Blocks of the Metaverse Continuum Without realizing it, some businesses have already started adopting future-forward mindsets, and in the process created the building blocks that will become the Metaverse Continuum. A new generation of technology leaders was Far from being slowed down, when faced forged in the COVID-19 crisis. Over the last with new challenges and constraints many 12 months Accenture identified a special class companies had a taste of what it’s like to of companies – called leapfroggers – that began architect new revenue streams and new rapidly implementing digital strategies to navigate ways of working and living – and from their the pandemic. They, along with existing digital efforts, the foundation of tomorrow’s leaders, found that the advantage provided by market is starting to be built. their technology investments led to outperforming 14 competition by 4–5x over the last year. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 13

Meet Me in the Metaverse #TechVision Look at Christie’s Auction House, which was used will be done in purely digital worlds – a future Rather than reverting to pre-pandemic ways to having large in-person art auctions as their they’ve since doubled down on. Just one year as soon as possible, Disney is continuing to primary source of revenue. In the pandemic this after their first auction, Christie’s has now experiment with, and prepare for, worlds 17 became an impossibility. The logical alternative surpassed $100 million in NFT sales. where they will be expected to provide was to host digital-based auctions instead, and omnichannel entertainment options that Christie’s did make this part of their new model, Disney also adapted to the pandemic with span physical theaters, streaming platforms, but they also took a risk on something new: a bold shift to something new. The company or even metaverses and beyond. 15 NFTs. Non-fungible tokens were a burgeoning started releasing highly anticipated films on art form, one atypical for Christie’s as the NFT Disney+ and in theaters at the same time, letting pieces were not physical and existed exclusively subscribers pay a Premier Access fee to stream 18 on blockchains. In 2021, Christie’s hosted its the movie from their homes. Disney’s annual first NFT auction – a piece by the artist Beeple report details that Premier Access content 16 titled Everydays: The First 5000 Days. In that significantly increased revenue from the auction they accomplished two firsts: They sold company’s DTC (direct-to-consumer) division, the most expensive piece of digital art in history and in 2022 the company plans to increase (the work went for $69.3 million) and became spending on produced and licensed content the first auction house to accept cryptocurrency by 32%, largely to support DTC expansion. as payment. By simultaneously validating a new And the company launched the “Mickey and form of art and digital currency to its customers, Friends NFT Collection” in January, allowing 19 it became a leader in shaping how commerce fans a new way to engage with the brand. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 14

Meet Me in the Metaverse #TechVision While What companies are starting to realize is that across humans and machines alike, identifying threaded through our physical environments in in their drive to survive during the pandemic where ambitious enterprises can find rich increasingly sophisticated ways. It projects how they have accelerated the future. The pivots opportunity by uprooting themselves from today the convergence of 5G, ambient computing, and inventions they made are becoming the and planting themselves firmly in the future. augmented reality, smart materials, and more 14% foundations for the new worlds that are starting are paving the way for businesses to reshape to take shape. Though the challenges of the First in WebMe we explore how the internet is how they interact with the physical world. of executives report the pandemic still weigh heavily on businesses being reimagined. The last two years spurred As technology becomes part of the fabric pandemic is continuing to today, we are starting to adapt to our new enterprises to explore new modes of digital of our environment, it allows us to treat our disrupt their organization’s reality, and leaders are taking a more deliberate experience and pushed people to live virtually environment more like technology – unlocking business plans and approach to shaping what comes next. to an extent they never expected. Now the an unprecedented fidelity of control, operations, another metaverse is emerging as a natural evolution that automation, and personalization. These companies and those that join them reconciles how the internet is designed today as leaders will evolve and shape the emerging with what we will demand from it going forward. When it comes to populating new worlds, Metaverse Continuum in ways that, for now, The advent of the metaverse, and underlying humans are the primary residents. But we are we can only speculate about. Each has its own efforts to reimagine how data shapes our also tracking the emergence of The Unreal – 86% idea for what the optimal future looks like, but it digital experiences, will challenge businesses a trend where our environments and businesses would be a mistake to believe these efforts are to rethink their presence online and become a are increasingly filled with machines that are report that their organization mutually exclusive. In some cases, companies’ part of shaping the next platform revolution as passably human. “Unreal” qualities are becoming has adapted to the disruption ambitions will irreconcilably conflict, but in they build new ways to connect to customers, intrinsic to the artificial intelligence, and even of the pandemic and has others they will amplify one another. partners, and their digital workforce. the data, that enterprises aspire to integrate into found a new normal. mission-critical functions. At the same time, In this Vision, we explore how today’s technology But the value of new virtual worlds would be people are coming face-to-face with bad actors innovations are becoming the building blocks of capped if not for parallel changes that anchor using this technology – from deepfakes to bots our collective future. The trends investigate the them in the physical one. The Programmable and more – igniting a growing concern that entire continuum, from the virtual to the physical, World tracks how technology is being may turn into the biggest hurdle for enterprises Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 15

Meet Me in the Metaverse #TechVision looking to grow their use of AI. Like it or not, We stand at a unique precipice in time. enterprises have been thrust into the forefront Not because there are new technologies to of a world questioning what’s real, what isn’t, master, but rather that competing in this next and if the line between those two really matters. decade will require something more than just increasing technology and innovation skills. Finally, we are on the precipice of resetting It will require a truly competitive vision – both the boundaries of traditional industries as we for what these future worlds will look like and begin Computing the Impossible. The outer also what your enterprise will need to become limit of what is computationally possible is to succeed in them. Technology points us in being disrupted as a new class of machines the right direction, but the rest is up to you. emerges. Quantum, biologically-inspired, and high performance computers are each allowing companies to tackle grand challenges Technology points us that once defined and shaped the very core of their industries. As problems once considered in the right direction, impossible become ever more solvable, business leaders will be pushed to reimagine some of the most basic assumptions about their enterprise. but the rest is up to you. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 16

Meet Me in the Metaverse #TechVision Our Four Technology Trends for 2022 WebMe The Unreal Putting the Me Making Synthetic, in Metaverse Programmable Authentic Computing The internet is being reimagined World As AI-generated data and the Impossible as metaverse and Web3 efforts synthetic content convincingly transform the underpinning and Our Planet, Personalized mimic what is “real,” authenticity New Machines, operation of the virtual world. is the new north star. Control, customization, and New Possibilities automation are being enmeshed A new generation of computers into the world around us, making are solving some of the world’s the physical as programmable most intractable problems, leading as the digital. to one of the biggest technological disruptions of our time. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 17

MMeeeet Mt Me ie in tn thhe Me Meettaavveerrssee #TechVision #TechVision Completing 2022 WebMe Programmable The Unreal Computing the Picture Trends World the Impossible Accenture’s Technology Vision report comprises a three-year set of technology trends, currently 2021 Stack Mirrored Anywhere, From Me including trends from 2020 and 2021. Trends Strategically World I, Technologist Everywhere to We It’s important to recognize that each year’s trends are part of a bigger picture. Tracking how they evolve over time offers a glimpse into how they may continue to grow in the future. 2020 The I in AI and Me The Dilemma of Robots in Innovation Trends Experience Smart Things the Wild DNA Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 18

Meet Me in the Metaverse #TechVision 2021 Trends Stack Mirrored I, Technologist Anywhere, From Me Strategically World The Democratization Everywhere to We Architecting a The Power of of Technology Bring Your Own A Multiparty Better Future Massive, Intelligent, Natural language processing, Environment System’s Path Digital Twins low-code platforms, robotic Through Chaos A new era of industry process automation, and It’s time for enterprises competition is dawning – one Growing investments more are democratizing to transform remote work The global disruption of where companies compete in data, AI, and digital twin technology, putting powerful from an accommodation, COVID-19 ignited a scramble on their architecture. technologies are giving rise capabilities into the hands of to an advantage. for enterprises to reimagine to a new generation of people all across the business. their partnerships – and business and intelligence: multiparty systems gained the mirrored world. newfound attention. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 19

Meet Me in the Metaverse #TechVision 2020 Trends The I in AI and Me The Dilemma Robots in Innovation Experience Reimagine the of Smart the Wild DNA Helping people business through Things Growing the Create an engine choose their human and AI Overcome the enterprise’s reach - for continuous own adventure collaboration “beta burden” and responsibility innovation Redesign digital experiences Take a new approach Build new models of Tap into the unprecedented that uses artificial intelligence Address the new reality with new models that amplify of product ownership in interaction and impact scale of disruptive technology personal agency. Turn passive to bring out the full power as robotics move beyond available today. Build the of people. Move beyond the era of “forever beta.” audiences into active Transform pain points the walls of the enterprise. capabilities and ecosystem participants by transforming deploying AI for automation Companies in every industry partnerships necessary to alone and push into the into an opportunity to one-way experiences into create an unprecedented will unlock new opportunities assemble the organization’s true collaborations. new frontier of co-creation by introducing robots to the unique innovation DNA. between people and machines. level of business– customer partnership. next frontier: the open world. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 20

n o si i V y og l hno2 c2 e0 T2 Trend 01 WebMe Putting the Me in Metaverse

Trend 1 Timeline #TechVision WebMe VIDEOPLACE is released 1975 and is considered the first interactive VR experience.20 Neal Stephenson coins Second Life is formed 1992 the metaverse in hit and attracts one million novel Snow Crash.22 23 active users by 2013. 19 2003 Travis Scott hosts European Commission 9 a concert inside classifies new category 0 20Fortnite for 27.7 031of workers who spend U.S. libraries begin 100% of time in 29 NFT by artist Beeple sells million fans. 2021for 69.3 million dollars A major fashion to install public-use 2 metaverse workspace. Ultima VI: The False 30 retailer’s NFT virtual reality devices. Prophet introduces 20 at Christie’s auction. products begin immersive sim gaming to outsell its 2029 (a precursor to the physical goods. metaverse).21 The average adult 2028 2034 spends equal amounts of time 2009 in immersive virtual Bitcoin is released, 2020 24Plans are worlds as the real one. jumping in value from 2017 The average American 0 announced for first less than 1 cent to adult increases their blockchain-based 24 Microsoft acquires $47,000 in 2021. 2 time online 25% to 2 international trade AltspaceVR.27 28 agreement. In China, common items 0 16 hours a day. 2030like deeds, driver’s licenses, 2014 14 To combat rising and birth certificates are Gavin Wood – co founder of 2026 costs and increase certified on a blockchain. 26 Facebook Ethereum – defines Web3. access, a public buys Oculus university system 25 opens VR campus. for $2 billion. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 22

WebMe #TechVision THE BIG PICTURE The internet is being reimagined, and enterprises need to be ready for what comes next. In 2021, we saw Facebook change its name to Meta and shift its focus from social media to the metaverse, which it considers “the successor to the mobile internet.”31 Rather than viewing digital content, people Microsoft metaverse technology stack, are raising new possibilities for what data 32 will live and be present within it. And Meta which will let enterprises build apps on top people possess, how and where it’s stored, isn’t the only company talking about this. of digital twins, bringing the physical and and the ways it gets shared with others. 35 Epic Games, whose CEO has said that digital worlds together. Daily unique active wallets connected people are tired of how today’s internet to decentralized apps (dapps) increased operates, has raised $1 billion to support But when it comes to the future of the sevenfold over the past year, an estimated its own metaverse vision, which would be internet, we’re not just watching metaverses 300 million people own cryptocurrencies, and akin to a massive online playground where start to form. Web3, an encompassing term according to market research firm Blockdata, people can mingle freely with brands and for emerging efforts to build a “distributed” 81 out of the top 100 public companies are 33,34 each other. Microsoft also has skin in the layer to the internet, is ripe with innovation using blockchain, 65 of which are actively game: The company is bringing its suite of and new applications too. Digital wallets developing blockchain solutions.36,37,38 Azure offerings together in what it calls the like MetaMask, Trust Wallet, and Fortmatic Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 23

WebMe #TechVision Defining Metaverse So, what does this all mean for enterprises? In other words, our current For the better part of two decades, businesses systems are designed to and Web3 have been on a journey to build out digital be used in the exact set of capabilities ranging from e-commerce With so much attention being paid to the future of the offerings to analytics platforms, digital constraints that the next internet, it is critical leaders have a firm understanding of the experiences, virtual workforce tools, and so generation of the internet new concepts emerging and their implications. While many much more. The global digital transformation is looking to eliminate. 39 technologies and efforts are encompassed by what Accenture market is set to grow to $1.25 trillion by 2026. defines as the “Metaverse Continuum,” thought leaders in this And the value unlocked by these solutions has Metaverse and Web3 innovations are space often have different definitions (some complementary, become a mainstay of companies’ bottom transforming the fundamental underpinning some contradictory) for the various ideas, and the fuzziness lines and a driver of the global economy. In and operation of the virtual world. Instead of the different terms at play can make discussions tricky. fact, the World Bank estimates that today’s of the internet as a disparate collection of digital economy is now responsible for 15.5% sites and apps, metaverse efforts envision Accenture sees the metaverse as “an evolution of the internet of global GDP, and is growing at a rate 2.5 a persistent 3D environment, imbued with 40 that enables a user to move beyond browsing to inhabiting and/ times faster than global GDP. But all of these a sense of place, where moving from work or participating in a persistent shared experience that spans the solutions were built for, and value is being to a social platform is as simple as walking spectrum of our real world to the fully virtual and in between.” created from, the internet as we know it today: from the office to the movie theater across a digital world where the platforms that drive the street. Web3 further shapes this While Web3 is an evolving term, in this report we use it to refer value are often separate and distinct from one evolution by introducing a data framework to the emerging initiatives that are leveraging technologies like another, where lack of interoperability and that generates veracity, trust, and even blockchain and tokenization to build a more distributed data data portability are often assumed as design scarcity – things we’ve long had conventions layer into the internet. constraints, and people spend more time for in the physical world but have in many “offline” than in the virtual realm. ways evaded us in the virtual ones. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 24

WebMe #TechVision Together they are driving a shift towards a With metaverse and Web3 already weaving But while a critical eye is important, it’s equally more human-centric internet and it is urgent their way into board room conversations around important not to let the debate around hype enterprises prepare for these imminent changes. the globe, it’s necessary for executives to be cycles dominate the bigger picture: the growing able to separate hype from reality. After all, certainty that our digital world is in the early the term metaverse was coined by the author stages of significant change, and that in the Neal Stephenson back in 1992, and today’s coming years these technologies will become emergence into everything from commercials critical components of how enterprises 71% to earnings calls seems sudden given the orchestrate their digital strategies. progress we’ve made and how much more still of global executives state needs to be done. As for Web3, in the last year that the metaverse will have alone major volatility around cryptocurrencies a positive impact on their and the multi-million-dollar sales of NFTs (non- organizations, with fungible tokens) simultaneously demonstrated the disruptive potential of emerging online marketplaces and new modes of commerce – while also raising serious questions around the 42% value and stability of these digital products. believing it will be breakthrough or transformational. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 25

WebMe #TechVision Either metaverse or Web3 alone would be enough to draw hype and attention – but the fact that they are unfurling simultaneously is what demands enterprise Q leaders take notice. Early efforts present a new vision of the future of the internet, with the creation of immersive digital-only worlds as well as a deeper blurring between What level of positive impact do you believe the the boundaries of the digital and physical. They are subverting many assumptions we take for granted about metaverse will have on your organization in the future? the function of digital offerings, and the form they take, by demonstrating exciting new ways to experience, communicate in, and transact across virtual environments. 13% Transformational impact (redefine your industry) 28% Breakthrough impact (enable new business processes, reach new customers) 30% Incremental impact (optimize processes) 28% No or minimal impact Source: Technology Vision 2022 Global Business and IT Executive Survey. N=4,650. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 26

WebMe #TechVision Consider Nike, which launched a virtual world Though today’s solutions may sometimes 41 called NIKELAND on Roblox in late 2021. seem too futuristic, niche, or disjointed, they NIKELAND has buildings and fields inspired by are broader signals indicating the next digital the company’s real-world headquarters, arenas revolution is beginning to appear on the horizon. where visitors can play games, and a digital Eventually, the entire online footprint that showroom where they can outfit their avatars companies have been endeavoring to build with Nike products. And the full experience over the last decade will need to be reimagined crosses into the physical world too – by using to be compatible with this new evolution: the accelerometers on their phones, visitors can from what services are sold and what data is translate activity in the physical world into longer accessible to how advertising is conducted, jumps or faster running speeds in NIKELAND and content is generated. games. As another example, Bayer’s Crop Science group partnered with BlockApps to build TraceHarvest, an agricultural blockchain platform used to track produce from the moment it is planted as a seed, all the way 42 through the value chain. And many retailers have announced plans to seamlessly accept Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies – which may not be the most convenient payment methods in the physical world today, but will be valuable experiments should these companies begin transacting in the metaverse. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 27

WebMe #TechVision Now is the time for companies to decide nearly synonymous with the internet itself. the role that they will play – if they want The chance to be a driving force behind to be part of the wave, or merely watch the reimagination of our digital experience, how it plays out. It’s not a simple decision. to be a leader in redefining how data shapes There’s no clearly defined end-state to this the lives of people and enterprises alike, transformation. It will evolve continuously or to play a part in merging those two and iteratively through the visions of those visions together is the opportunity in front leading the charge. There is tremendous of business leaders today. The table is set work to be done building the new platforms, for the next dominant players of every products and services, partnerships, industry to emerge. Will it be you? and technology needed to manifest this change, as well as identifying the use cases and business models that will define how we generate value from it. But behind the uncertainty, there is tremendous Behind the opportunity up for grabs. The last time the internet went through a shift of this uncertainty there magnitude, companies like Amazon, Netflix, and Google went from being e-bookstores is tremendous and renting DVDs by mail to becoming value up for grabs. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 28

WebMe #TechVision THE ANALYSIS Converging on our Digital Future It’s useful to think about these evolutions as taking place on two fronts: the metaverse as a re-platforming of digital experiences and Web3 as reinventing how data moves through that system. For executives hoping to join the ranks of those The environment is used for wide-ranging that shape the next internet revolution, it starts functions including training robots to navigate with taking steps to understand these evolutions the factory, bringing together designers from to the form and function of the web, why the across the globe to experiment with new line world is so ready for these shifts, and importantly layouts, training simulations for individual tasks, – how to apply them starting today. and doing ergonomic improvements. But it’s not just a place for experimenting. Employees can Starting with metaverse, look at how BMW is use the environment to push software updates, taking early steps by using NVIDIA’s Omniverse monitor individual cells for disruptions, assign platform to build digital twins of 31 different new “missions” to the robots on the floor, and 43 factories. The models use real-time data to even take over and teleoperate the machines recreate a photo-realistic 3D environment that is for individual tasks. a living mirror for everything from the machines on the floor, the people populating stations, 44 and even individual work-order instructions. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible

WebMe #TechVision BMW demonstrates the promise of what From the consumer perspective, platforms the next generation of the internet may hold. determine digital experiences – but the friction It’s a single point of technology convergence of navigating between different platforms, and that seamlessly moves from the digital to the the subsequent fragmentation of data across 95% physical, from simulation to real time, across the platforms, prevents us from having a truly broadest macro-view of the factory down to the seamless digital experience. Consider that, of global executives micro-level of individual tasks being performed. depending on where someone is located in believe that future digital It has already reduced production planning time the world, the average number of social media platforms need to offer by 30% and promises to unlock even more value accounts internet users have ranges from 3.8 unified experiences, enabling 45 through predictive maintenance, collaboration, (Japan) to 11.5 (India). So if you’ve ever had the interoperability of customers’ training, and custom manufacturing. experience of chatting with the same friend data across different or coworker in multiple apps at the same time, platforms and spaces. BMW’s solution also demonstrates why a new you’re not alone. People who subscribe to evolution of the internet should be a welcome streaming services are also more likely to pay one. While many companies might have some, for two or three services rather than picking 46 even all, of the discrete capabilities exhibited just one. And it’s a trend that follows us to our by BMW’s virtual factories today, they likely work lives as well: One study showed that 43% of exist across a dozen different systems and workers feel they spend too much time switching platforms, many of which are siloed or between digital tools, yet an analysis by Gartner incapable of operating in concert with one predicts that “by 2024, in-person meetings will another. And it’s a problem that persists outside drop from 60% of enterprise meetings to 25%” of enterprise technology stacks as well. – necessitating the use of even more digital collaboration tools.47,48 Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 30

WebMe #TechVision Digital platforms have Inrupt released an enterprise version of Solid, become a wellspring of value a technology built on existing web standards, which lets users control their data and store it in but the well runs dry once the 49,50 Personal Online Data Stores, or Pods. Now, data or experience hits the large organizations and governments can build proverbial garden wall. websites or applications that interact with the Pods and with people’s permission access the Realizing this dichotomy is what makes the data they need for certain tasks. complements of Web3 and metaverse so enticing. While metaverse solutions like those Inrupt exhibits just one of the many different from Meta, Epic, or NVIDIA, try to tackle technical approaches of Web3, but throughout creating a more unified experience, Web3 all of them, the desired outcome remains changes the way we treat data – creating consistent: to create a layer of transaction and an undercurrent of provenance, veracity, trust across the web by making different parties and value, that brings gravity to boundlessly the arbiters of their own data. The underlying creative spaces like the metaverse. data framework is what supports a range of capabilities from “owning” a pair of digital shoes Founded by World Wide Web inventor Tim to authenticating identity and more, while still Berners-Lee, Inrupt is one of many companies remaining secure. In other words, activities working towards Web3. By associating data with that occur in metaverses may – and often will – the individual rather than the platform, it seeks be enabled by Web3. As such, Web3 is a critical, to let people consistently carry their information and necessary, complement that will bind our with them around the digital world. In late 2020, next internet together. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 31

WebMe #TechVision 53 Importantly, Web3 also fundamentally changes conferencing, letting users beam in live feeds and activities. Notably, almost everything in the relationship between people and platforms, of their computer screens and use hand tracking Decentraland is an NFT, from virtual real estate to as well as how businesses engage with their and front-facing cameras to type on virtual art to avatar skins, meaning that there’s a secure 51 users and business partners across digital keyboards. The National Basketball Association way to track ownership of these digital assets spaces. For instance, while large platforms could spent the last year building out a platform that and that players can move them throughout still provide demographic data and channels converted video highlights from real-world Decentraland, even across areas developed by 54 of access to customers, businesses would also games into NFTs that fans could collect and different companies. Since the start of 2021, have a brand-new avenue to directly engage trade – the effort generated $600 million in Decentraland’s average number of daily users individual users. Companies could incentivize sales by October 2021 and provided a window has grown tenfold to 18,000, and at the end of more personal access to create better-tailored into one possible future of sports content 2021, Samsung launched their first metaverse experiences, and customers would have the and memorabilia.52 store on Decentraland.55,56,57 comfort of knowing they were the ones in control of the information shared in that relationship. Ultimately though, it seems the maximal value The maximal value of both Similarly, businesses looking to share access of both metaverse and Web3 will depend on between systems, or transact between different the ways in which the two converge with one metaverse and Web3 will metaverses, will need a trusted layer to navigate another. Efforts to reimagine the way data depend on the ways in across those ecosystems. moves through the internet will need a simple which the two converge and intuitive experience to gain widespread For the time being, many of the efforts to adoption, and efforts to make the web with one another. build the new metaverse and Web3 layers to experience more “real” will need an underlying the web are playing out separately, with many data foundation that guarantees trust, safety, novel approaches towards the future. Meta’s and optionality for all involved. The two are ideal metaverse plans are wide and ambitious, and complements, and early examples to unify the one of their early efforts – Horizon Workrooms two are already underway. Decentraland is a – provides the full office experience with user-owned Ethereum-based virtual world where immersive VR environments for workplace users can play, explore, and interact with games Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 32

WebMe #TechVision THINGS TO LOOK OUT FOR We’re Finding a New Way Forward, and Not Turning Back While much of this technology is still in the early adopter phase, there are signals that the world is steadily progressing towards this future. Shifts in the digital world over the past are too. A study in late 2020 found that daily 18 months have made it clear that a “wait and time spent consuming digital content in Europe see” approach will before long become “look, and the U.S. had doubled since the start of the 60 it already happened.” pandemic. And in the third quarter of 2021, NFT sales surged to $10.7 billion, over eight 61 It took just 15 years to go from the launch times higher than the previous quarter. The, at of the first iPhone to a world with 6.6 billion times astronomical, value of individual NFT sales 58 smartphones. Compare this to a shift we’re is likely tied to hype, but the growth in attention starting to see today. In December 2021, the is creating a community of web users who are Oculus app rose to the top of mobile app store comfortable spending on purely digital assets charts – becoming the top app in the U.S. and with no real-world manifestation, and perhaps 59 a top five app in 14 countries. And not only is more importantly – learning to think about the technology that people and enterprises have data in a new way. access to beginning to change – their habits Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 33

WebMe #TechVision Equally significant, enterprises are starting to It’s easy to look at some examples of what’s However, a word of warning is necessary. Just as think about the digital world differently and are happening today and say they were born from early innovation in this space can carry outsized already capturing the new value that’s there. necessity or from companies trying to hop value, it can carry outsized risk as well. Leaders When concerts couldn’t take place in person, onboard a hot trend. But even when these are not just pioneering a new digital future, but a an alternative was invented. A Travis Scott constraints are gone and the novelty wears off new future for human and enterprise interaction, Fortnite concert in April 2020, for instance, had – can we really expect event promoters to stop and many of the rules remain undefined. It is 27.7 million unique attendees – far more than selling tickets when they reach the capacity of critical enterprises take steps to proactively a typical concert venue can accommodate – their in-person venues, when they can be selling shape the “Responsible Metaverse.” and was viewed 45.8 million times, meaning tickets for a virtual experience too? Do we really millions of players logged on to attend multiple think the innovations that have made people’s 62 times over its five-day run. After two years of virtual lives more immersive and real will go not having work meetings happen live, virtual away? The conditions of today’s evolutions are events platform Touchcast launched MCity, an certainly far from what we consider “normal life” enterprise metaverse platform where companies – but people and enterprises won’t unhear can register for a “.metaverse” domain name and the bell of the future. construct a virtual hub where employees can 63 have meetings and collaborate. When people couldn’t socialize face-to-face, the “realness” of their virtual lives and experiences started to matter more. Gucci created The Gucci Garden Experience to sell virtual products, and sold a virtual-only digital twin of a Gucci purse for a 64,65 higher price than its real-world counterpart. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 34

WebMe #TechVision How does content or interaction moderation employees do work, and everything in between. happen in the metaverse, when people now For better or worse, the actions taken today will have bodies and voices not just usernames and define the business’s trajectory for a decade or text? How do we blend the virtual and physical more. Those who succeed will become the next in a way that ensures a metaverse-driven digital natives, with all the advantages that come workplace doesn’t leave employees isolated and with it, and there are no guarantees that the prior without critical real-world human interaction? successes of today’s digital leaders will carry Or safely onboard people into the world of over to tomorrow. Web3, where password-recovery is a non-option for current platforms and where losing access to digital assets often means access is lost forever. People and These are just a few of the questions enterprises will face, and they need to be prepared to enterprises won’t answer or take action on them. Enthusiasm for the potential on the horizon should not come unhear the bell at the expense of caution and care for the human at the center of the experience. This is a of the future. once-in-a-generation chance to rethink how you do business in a new medium: what you sell, how you engage with customers or clients, how your Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 35

WebMe ACTIONS TO TAKE Leading Tomorrow’s Internet It’s one thing to understand the urgency and opportunity of this moment, and quite another thing to be prepared to act on it. Think back to everything it took for legacy that are prepared and willing to be the first to businesses to catch up to digital natives. They had experiment with these new platforms and data to hire new software developers, designers, and structures will be the ones who define what the UX testers, explore cloud investments, and form next generation of digital business looks like. new partnerships, and even then, they were only playing catch-up. For this next generation of the But success here isn’t purely strategic – it also digital world, that isn’t yet the case. Enterprises hinges on putting your technical foundation into still have a chance to get ahead of the market place. At a minimum, cloud will be essential, as and be part of its creation. will rebuilding your applications with microservices architectures and APIs to be easily usable by Business leaders should start building new and shareable with others. The metaverses that strategies today, exploring the potential of new emerge (whether enterprise or consumer-driven) products and services and training their executives will be defined by the services and platforms on the technologies that will soon be foundational they encompass. to their business. As metaverse and Web3 technologies continue to mature, the companies Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 36

WebMe #TechVision This means to even have a presence enterprise This might sound like a lot of And for many of these technologies, the best The importance of consortiums and industry must have the infrastructure to share applications new skills to develop in a short way to be an early innovator is by deploying standards like these is twofold. They enable widely and securely. These steps can, and should, amount of time, but in many them internally. This is what Accenture did greater interoperability between companies, be taken today – even if the end state of the by creating its own enterprise metaverse, the making it easier to deliver cross-platform metaverse remains uncertain. cases, you don’t have to start “Nth floor.” Accenture is deploying 60,000 VR experiences or to jointly collaborate on an entirely from scratch. headsets to employees around the world and experience, and they often make it possible Next, businesses can start identifying – and is providing immersive VR environments for to do so securely and without jeopardizing working toward – the Web3 and metaverse The increasing sophistication and onboarding, learning, and collaboration within a company’s privacy. And, by agreeing to a skills and capabilities they will need. Enterprises democratization of immersive design tools, the company – all while demonstrating best common framework when a technology is looking to create metaverse experiences will for instance, is making it easier than ever to start practices for VR rollouts and projects to clients. in its infancy, businesses can set themselves require 3D artists, game designers, and experts experimenting with these technologies. Look at up to provide more compatible services to on the platforms on which they plan to build. all the tools emerging to help people create 3D Aside from gaining the necessary in-house future shared consumers, which will help And companies chasing the opportunities environments and experiences. Epic Games’ skills and expertise, forming new partnerships them stand the test of time as the internet of Web3 will need experience with multiple Unreal Engine, which is a real-time 3D creation and ensuring you can participate in future continues to evolve. blockchains, to build relationships with tool for photoreal immersive experiences, partnerships and collaborations is also a critical different consortiums, and because of its was updated in August 2021 to emphasize aspect of building your technical foundation. distributed nature, to find partners to go to interoperability and cloud support, meaning Companies can join consortiums like the market with, as well as build new business that users can now access Unreal Engine from Khronos Group, which comprises more than and operating models. 66,67 150 organizations including Apple, Google, any normal web browser. And NVIDIA’s Omniverse, the same one used by BMW, and Amazon and is working to set open industry connects existing 3D software tools – which standards for extended reality, 3D graphics, 69 typically haven’t worked well together – making and more. Or for organizations building Web3 it easier for people to collaborate on 3D applications, there’s the InterWork Alliance environments in real time and across which has created the Token Taxonomy 68 Framework so that multiple parties can work software applications. together to define a “common language, 70 behaviors, and properties” for digital tokens. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 37

WebMe #TechVision Conclusion Decision Points: Today’s efforts around metaverse and Web3 Is your company ready for the next How are you developing the skills are creating the next version of the internet. generation of the internet? needed for the next digital world? They are two momentous technology shifts, simultaneously working to eliminate the • A significant transformation is coming to our digital world, • Just as enterprises needed to hire interaction designers, and even if the end state is not yet fully formed, many software engineers, and more to execute their digital friction that exists between today’s many digital changes are already underway. Leaders should kick off transformations, a new set of skills will be required for a future a market and technology scan to understand what is evolving driven by metaverses and Web3. Start by identifying where platforms and to reinvent how data moves and today and how it may impact or disrupt current digital efforts, you expect to compete as an enterprise, and what skills is used across digital experiences. And in the then prioritize the opportunities and partners available. gaps will prevent successfully executing those strategies. • Use case development will be key as enterprises track • Developing the pipeline for new talent will be a longer- process, they are driving new lines of business, the maturity of the underlying metaverse and Web3 term effort that should nevertheless begin today. In the new ways of working, and new means of technologies. Every company will be impacted differently, interim, companies should explore upskilling existing with no clear best practices. Maintaining focus on desired employees through vendor-based training and building interaction between businesses and people. outcomes will mean developing a concise set of use familiarity and skills with the metaverse and Web3 cases for how enterprises intend to drive value from platforms they intend to use. For most, this is the first and best chance these emerging worlds. • Low-code and no-code platforms are another avenue they have ever had to architect a new kind • There are technology investments you can already make that may jumpstart an enterprise’s ability to pursue today to improve your short-term and long-term ability to metaverse and Web3 initiatives. of digital world – and the race to define, adapt to the impending changes. Cloud is a must for every build, and populate it is on. company. More discrete industry impacts are happening across spaces like VR, AR, digital twins, distributed ledgers, and virtual marketplaces. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 38

WebMe #TechVision How are you going to start? What security (and safety) will your company need to operate and fully engage with businesses and customers in the metaverse? • Already, there are some standard metaverse use cases that • Begin planning for the metaverse architecture with new identity companies can leverage without high levels of risk. For instance, and data governance and frameworks and Web3. As cryptocurrency immersive technologies for training or productivity have been services may form the building blocks for user identity and tested and experimented with for years. transparent transactions, evaluate how practiced your company • To guide their pilots, businesses should investigate the ways is in these technologies. their enterprise platforms may be holding them, their stakeholders, • Strategize on what your company wants to become in the metaverse. or their users back. They should empower development teams What is your role in creating a secure and trusted metaverse, and to design and test new kinds of experiences that eliminate shaping the future of human and enterprise interaction? Could you or circumvent these pain points. become a leader in bringing your corporate values of trust, security, • To keep up with – and influence – the development of metaverse privacy and safety to the metaverse? and Web3 technologies, fast track participation in consortiums. • Have product and services teams begin planning for the compound risk of new services and integrated experiences in a shared marketplace. Assess how this changes the risk exposure of those initiatives. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 39

n io s i V y og l hno2 c2 e0 T2 Trend 02 Programmable World Our Planet, Personalized

Trend 2 Timeline #TechVision Programmable World Most schools provide students with AR glasses to improve Major supermarket chain learning outcomes. NASA uses an early iteration 2020 launches AR app allowing 1982 of digital twins to simulate customers to overlay products 2031 rescue scenarios for UC Davis neurosurgeons with filters of customized 71 use mixed reality headsets information such as allergens stranded Apollo 13 mission. to prepare for surgery on or sustainability ratings. MINI produces the first 79 conjoined twins. Flagship smartphones 2008augmented reality SNAP releases start shipping with advertisement, which 19Landmarkers, lenses 24 embedded holographic appears in three German that let users augment 032projectors. automotive magazines.73 0 0 78 2 famous landmarks. 2 2 2 8 2013 19 MIT researchers develop the first iteration of M-Blocks, Researchers at self-assembling robots.74 2037 CMU connect the 2019 Paris Fashion Week very first IoT MIT researchers use 2025 29features a color- Buildings over 30 stories device: a Coca-Cola Manufacturer changing clothing are required to use 72 CRISPR to create programmable steel which vending machine. 2016 021 announces new 77 line made from Microsoft releases HoloLens, shapeshifting hydrogels. 2 automotive assembly absorbs impact, self-heals 20smart materials. and can be reprogrammed 75 line controlled and its augmented reality headset. Habitat for for remodeling. Humanity builds reconfigurable through AR game Pokémon GO first 3D printed digital twin platform. reaches 500 million 80 16 livable home. downloads within 12 20 months of release.76 Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 41

Programmable World #TechVision THE BIG PICTURE We’re building the next version of the physical world. Twelve thousand years ago, new farming techniques and technologies started the Agricultural Revolution. People left hunter-gatherer societies to maintain crops and raise livestock on farms, and they began to command their physical environments to a degree that had never been done before. Deforestation, permanent settlements, This pattern has happened time and again In this world control, customization, and and eventually systems for irrigation all across human history. Major revolutions automation – things taken for granted started to change the face of the world. occur when technology fills the world and in software – will be enmeshed into the transforms our relationship with it, giving environment around us. People will have Millennia later in the 1700s, mass-production us more command and control over our unprecedented ability to command the world machinery, the construction of factories, environment. And just as our physical to meet their own individual needs, deciding and inventions like the steam engine sparked world changes, so does what we do in it. what they see, interact with, and experience the first Industrial Revolution. These new We go from gatherers to farmers; from with greater ease and fidelity than ever before. technologies further transformed our stable hands to machinists; from country- And enterprises will build and deliver these relationship to the physical world. They led dwellers to urbanites. experiences, as well as reinvent their own to the buildup of cities, long-distance operations for a new kind of world. Simply transportation networks, and tunnels and Now, as the real-world impact of the current put, the world is becoming a place that can bridges, turning impassable geological digital revolution begins to hit critical mass, be shaped as broadly, as personally, and as features into main thoroughfares. we are embarking on the next major often as our experiences on the internet – transformation: the programmable world. fundamentally changing the way we live. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 42

Programmable World #TechVision Imagine, for instance, that someone on vacation In these scenarios, digital capabilities are wants to go to a restaurant for dinner. Instead of woven into the very fabric of the world, making looking at his phone for restaurants nearby, he the physical world as smart, customizable, and simply asks his AI assistant what his options are, 92% programmable as we expect the digital one to be. and through an earpiece, it points him to several People have more information about their real- nearby restaurants, highlighting their cuisine and of global executives agree world surroundings, along with greater context, reviews based on his past preferences. Upon that leading organizations and they can frictionlessly interact with their confirming his reservation, his augmented reality will push the boundaries of environment in novel and more efficient ways. (AR) glasses render a highlighted route on the the virtual world to make it sidewalk to direct him toward his destination. more real, increasing the need We’ve been building toward the programmable As he steers his wheelchair to the entrance, the for persistence and seamless world for years: Digital technologies have small staircase to the door autonomously flattens navigation between the digital proliferated across the physical world for over a into a ramp, and the restaurant receives his Yelp and physical worlds. decade. We’ve put cameras everywhere and filled profile so the server knows just what to highlight our homes with smart devices and microphones. on the menu, translated into his native language. Now, advances in natural language processing, computer vision, and edge computing are Or imagine that a worker is entering her amplifying the capabilities of those devices, company’s manufacturing plant. She puts on freeing digital interactions from being trapped and her smart jumpsuit and AR glasses and quickly turning them into an ambient and persistent layer monitors the site. A blinking notification over one reactivating machinery in accordance with safe across our environment. The global 5G rollout machine alerts her that it’s due for maintenance operating procedures. The parts arrive, and as adds more fuel to the fire, setting the stage for and the OEM has already been contacted; she removes them from the box, the packaging the further proliferation of low-power, low-latency a drone is scheduled to arrive with the necessary neatly disassembles for return to the shipping connected devices. And researchers across parts in eight minutes, but she will need to company. Her glasses have highlighted the enterprise and academia alike are working on even help install them. As she makes her way to the specific machine panel the parts are intended more transformative technologies, like AR glasses, machine, ambient cameras in the room track her for, but she verbally dismisses the training new methods of manufacturing, new kinds of movement, autonomously shutting down and tutorial being offered and gets to work. smart materials, and programmable matter. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 43

Programmable World #TechVision Though many enterprises still view these An early signal of what’s to come happened Enterprises can be at the forefront of bringing When we have technology elements as distinct and separate in June 2021, when Amazon activated Sidewalk. the programmable world to life, from launching – as new ways to connect to a customer, create Amazon had been deploying hundreds of millions the next generation of customizable products this level of control, efficiencies in a warehouse, or deliver faster of Echo, Ring, and Tile products into the world for and services to architecting the hyper- what will we be network connectivity – they are part of a much years, and Sidewalk became the mesh network personalized and hyper-automated experiences 81 broader mosaic, a confluence of technologies connecting them together. It uses low-power that will let us shape and control our world able to create? that is pushing the full force of the digital Bluetooth and 900MHz radio signals to share down to the individual level. Those who ignore revolution into our physical reality. data between devices and across greater this trend, fatigued from the promise of IoT, distances than before, creating bridges that can will overlook the signals as the world automates extend connectivity up to half a mile beyond around them. They will delay building the Wi-Fi range and let anyone with compatible infrastructure and technology necessary to devices connect. Now, if your dog escapes tap into this rich opportunity, and they will find and gets lost, a Tile tracker on his collar could themselves playing catch-up in a world that 74% stay connected thanks to Sidewalk bridges has already taken the next step. from your neighbors’ homes. And though of global executives report Sidewalk is limited to Amazon devices and The physical world is the last, and perhaps greatest, the number of IoT/edge devices largely centered around increasing connectivity frontier for the digital revolution. The world we deployed in their organizations range for now, the way that it came together, once thought of as static is becoming infinitely significantly or exponentially connecting existing IoT devices to create instant programmable. From augmented reality to increased over the past smart neighborhoods, hints at the power that robotics, ambient computing, or programmable three years. connecting other, even more sophisticated matter, the options to shape our world are vast – technologies will soon unleash. leaving enterprise leaders to ask one question: Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 44

Programmable World #TechVision THE ANALYSIS The Three Layers of the Programmable World Innovation in the physical world should be high on enterprises’ agendas. Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, possible, the advancement of real-world tech we’ve witnessed a surge of new inventions to hasn’t slowed down. In fact, we’re already starting help people live more fully and easily in the virtual to see aspects of the programmable world world, and many have gotten used to a virtual emerge: Digital experiences and capabilities are lifestyle. They like the ease and personalization of coming out of screens and into the world itself; online shopping, virtual interactive learning at their ambient computing is turning our homes into own pace, and always seeing (so never forgetting) digital interfaces; and early AR glasses are letting their colleagues’ names during a Zoom meeting. people make the world their personal digital Now that the world is reopening, many people are environment. We’re starting to shift from bringing eager to return to in-person activities and many digital experiences into the physical world to businesses are eager to reopen offices and return creating physical environments and experiences to full physical world operations – but they don’t that innately are digital – that can be customized, want to leave these digital boons behind. controlled, and programmed much like the purely virtual experiences we’re so used to. And with our Though our attention for the past years has been return to the world after leading virtual-first lives for fixed on companies making digital work and life so long, the appetite for this has never been higher. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible

Programmable World #TechVision Consumers globally are Many are already investing in and deploying the environments and turn the world into a seamless The next layer of the programmable world crossing a tipping point in first layer of programmable world technology, interaction layer. Instead of requiring a device, is experiential. Building on data collected by AR technology – creating a connected foundation. According to people’s interactions with their surroundings IoT and edge devices and processed at 5G Omdia’s 2021 global IoT Enterprise Survey, 90% – captured by computer vision, speech speeds, digital twins are a core constituent of of respondents said IoT was core to their digital recognition, wearables, or other means – could this layer. These digital models of the physical transformation strategies or already deployed automatically trigger a response. And the high world give businesses real-time insight into 82 across multiple parts of the business. And speed and low latency of 5G will enable new their environments and operations, and can 56% IoT devices are widespread among consumers connected device use cases that rely on ultra- transform people’s experiences in them. too. Many smart thermostats, for instance, fast connectivity, like connected cars, remotely would find personal value in use algorithms to learn people’s temperature operated machinery, and other real-world In industrial settings, for instance, workers using AR today or in the future. preferences and daily routines so they can deployments, extending the reach of technology- will be able to easily access relevant data adjust automatically and avoid heating empty driven interactions to more environments. Both and context from twins of their environments, 83,84 homes. Nest Doorbells let customers set of these technologies are rapidly growing. streamlining their work and letting them make activity zones and smart alerts for a mix of The context-aware computing market, valued more informed decisions in real time. And in people, vehicles, packages, or animals that come at $42.21 billion in 2019, is expected to reach customer-focused environments like a grocery into view, and with Nest Aware, can even use $200.04 billion by 2025 at a 29.9% CAGR over store, a combination of product data from the 86 facial recognition to alert people when familiar five years. And 5G networks are expected to store’s digital twin and personal data from a 85 87 faces are at the door. cover a third of the world’s population by 2025. customer’s digital profile could be used to show As they continue to mature, they will bring the them curated details about the items they’re To begin building a new generation of products, And where these devices in the past have been world online in a way that hasn’t been possible looking at or to make recommendations. Already, services, and experiences in the physical world limited in compute power and largely kept before – enabling the creation of connected many enterprises are starting to realize the value – that meet our new expectations for digital separate, being operated through discrete apps, environments that react to us and our needs of these twins, building them for everything conveniences – enterprises will need a deep emerging technologies are starting to bring in a seamless, screenless way. from factory machines, to whole environments, understanding of three layers that comprise their true promise to life. Ambient computing, to entire supply chains, and the global digital the programmable world: the Connected, the for instance, uses interconnected IoT devices twin market, valued at $3.21 billion in 2020, Experiential, and the Material. to integrate computing into people’s lived is expected to reach $184.5 billion by 2030.88 Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 46

Programmable World #TechVision Another noteworthy component of the The final layer of the programmable world is fabricated with their intended manufacturing experiential layer is AR. While AR glasses still material and constitutes how things are made. method. Furniture company Roche Bobois, for face challenges with battery life, image quality, It includes a new generation of manufacturing and instance, is letting customers use a software tool design, and more, some early products are materials, which will bring programmability into at home or in-store to create their own furniture already here. INMO, a Chinese AR developer, the truly physical aspects of our environments. designs, which are then fed to a giant 3D printer has created a pair of AR glasses equipped with Advances in digital manufacturing techniques for production.94 wireless connectivity and an AI recognition are changing how and where physical goods 89 system. The glasses superimpose information can be made, making on-demand and hyper- But being able to produce custom products on like directions or product details over the customized products a reality. For instance, 3D demand is only half of this material layer. New user’s vision and use gesture control for printers can now print a much wider variety kinds of smart materials and programmable communication and information sharing. Nreal, of objects, and the number of viable filament matter will soon make it possible to customize 92 another Chinese company, has released AR materials is growing too. This makes 3D printing or enable custom experiences with physical glasses in several markets, including South – which by nature is better suited for highly products after production as well. Programmable 90 Korea, Japan, and the U.S. These glasses customized and local production – increasingly matter is material that is “programmed” to connect to people’s phones and similarly attractive for more industries. Similarly, advances change its physical properties upon direct augment the physical world with superimposed in digital textiles production are making textile command or sensing a predetermined trigger. 91 digital content. Even in this early phase, the customization easier and on-demand production For example, MIT researchers developed value of combining AR glasses and digital increasingly possible. Knitting solutions provider a programmable matter system, called twins is clear: With them, any environment Shima Seiki’s WHOLEGARMENT technology ChromoUpdate, that can change the color of an 95 can be made digital and overlaid with a digital lets manufacturers program machines to knit item with a zap of light. The items are coated experience. A new dimension of information entire garments without needing to cut and in a light-activated dye, and an ultraviolet light 93 will be seamlessly embedded into people’s sew separate parts together. And in addition projector can alter the reflective properties in experiences as they move around physical to these manufacturing machine advances, the dye to change the color of the item. And a environments, and will give them unprecedented digital design tools are democratizing product team at Rice University has developed a smart insight into the world and the novel ability to customization, letting designers – or even material that’s strong, soft, and as conductive 96 control how they perceive it. customers – easily make changes to their as many metals. It contains carbon nanotube products while ensuring they can still be threads which can be sewn into clothing Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 47

Programmable World #TechVision without concern about damage from washing, stretching, or sweat, and the researchers see potential for wearable technology made with this fabric. In time, projects like these will elevate the programmable world, driving a new generation of smart things with new capabilities, properties, and form factors, embedding the individual control and customizability of the programmable world into the material building blocks of physical reality. The Connected, Experiential, and Material layers of the programmable world will enable new ways to augment, customize, automate, alter, and otherwise “program” our physical environments – and they will introduce an entirely new competitive landscape. Digital technology is about to make its mark on the physical world, changing what we can do and how we live within it, and the companies that bring this technology to their employees’ and customers’ environments will quite literally be the ones to shape the next generation of life in this world. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 48

Programmable World #TechVision THINGS TO LOOK OUT FOR Challenges Connecting the Programmable World Bringing programmability to your business and customers’ lives starts with enabling the confluence of these technologies and technology layers. The seamless combination of different capabilities is First and foremost, most businesses aren’t going to what will bring customization, automation, and more develop all of these real-world technologies in-house, out of screens and into our world – for instance, AR so interoperability between different companies’ gives us new ways to interact with information, which products will be key. Unfortunately, this is turning out is often supplied by IoT devices and digital twins, and to be a challenge – even in ways that are not entirely networks of various connected devices can share technical. Consider the findings of a 2021 J.D. Power information to autonomously trigger changes in survey: Smartphone connectivity in cars has actually people’s environments, with some observing people’s worsened in the past year, especially when connecting real-time needs and some reacting to them. But wirelessly, and it’s due to software coordination issues there are significant challenges to connecting these between automakers and tech companies.97,98 And as technologies safely and at scale. those with smart homes might know, it can be difficult to connect smart home ecosystems using technology from different companies, like trying to control smart home devices from one company with a smart assistant from another.99 Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 49

Programmable World #TechVision Though some businesses today might prefer Significantly, risks to security and data privacy 125%, and there were 1.5 billion attacks just on Tackling these challenges head on is the key to keep their programmable world technologies will not be relegated to the digital world but smart devices – more than double the number to moving fast in the programmable world. It within a closed ecosystem, there are growing will have serious consequences in the physical of attacks over the same period the year takes time to deploy real-world technologies – 100,101 reasons to move away from these kinds of walled world too. The size and scale of the exposure, before. These attackers can steal personal especially consumer-facing ones – so getting it gardens. Customers are already wary of giving direct impacts, and secondary impacts have or corporate data, mine cryptocurrency, or right from the beginning is critical. The choices companies too much control over their digital the potential to be greater than ever, and this all create botnets. And in 2020, ransomware attacks businesses make today – across every aspect of lives, and with the digital world increasingly becomes exponentially riskier as more devices were up 150%, and the amount that victims paid developing programmable world technologies, bleeding into the physical one, people may be from more companies are connected together. grew more than 300% to an average of over but especially concerning their ability to securely 102,103 even less willing to buy into a single company $200,000. By mid-year, 2021 was already on connect with other devices – will impact their 104 in the future. Imagine a simple scenario in which a person track to be worse. “Triple extortion” techniques innovation agility long into the future. They will walks to the store to purchase a smart coffee have also become much more common, determine the kinds of environments companies What’s more, customer satisfaction isn’t all pot – because his old one won’t connect to his whereby hackers threaten to not only make a can design, the partners that they can have, that’s at stake – interoperability will soon be new virtual personal assistant. On his way, he company’s sensitive data public but to also target and the speed at which they can introduce required from a safety standpoint too. For now, pulls out his smartphone to check for directions. their customers, vendors, and business partners. new offerings. if a car’s infotainment system doesn’t connect However, his phone has been hacked and is wirelessly, it may be frustrating. But tomorrow, simultaneously mining for Bitcoin – he just As more of the world comes online, cyberattacks if an autonomous vehicle can’t connect to a car doesn’t realize it. When he arrives at the store, and data privacy breaches will have even more made by another manufacturer, people’s lives cameras using facial recognition determine who serious consequences. In 2019, two white could be at stake. he is and track his movements and purchases. hat hackers needed only minutes to exploit a Later tonight, that data will be compromised weakness in the Tesla Model 3 infotainment Second, as businesses scale up their in a data breach. When he gets home, he plugs system and get inside the car’s computers to 105 programmable world projects, they will be in his new smart coffee pot that unfortunately issue commands. Imagine what happens as introducing many more connected, intelligent still uses the default admin password, leaving autonomous machines, from cars to drones, devices and creating new entry points his home network – which he increasingly uses vacuums, and construction equipment, become connecting our physical and digital worlds. to work from home – vulnerable to attack. common – the possibility of vulnerabilities Each of these entry points opens possibilities increases, along with the damage that for innovation and new kinds of customer If this scenario sounds far-fetched, it shouldn’t. can be done. experiences, but each also creates potential risk. In the first half of 2021, cyberattacks were up Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 50

Programmable World ACTIONS TO TAKE Full Stack Programmability Beyond the fundamentals of cross-device interactions, privacy, and security, becoming a leader in the programmable world will require wide-ranging exploration, experimentation, and development across the Connected, Experiential, and Material layers. Companies need to start working toward “full stack” programmability today. To start, businesses should find ways to level up more broadly available. Moreover, 5G comes with their foundational, connected layer. Notably, 5G is security and privacy enhancements too – from poised to be game-changing in terms of its speed improved edge computing to network slicing, where and low latency, but rollouts are still very much in the data from one “slice” can be isolated from the rest of works. By the end of 2021, Ericsson estimated that 5G the network. It’s just a matter of time before 5G comes networks would cover only about 25% of the global into full effect, so anyone wanting to be among the population, and according to a 2020 Qualcomm study, first to create these solutions needs to start now. the wide range of 5G use cases are not expected to 106,107 be fully realized until 2035. This provides leading businesses with opportunities to experiment and pilot new use cases that leverage 5G capabilities, so that they can hit the ground running when it’s Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 51

Programmable World #TechVision In addition, businesses should ensure that Next, to find their competitive footing on the Look at what universities like MIT are working robot self-replicating by sweeping up loose they’re involved with industry-wide alliances, experience layer enterprises should innovate on. In late 2020, a team of researchers at stem cells in its petri dish, which then formed into helping to shape the development of new in areas where purely digital and purely physical MIT’s Center for Bits and Atoms published copies of the original bot – something that has technology standards. For instance, from an experiences have yet to excel. Take shopping their work around four new material subunits never been seen before. Among other things, 110 interoperability perspective, this could mean for apparel for instance, which comes with called voxels. The voxels are mechanical the researchers believe the xenobots could be participating in ecosystem-wide efforts to major pain points both in person and online. metamaterials, each with a different shape, programmed for purposes like finding cancer set standards for how devices connect and At the store, customers must deal with limited which can be combined to form larger objects cells or trapping microplastics in the ocean and communicate. Already, an alliance called Matter selections and wait times, but online they have with special mechanical properties, like bulging believe its self-replicating capability could have exists between Google, Apple, Amazon, and to purchase (and often return) multiple items inwards rather than outwards when compressed implications for regenerative medicine. over 200 other companies to certify smart to find the right style and size. Now, leading or responding to compression by twisting. 109 home devices using a standard that promises retailers are experimenting on two fronts. Though they haven’t yet been widely tested, the Voxels and xenobots may not be commercially reliable, seamless, and secure connection They are developing virtual dressing rooms researchers believe voxels could be programmed ready for a while, but the fact that they already 108 using AR filters and 3D avatars so that their into certain combinations to create objects that and communication between products. exist is what’s important. The building blocks customers can try on items before they buy. change and respond to the environment around for each technology layer of the programmable For the experiential layer, enterprises can start And they are enhancing their physical dressing them – like airplane wings that shapeshift in world are growing in maturity, and enterprise to bridge their digital and physical worlds by rooms with improved lighting and interactive response to different air conditions – and they decision makers need to keep an eye on this building digital twins. Even without the full screens, so their shoppers can get more out believe tiny robots could be used to assemble, future. Enterprises may choose to excel at maturity of the programmable world, these of trips to the store. disassemble, and reassemble the voxels into a one layer or another, but the full technology platforms already provide significant operational nearly limitless variety of objects. stack will be needed to truly realize the and competitive advantages to companies Finally, it’s crucial to be constantly exploring revolutionary capabilities of the programmable today. And over time digital twins will become future technologies on the material layer. Or look at the xenobot developed by researchers world. Ultimately, companies should be asking the engine for every enterprise’s programmable Partnerships with startups and universities from Tufts University, Harvard University, themselves how they can build programmable 111 world strategy, letting them invent products, are a good way to make certain you are and the University of Vermont. The xenobot environments that become more valuable design experiences, and run their businesses staying right at the forefront of real-world is a “programmable” organism created by over time – rather than obsolete. in ways that would have been unimaginable technology innovation. assembling stem cells like building blocks, a few decades ago. and in a paper published in December 2021, the researchers said they witnessed the organic Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 52

Programmable World #TechVision #TechVision Conclusion The arrival of the programmable world will be the most disruptive turning point for people and businesses in decades. We’re about to live in environments that can physically transform on command, that can be customized and controlled to an unprecedented degree, and that can change faster and more often than we have ever seen before. With these environments, a new arena for innovation and business competition will be born. Will you be ready? Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 53

Programmable World #TechVision Decision Points: Is your enterprise poised to innovate How could your business fundamentally Is your enterprise prepared for the in the programmable world? change in the programmable world? challenges of the programmable world? • Enterprises will need to develop strategies that take advantage of every layer • Programmable technologies will allow for greater control, customization, • Security, privacy, and safety are the predictable challenges of the of the programmable world, but right now they may only have exposure to and automation in nearly any physical world environment. This will programmable world that you can start addressing today. These risks a fraction of the developments underway. Leaders should develop a tech change everything from how your business operates (like manufacturing are particularly significant here because they will not be relegated to scouting program that can help track and anticipate changes across the operations, for instance) to how you interact with customers (through just the digital world but will have serious consequences in the physical consumer and business technology landscapes. advertising, products, and services). Prioritize the areas where world as well. Make experiences secure by design and data privacy a • Enterprises need to be prepared to adapt over time as new programmable programmability will have the most impact for your enterprise, like core part of your own innovation efforts. Choose partners based on their world technologies mature. Investing in the digital twins and IoT operational efficiency or increased customer satisfaction. security practices and stewardship of business, employee and customer technologies available today will position enterprises with the experiential • To be seamlessly programmable, myriad technologies from different commitments, keeping themselves and their devices safe. Increased and data foundations they need to rapidly innovate and respond to new companies will need to work together. Partnerships, consortiums, and connectivity leads to increased speed and impact of cyberattacks. Practice developments over time. industry standards can all be leveraged here to generate ecosystem-wide scenarios to find areas of improvement and ensure successful responses. • It is important to recognize the technology of the programmable world value. Look out for any of these that may already exist in your industry. • Avoid walled gardens in favor of interoperability to not only meet will open the door to new business models and strategies that are as When looking to strengthen your own relationships, search for new ways customer expectations, but to ensure utility and longevity of the solutions. yet undefined. Every enterprise invested in the programmable world will you could support the capabilities of your downstream partners. Make these components key performance metrics in your technology be experimenting with how to operationalize and monetize their new development and implementations. As the reach of enterprise technology capabilities. As this space is still budding, it is critical leaders revise the way expands, the ability to be interoperable can become a competitive edge they consider return on investment, and what key performance indicators for your enterprise. look like. Creating successful pockets of innovation throughout the • Ask yourself how well you know your customer. What would be a welcome enterprise will mean creating the space for safe experimentation and the connected experience, and what would be just creepy? Where in the ability to fail fast and iterate, while exploring new avenues for the future. service or experience should you share and where should you ask to understand the individual’s security, privacy, and safety needs? Create a diverse customer advisory board that can help you imagine the rich connected experiences that are welcome and share what touchpoints they want in that experience. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 54

n io s i V y og l hno2 c2 e0 T2 Trend 03 The Unreal Making Synthetic, Authentic

Trend 3 Timeline #TechVision The Unreal MIT’s ELIZA, an early NLP program, is considered the Barack Obama appears 66first capable of attempting in a video warning about 112 fake news, only to be a Turing Test. 116 19 revealed as a deepfake. An S&P 500 company OpenAI’s GPT-3 writes experiences a 22% 13ProPublica uses AI text 2018 articles that are difficult market cap loss in a Grammy Awards introduce generation software to distinguish from single day after a Most clothing retailers new category “Synthetic to publish a series of human-created work.119 023 offer customers a 33 Collaboration” that includes 114 disinformation awards for “Best Performance 2052,000 stories. 2 attack goes viral. personal fashion 2020 AI assistant. 20 by Human-AI group.” 2028 97 9 1 Major venture capital IBM’s Deep Blue 37 firm funds round for computer beats First responder startup claiming it can chess grandmaster A piece of artwork 26teams for the largest 0 preserve someone’s 113 generated by a European ambulance consciousness in an AI. Gary Kasparov. 2014 18GAN sells for 2020 0 service are equipped 2 Goodfellow et al. 0 $432,500 at a with dedicated AI publish the first article 2 Christie’s auction.117 Microsoft, the BBC, 2021 2 triage assistants. on Generative CBC/Radio-Canada, 2030 115 and the NYT release EU drafts regulation Adversarial Networks. Project Origin, concerning use of New regulation for standardized media provenance 121 “trustworthy” AI. testing requires test questions 2018 certification software.120 to be written with GTP-5 to ensure equity and lack of bias. Google releases a demo of the Duplex AI assistant which books an appointment using mimicked human voice.118 Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 56

The Unreal Jessica… Is it really you? THE BIG PICTURE Of course it is me! Who else could it be? :P I am the girl that you are madly in love with! ;) How is it possible that you even have to ask? You died. That doesn’t sound right… How can you talk to dead people? You can’t. Technically, I’m not really talking to you. I programmed a bunch of your memories and mannerisms into a computer simulation so I could pretend to talk to you because I miss you that much. Huh? You’re a ghost. How? 122 Magic. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 57

The Unreal #TechVision It wasn’t really magic, of course. But when Joshua posted his experience on social media, people were divided. Many found it creepy Eight years prior to this conversation, Jessica died and wrong, and certainly not everyone who is grieving due to a rare liver disease, but her fiancé Joshua still will benefit from this sort of interaction – on the 123 missed her incredibly. So late one night in 2020, contrary, it might prevent some from healing and Joshua used Project December – an interface enabling moving forward. For Joshua, however, the realness of users to create bots powered by GPT-3, one of the it was what brought out the memories and unresolved most advanced AI models to generate human-like text grief, all the while still knowing it wasn’t really her. – to bring Jessica back to life…in a sense. By training the AI model with text she had once written and including This human-to-machine conversation was only a short description of the two of them, he created through text, but imagine what it might have been the bot that generated “Jessica’s” text above, word like if Jessica also had a digital face that moved and for word. At times, it sounded exactly like her, and at spoke just like she might have when alive. Imagine others, it did not – but even then, he could remember if she were so realistic that you couldn’t tell if it was 124 her more clearly. Joshua recounted that, though far really her on the other side of that screen – or if she from perfect, the chatbot reminded him of her spirit, had been computer-generated. and the experience allowed him to grieve in a way he hadn’t before. What then? Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 58

The Unreal #TechVision We are entering a world with synthetic realness, And synthetic content will enable customers and where AI-generated data convincingly reflects the employees alike to have more seamless experiences physical world. In this world of synthetic data, images, with AI, not only saving valuable time and energy and chatbots, as well as augmented and virtual realities, but also enabling novel interactions. 96% we are forced to face the questions of what’s real, what’s not, and perhaps more importantly, when do That said, using these technologies pushes enterprises of global executives agree that we care? When we see the news, we want to know into controversial terrain. It raises tough questions their organizations are committed if the video of the president is real – but when we about how to leverage generative AI in an authentic to authenticating the origin of their watch the latest Doritos commercial, maybe it doesn’t way for a company’s customers, its partners, and its data and genuine use of AI. really matter. And sometimes, we may actually prefer entire brand – all within the context of bad actors using the unreal, like when we speak to a synthetic nurse these same technologies to create deepfakes and about a skin rash or train an AI model with synthetic disinformation that undermine trust. And it brings up data adjusted to counter historical discrimination. moral issues too, such as whether or not people should As synthetic realness progresses, conversations about remain emotionally attached to realistic avatars of the AI that align good and bad with real and fake will shift deceased. The answers to these sorts of questions will to focus instead on authenticity. Instead of asking be key to the reputation of businesses at worst and their “Is this real?” we’ll begin to evaluate “Is this authentic?” strategic advantage at best – and authenticity can, and based on four primary tenets: Provenance (what is its should, be the guide. It’s time to ready the business – history?), Policy (what are its restrictions?), People (who because the unreal world is about to become a part is responsible?), and Purpose (what is it trying to do?). of reality. Deployed authentically, synthetic realness can push AI to new heights. By solving for issues of data bias and data privacy, it can bring next-level improvements to AI models in terms of both fairness and innovation. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 59

The Unreal #TechVision THE ANALYSIS The Rise of the Unreal World Recently, the unreal world has gotten a bad rap – and for good reason. It’s maddening to call customer service with necessity to make sense of massive amounts an important question, only for a bot not to of data – to improve business processes, understand your request and refuse to connect enhance the customer experience, and you to a person who could help. It’s irritating ultimately drive better business outcomes. to receive scam calls that now (almost) sound like real people. Not to mention, social media To illustrate, Walmart recently partnered with bots are spouting disinformation, and harmful Google Cloud to build out its AI capabilities 126 deepfake videos are growing exponentially across the business at scale. AI has been 125 infused into demand prediction, inventory in number. management, and supply chain optimization But as AI spawns the unreal world, it is also in a holistic way to better understand the full becoming indispensable to businesses picture of the business. Already, Walmart’s use everywhere. Over the past several decades, of Google BigQuery has improved data it has taken hold and improved with more data, processing time by 23%, and Walmart can now increased computing power, and improvements close its financial books in three days rather than to AI models themselves. While AI used to be a five. In short, the business impact has been huge competitive differentiator, it is now a business – and it sets the foundation for future growth. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible

The Unreal #TechVision Enterprises are becoming architects of the then be shared with academic researchers and interact with, saving valuable time and effort 129 unreal world. As they push AI into more and other organizations. This allowed them and enabling new and unique experiences. collaborative and creative roles, they are blurring to innovate faster and in ways they never could 65% the lines between what’s real and what isn’t. have alone to create an algorithm that helps Consider OpenAI’s Codex – trained on both Advances in generative AI, and generative clinicians determine when patients should be code and prose – that helps programmers of global consumers lack 132 adversarial networks (GANs) in particular, are given drug treatment or sent to the ICU. write code in multiple languages. If asked in confidence in recognizing or making the creation and use of synthetic data plain English to create a bouncing blue ball, for identifying deepfake videos or that is incredibly realistic – while being unreal – American Express also uses synthetic data instance, it can create the code to do just that. synthetic content. possible. Gartner predicts that by 2030, most to improve their fraud detection – including Although Codex only produces the right code 128 of the data in AI models will be synthetic. more, and more unique, instances of fraud 37% of the time according to OpenAI estimates, 130 This has major implications for businesses. than normally occur to bulk up their algorithm. that doesn’t prevent it from being a valuable And MOSTLY AI is a company tackling AI bias partner for developers, saving them from having 131 First, synthetic data is being used to train by promoting fairness in synthetic data. to look up reference materials and providing AI models in ways that real-world data This means that if someone wants to train an blocks of code to build on. practically cannot or should not. This realistic AI model to learn that the same percentage yet unreal data can be shared, maintaining of women as men make over $50,000 a year, the same statistical properties while protecting because that’s what’s fair, then they can adjust confidentiality and privacy, and it can also the synthetic data to reflect that – and any If this isn’t convincing enough, a 2019 Accenture be made to have increased diversity and to models using the data won’t have that real-world survey found that 84% of C-suite executives counter bias, thus overcoming the pitfalls bias built in. believe they need to leverage AI to reach their of real-world data. growth objectives, and 75% believe that if they Second, synthetic data is being made realistic don’t scale AI in the next five years they risk For example, in the early days of the pandemic, in important ways too – to be more human- 127 going out of business entirely. Clearly, AI will Israel’s largest hospital used a platform created like for creation and interaction. As AI is be intrinsic to the future of business – if it’s by the Israeli startup MDClone to create democratized, it definitionally becomes more not already. synthetic COVID-19 patient data, which could human-like to make it easier for anyone to use Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 61

The Unreal #TechVision In people’s everyday lives, chatbots and virtual personal assistants are increasingly common and convenient – and new technologies could make Q them more realistic than ever. Hour One, for instance, creates digital characters, based on real people’s How confident are you that you can recognize likeness, that can be shown speaking any text in highly realistic videos (each human receives a micropayment deepfake or synthetic content? when their character is used, and that use is restricted 133 to safe content). These characters can then play virtual real estate agents or language teachers, easily 7% converting static text content into video – saving hours of actors’ and production crews’ time in the Very confident studio. Of note, Hour One requires that each video 28% disclose that the content has been computer- generated, and they embed each video with Confident 134 an “Altered Visuals” watermark. 35% Slightly confident 30% Not confident Source: Technology Vision 2022 Global Consumer Survey. N=24,000. (Lack confidence: Not/slightly confident) Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 62

The Unreal #TechVision Now if it sounds like Hour One is creating just synthetic AI but AI in general has played a bots, and bots accounted for 38% of tweets 140 deepfakes – or fake videos of real people saying major role in accelerating this sense of mistrust. about fake science. Moreover, research or doing things they haven’t done – that’s Some believe the use of AI algorithms in social from Carnegie Mellon University’s Center for because it is. But given the videos are safe and media to personalize content has led to filter Informed Democracy and Cybersecurity found legal, the actors have given permission for the bubbles, echo chambers, and algorithmic that bots may account for 45% to 60% of 141 use of their likeness, and the videos are clearly confounding, leading users to be shown more Twitter accounts discussing COVID-19. 136 labeled as computer-generated, Hour One limited and extreme content. Additionally, the seems far from malicious. So does that mean methods by which social media companies’ Enter the advancing capabilities of generative it’s okay? This points to the potential challenges algorithms prioritize engagement can lead to AI coupled with social media algorithms that and pitfalls that can arise with the use of unintended outcomes. False news online tends prioritize engagement, and it’s no wonder we’re synthetic data – and so far, its use has not to diffuse faster and further than the truth – in an infodemic with lowered trust. And as AI 137,138 progresses and we enter a world of synthetic been entirely good. Inadvertently, synthetic making the truth very much at risk. data has left out important outliers, failed to realness, things could get much worse. accurately increase diversity, and amplified To illustrate, it was revealed that prior to the bias too. And purposely malicious deepfakes 2020 U.S. election, Eastern European troll farms and disinformation have caused damage. were able to reach 140 million people a month on social media with provocative propaganda, All this comes at a time when trust in the 75% of whom saw the content because of 139 technology sector is on a steep decline, reaching the recommendation-engine. The use of AI 135 all-time lows in 17 out of 27 countries. Trust in social media bots can also amplify stories. in information sources across all media is at a Research from Brown University found that record low too, with social media in last place on an average day during their study, 25% of (35% of those surveyed trust social media). Not tweets concerning the climate crisis were from Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 63

The Unreal #TechVision THINGS TO LOOK OUT FOR Bad Actors in the Unreal World Currently, enterprises’ biggest threat to obtaining the advantages of the synthetic world are the actors who leverage it maliciously. 143 In 2020, phishing was on the rise, and 75% transfer the money. The CEO was convinced of organizations globally experienced a phishing by the subtle accent of the voice and its melody. 142 attack. Businesses rely in no small part on What if, in the future, it was a video call in which employee training and awareness to avoid it looked like him too? falling victim, but that will become much more difficult when a threat actor can train GPT-3 Now imagine that a scammer could convincingly on CEO emails to generate text that sounds replicate a business’s brand, with just the right precisely like them. Spear-phishing techniques tone, images, and social media presence. that are currently time-intensive and expensive If customers are duped, they’ll blame the will become cheaper to manufacture and of business – or they won’t become customers in higher quality at scale, putting businesses the first place. It’s not just money on the table; at greater risk. enterprises’ reputations are at stake. In fact, in 2019 a UK-based energy firm CEO According to the FBI, email-based scams alone was scammed out of $243,000 when he was cost businesses more than $2 billion over a called by his parent company’s “boss” – actually five-year period – and the growing believability 144 an AI voice deepfake – and told to immediately of these scams may very well cost them more. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 64

The Unreal #TechVision The fact of the matter is, malicious use of the “unreal” has disinformation, what is real will become increasingly murky. become decidedly lucrative for bad actors; people have Not only will threat actors be able to cause direct damage to motive to do harm, whether for profit, political power, or businesses and their reputations, but they could undermine something else altogether. As such, disinformation-as-a- trust in the AI ecosystem on which businesses are now built. 145 service agencies have come to fruition. Not only do they create and spread disinformation – which is relatively cheap and hard to protect against – but they also enable those who 146 pay for it to distance themselves and deny responsibility. 73% In 2020, Wayfair found itself in the midst of a misinformation conspiracy that grew on Reddit and was originally created by of global consumers think that over 147 According to the conspiracy, the fact that Wayfair’s QAnon. the next three years, the number high-priced cabinets all had girls’ names in their label was of times they interact with artificial proof that they had actual missing children hiding in them as intelligence (AI) or AI-generated part of a trafficking ring. Not only did this gain significant U.S. social media traction, but it became a global trend. Wayfair content will increase. denied these claims, explaining the naming system for the cabinets and the glitch leading to occasionally high prices, but still, their reputation suffered. Equipped with the latest generative AI capabilities, consider just how much more damaging disinformation is poised to become. As there is more and more convincing and alluring Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 65

The Unreal ACTIONS TO TAKE Elevating Authenticity While synthetic realness has the ability to sow distrust and discord, it also has the power to improve human relationships. Consider an experiment conducted at Yale programmed to make mistakes, and the social University in which participants were put into networks that they were in grew more flexible in small groups, each with a humanoid robot, and response and consequently outperformed those 148 told to collaborate on a task. The robots were with bots that did not make errors. This research programmed to make occasional mistakes. Some demonstrates that if designed and deployed in of the robots were designed to admit to those the right ways, AI with human-like qualities like mistakes in a humorous and self-deprecating way wit and, significantly, imperfection can be used – and it was their groups that performed better to improve people’s performance and strengthen because the robots improved the participants’ their relationships with each other. communication, allowing them to work together in a more fun and relaxed manner. In another Still, many cases won’t be so black and white. experiment, people were put into virtual social In fact, there are ongoing debates about the use networks with a few incognito bots and assigned of the latest generative AI capabilities and it’s not a collaborative task. Again, some of the bots were clear where the new social contract will stand. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 66

The Unreal #TechVision Consider the controversy surrounding the 2021 documentary “Roadrunner” about the late Anthony Bourdain. It uses an AI voice, trained on Bourdain recordings, to read passages he had written but never 149 spoken. The filmmakers could not receive his consent, and they did not disclose the use of an AI voice in the movie. Was that okay? And one voice artist, who previously read lines for AI modeling, has alleged that an AI text-to-speech feature used in TikTok is based on her 150 voice. In particular, she takes issue with people using her voice to swear because she says it’s against her brand. Does she have a case? These sorts of questions, as well as their answers, will differ by company and based on the situation, and they may change over time according to the latest regulation. However, for the businesses building ever more unreal capabilities and offerings, the time to start asking them is now, and you’ll need a consistent approach to do so. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 67

The Unreal #TechVision 154 Since we know that being real has no direct creators to easily mint NFTs of their social media protecting the rights of citizens. The current bearing on being good, being real should not posts, letting them set terms of use, license their proposal takes a risk-based approach, banning be the guiding star for business or society. content accordingly, and have greater control unacceptable uses of AI and having strict Rather, we propose authenticity as the new over how that content is reused and repurposed obligations for high-risk use cases. Policies like 152 compass. Authenticity means being true to by others. In fact many analysts are predicting these may affect your use of AI, but there are oneself and genuine in a way that others can that a large portion of news and video content ways for you to also affect policy. The Business attest to – and more concretely, using generative will be authenticated by blockchain in the Roundtable, for instance, has brought together AI in an authentic way means taking heed of coming years. No matter what technologies you CEOs from some of the largest U.S. corporations provenance, policy, people, and purpose. By use, establishing provenance will be critical as to recommend guidance for government 155 observing these four tenets, businesses can gain your business increasingly deals with potential regulation of AI. Much of this space is yet to confidence not only in their decisions to trust deepfakes and disinformation – and enabling be defined, so where there isn’t guidance, you’ll others but also in their use of generative AI such others to establish provenance as they interact need to define your own policies based on that others can trust them – thus enabling full with your business and content will be just as your industry, products, customers, and most participation and success in the unreal world. important too. importantly, values. And if you are proactive in sharing what works and what doesn’t, your One way to verify the provenance of digital Next, take stock of the policies your business business can be involved in shaping the future of content and identity – thereby demonstrating must adhere to with respect to generative AI. the unreal world – rather than just reacting to it. authenticity – is through the use of distributed In 2019 for instance, the U.S. state of California ledger technology (DLT). As an example, passed the BOT Disclosure Law, which states From a people perspective, your business must Project Origin, led by Microsoft, the BBC, that one must disclose the use of a bot be prepared organizationally to deal with the CBC, and The New York Times, is tackling the when they are used in communication to sell challenges that arise with the use of AI. Ask spread of disinformation using DLT to establish goods or services or influence a vote in an yourself, for example, who is responsible for 151 153 provenance from publishing to presentation. election. And the EU has drafted legislation having these tough conversations, and what And the startup Streambed is enabling content to regulate “trustworthy AI,” with the purpose of committees are drafting internal policies? Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 68

The Unreal #TechVision What departments are using synthetic data Machines creates synthetic people that can or content in the company, and who will be be used in cases where customers might fear held accountable if privacy is compromised judgment from others and actually prefer to 156 or customers feel duped? Finally, who will be speak to digital people. Yumi is one such the point person responsible if your company “autonomously animated digital influencer” falls prey to a deepfake or disinformation attack? that answers customers’ questions about their 157 Having these governance structures in place skin for P&G’s skincare brand SK-II. Yumi’s is imperative to handle the inherent risks baked realness can enable more seamless and into the unreal world. personal interaction – while simultaneously, its digital essence puts customers at greater Last but not least, genuine purpose is essential ease. Here, the purpose of using a synthetic to authenticity. In particular, businesses must person is clear on multiple fronts, and as such, define the purpose behind the use of synthetic is convincingly authentic. content, its advantage over non-synthetic content, and the key metrics that can attest to it. For instance, if your business uses a basic customer service bot simply to cut costs (as opposed to improving availability), there’s a good chance it’s not living up to its intended purpose of serving customers. However, if the purpose of using synthetic data in a model is to insert counterbias, thereby improving the output of the model, then it could be an authentic use of generative AI. As another example, Soul Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 69

The Unreal #TechVision Conclusion As AI progresses and models improve, enterprises are building the unreal world. But whether we use synthetic data in ways to improve the world or fall victim to malicious actors is yet to be determined. Most likely, we will land somewhere in the expansive in-between, and that’s why elevating authenticity within your organization is so important. Authenticity is the compass and the framework that will guide your company to use AI in a genuine way – across industries, use cases, and time – by considering provenance, policy, people, and purpose. Ultimately, it will unlock new attitudes towards and experiences with AI, unleashing the benefits of the unreal world. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 70

The Unreal #TechVision Decision Points: Is your enterprise prepared to take full How are you protecting your organization How will your enterprise shape advantage of unreal world technologies? and your customers from malicious use of the unreal world? the unreal? • Explore the use of synthetic data. Determine how its advantages could • Identify emerging malicious applications of unreal world technologies • Authenticity must become an enterprise-wide priority and a C-suite improve existing data strategies, and the algorithms and AI fueled before they become a systemic risk. Focus on the veracity and responsibility for generative AI. Know that regulations are formative in by them, like improving data set quality, reducing privacy risk, and provenance of the information coming into the organization, like this new territory of the unreal world. Have each of your major enterprise correcting for bias present in historic data sets. potential scams or disinformation, and out of the organization, to ensure functions identify the existing regulations they must adhere to and close • Identify where unreal content like chatbots or AI-generated images, unintended falsehoods aren’t perpetuated. Consider techniques like the the gaps with internal policies that align to company values. These should video, or content could help extend your brand and/or create preferred use of distributed ledger technologies to establish provenance. be reported up to the accountable C-suite leaders who should maintain interactions with customers. Find the ways it can create new avenues • Differentiate your use of unreal world technologies from those of a regular agenda item concerning the impact of AI to their business, and of connection with your customers, improve the quality of their threat actors and build trust with your customers by having a clear how to hold it to a higher standard. experiences, and drive new outcomes. and communicated purpose. Give people the ability to attest to the • Raise the bar on standards, engage in the standards-making processes. • Pilot the use of unreal technologies to augment the enterprise. Enable genuineness of the company and its outputs. For example, protect the Distrust or harm created by a malicious, careless or negligent company employees to leverage them as a partner, enhancing design, simulation, enterprise from malicious impersonation by incorporating verifiable or actor in the unreal world could affect how people will embrace and or decision-making capabilities. identity markers throughout your platforms and content. trust the unreal at large. Look for ways to affect the authenticity of the • Have a plan for how your organization will respond to malicious use of unreal world and hold it to a higher standard. deepfakes or disinformation campaigns against your brand. Explore the • Empower your people to not just ask the tough questions, but find most damaging threat scenarios and build the playbook to respond to the tough answers. Exploring the unreal will have implications across the events and train, train, train. security, marketing, customer relations, R&D, and beyond. It will be critical for the organization to have a consistent approach to decision making around big topics like security, privacy, safety, transparency, and ethical conduct. A useful starting point is to have specific people or groups be accountable to these answers and ensure that there are effective metrics to monitor the ongoing success and effects of any unreal innovations. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 71

n io s i V y og l hno2 c2 e0 T2 Trend 04 Computing the Impossible New Machines, New Possibilities

Trend 4 Timeline #TechVision Computing the Impossible Gordon Moore coins Moore’s 965Law.158 1 Peter Shor develops a quantum algorithm to solve Israeli scientists build Leading Indian 1994 integer factorization.159 computer using DNA cancer-treatment clinic structure that is capable announces 78% rise in Zettascale is achieved. of 330 trillion operations successful preemptive Supercomputers surpass 1Qbit is founded as per second.165 detections citing use of the processing power of the first dedicated HPC for better personalized the human brain. DNA-based data storage quantum software medical insights. becomes industry standard company.163 14 2028 in financial services. 1999 0 Distributed computing 2025 Quantum 2012 project Folding@home 2035 computing 2 breaks exascale company D-Wave threshold.167 was founded.160 2020 UN Environment 2008 2013 24Programme announces Los Alamos National Lab HRL Labs releases 19 research partnership to Manufacturing installs Roadrunner, the the Surfrider 0 bring quantum capabilities 2030 companies become the 08 first petaflop capable neuromorphic chip 0 2 into the fight against Major logistics company largest consumers of climate change. cuts operating costs by 18%, 031neuromorphic chips. 162 which has 576 neurons 0 supercomputer. 2 citing efficiencies gained 2 and runs on only Researchers at from quantum-based route 2 164 50 mW of power. Caltech, UC Davis, scheduling. DARPA launches the SyNAPSE and Maynooth Tesla reveals Dojo program to develop new University release a supercomputer for neuromorphic machines inspired re-programmable by the design of the brain.161 DNA computer.166 021processing video data.168 2 Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 73

Computing the Impossible #TechVision THE BIG PICTURE In 1994, applied mathematician Peter Shor devised an algorithm that leveraged the theoretical properties of a quantum computer to efficiently find prime factors of a given integer, known as prime factorization. On the one hand, this was a huge We are at a monumental inflection point. With What’s happening in cybersecurity portends breakthrough: It expanded the horizon quantum computers, all current encryptions one of the most radically disruptive trends on of what was considered computationally (of health records, bank transactions, and the horizon. We are witnessing the emergence possible and it outlined the first practical much more) become crackable. The growth of a new class of machines which are application of quantum computers. On the and development of today’s quantum stretching the boundaries of what computers other hand, quantum computers were so far computers are shifting Shor’s algorithm from can solve. These machines, including but from existence that nothing actually changed. a distant theoretical solution to a seemingly not limited to quantum, are pushing Moore’s Prime factorization was essentially impossible inevitable and urgent risk to the security Law aside as they jump to a new curve of for traditional computers to solve, so it surrounding our digital existence. That’s compute capability. In doing so, they are continued to be used in much of the design why even though today’s quantum machines taking problems once thought impossible and of digital cryptographic systems – including are still not mature enough to run Shor’s bringing them into the realm of the possible. the RSA encryption standard that we still use algorithm, there are nevertheless preemptive And because industries are in fact defined by to protect everything from email to financial efforts underway to build post-quantum their most intractable problems, when these 169 transactions to IoT devices. cryptography. The professionals closest to machines mature they will ignite a cascade this problem know that the inevitable maturity of disruption that will revolutionize what Shor’s algorithm is one of many solutions that of quantum computers will irrevocably change industries look like. used to exist on paper only, but now with the the rules of their industry, and if they’re latest advances in quantum computing, we’re caught playing catch-up after the computers starting to build the computers that could are developed, they will already be too late. actually run it. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 74

Computing the Impossible #TechVision Look at the world of logistics, for example. At the While this wouldn’t eliminate the need for highest level, the logistics industry can be boiled logistics companies, making a central problem down to one question: How do we move things readily solvable would fundamentally transform through multiple locations most efficiently? what they do and how they do it. Consider the 69% This is also known as the “traveling salesman” improvements that would come with dynamic problem, which is considered computationally optimization of last-mile delivery in any city of global executives report intractable due to the sheer volume of possibility. with any fleet size – not only could heightened quantum computing will have A single trip with just 16 stops has 20 trillion consumer expectations for near-instantaneous a breakthrough or transformational possible routes, and a classical computer would delivery times be met, but traffic congestion and impact on their organizations need to compute every single possibility to environmental impacts could be dramatically in the future. find the most efficient one – an effort that even reduced. And on a much larger scale too, the fastest computers could take decades to worldwide freight transport efficiency would 170 compute. Efficiency is the table stake for see massive improvements and enable the most logistics companies, but solving this core accommodation of sudden changes through efficiency problem is nearly impossible. So adaptive asset reallocation. instead, logistics companies solve subsections of the problem: tendering goods from shippers Every industry has “grand challenges” that directly to carriers, joining consortiums to lower define industry boundaries and inform the costs, and more recently relying on the power of core products, services, and strategies within. cloud and data to improve routing and tracking For instance, pharmaceutical companies are services. They are competing around the currently constrained by the protein folding traveling salesman problem – never solving it. problem, and the financial services industry Routes become better but never optimal. as we know it is predicated on the assumption that predicting the stock market and accurately Like with security encryption, the traveling modeling risk are very hard to do. But what if salesman problem could be solved by a they weren’t? powerful enough quantum computer. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 75

Computing the Impossible #TechVision Across the computing landscape there are experience the incremental and anticipatable machines emerging that will make these core innovation of the past, rather, once we begin challenges achievable. Quantum is the pinnacle crossing the computational thresholds needed of next generation problem solving, but high to solve these problems, the walls around performance computers (HPC), or massive industries will start to fall – fast. parallel processing supercomputers, can also help businesses take advantage of the swaths Let’s be blunt: The world of computational of data inherent to the digital world that may theory and hardware is not something many be too expensive or inefficient for traditional non-technical executives think about often – computing. And biology-inspired compute is a but they can’t afford to be caught unaware. new class of capabilities that draws inspiration This transformation is not happening tomorrow, from or relies directly on natural biological but development is well underway, and each processes to store data, solve problems, or new benchmark means being one step closer model complex systems in fundamentally to unimaginable enterprise capabilities. As such, different ways. These three sets of machines leaders must position themselves to have front will dramatically reduce the difficulty of solving row seats to the evolution of this field. They some of the world’s deepest challenges – the must build the in-roads and partnerships to very things that define the value businesses understand what the latest developments are, bring to their customers. both in their industry and the field at large, and they must begin experimenting and designing What’s more, one school of thought believes that the skills pipeline to ensure their company is as we begin to solve some of these intractable ahead of developments, not chasing the wave problems it is extremely likely the very same of disruption when it hits. Ultimately, enterprise algorithms will be just as effective at solving leaders across every industry should be asking others. In other words, an algorithm that lets themselves: What if we were the first to solve us quickly design a crossword puzzle very well our industry’s deepest challenge? may help us design an algorithm needed for efficient protein folding. This means we will not Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 76

Computing the Impossible #TechVision THE ANALYSIS Compute for a New Era of Enterprise The evolution of this new generation of machines follows a pattern we’ve seen before: Rapid growth drives demand for new tools which then transform industries by solving their fundamental problems. For example, the post-World War 2 period of Over the last decade, we have seen the rapid economic expansion spawned many of the rapid growth and maturation of these digital globe-spanning corporations we still see today. businesses. Accenture expects that 80% of Enterprises extended the reach of their physical workloads will be in the cloud within the next few operations, creating the need for a set of tools years. Companies are now generating more data that could manage their operational scale and than ever before, creating the need for machines ambitious growth. And they found their solution that can turn this data into knowledge – both for in the nascent field of computing, setting a new greater operational control and to bring about evolution in motion. Eventually, by automating new avenues and lines of business that are and streamlining operational capabilities through unique to the digital world. enterprise mainframes, ERP, CRM, the internet, and more (traditional) computing transformed industries – and turned every business into a digital business. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible

Computing the Impossible #TechVision This is what quantum, HPC, and biology- Increasingly the answer to this massive data processing power to run protein folding 173 inspired machines represent for the next conundrum is found in high performance simulations. Protein folding is a necessary generation of enterprise: a new suite of tools computing, more colloquially known as component to designing things like drugs and to handle the new, and greater, demands of supercomputing. Granted, as a field HPC vaccines. The challenge is that proteins can 67% a post-digital business. isn’t intrinsically new – the phones we carry fold themselves into countless possibilities around in our pockets would have been and shapes, and designing a drug therefore of global consumers expect The Importance of High considered supercomputers 30 years ago. But a requires a computationally difficult level of companies to use technologies Performance combination of GPUs, ASICs, and other purpose- simulation, or expensive trial and error. Since its to solve society’s large, complex built chips is starting to push HPC capabilities inception F@h participants waxed and waned, problems, because it will benefit More and more data is being created and to new thresholds and benchmarks previously generally hosting around 30,000 nodes at them and their communities. collected every day, and post-digital businesses thought to be decades away – an acceleration any given time. But suddenly, in March 2020, want to leverage the insights that come from that is rapidly making these capabilities mission F@h’s install base jumped to over 400,000 it – thus driving demands for greater computing critical for businesses everywhere. independent machines, adding the horsepower capabilities. To illustrate, IDC found that in that allowed F@h to effectively simulate and One of the most computationally intensive data 174 2020, 64.2ZB of data was created, captured, or “map” the structure of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. replicated, and that number is expected to grow operations on record was recently achieved by In the process, F@h became the first project 171 taking advantage of the sheer volume of latent to break the exascale threshold – defined as a to 180ZB by 2025. But of all the data created 18 in 2020, only 10.6% was useful for analysis or for compute power that exists in our everyday computational system capable of 10 floating 175 AI/ML models, and only about 44% of that was devices. Folding@home (F@h) began as a point operations per second. actually used – meaning currently, businesses small distributed computing project designed 172 to let volunteers dedicate portions of unused are underutilizing their data and losing value. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 78

Computing the Impossible #TechVision F@h demonstrates the potential power of going to get them the performance they needed parallel computing, and what can be achieved to train their models – no matter how many when sheer scale is combined with the power were clustered in a machine. So Tesla designed of today’s CPUs and GPUs. But F@h is a bit of the D1 Dojo chip that was built specifically to an outlier because of its distributed nature. The run the computer vision neural networks that most powerful supercomputer clusters today are underpin the company’s self-driving technology. localized, and almost always commissioned to The company designed a unique architecture run small, highly specific projects. For instance, to cluster these together, and thus the Dojo the Sierra supercomputer at Lawrence Livermore supercomputer was born. National Laboratory runs nuclear weapons test simulations in place of setting bombs off in But here’s the thing: While the confluence 176 real life. However, the demands for cutting of access to a unique data set and company edge computing power that were once isolated ambition led Tesla to this very specific need, to low-frequency events are now becoming the problem they are trying to solve isn’t niche increasingly necessary to the regular operations at all – in fact it’s at the heart of the industry. of a post-digital business. That’s why Tesla It’s easy today to think of Tesla as an anomaly. decided to build their own. But what happens when their cars start driving themselves? What happens when they can In June 2021, Tesla unveiled Dojo, a provide a feature no other car manufacturer can supercomputer designed entirely in-house and deliver, because those competitors simply don’t built for one purpose: making self-driving cars a have the technology to design it? Companies 177 reality. Tesla has long been at the forefront of need to ask themselves: Is this what’s required technology leadership, and this is an example to compete in tomorrow’s market? Are industry where they pushed technology beyond what – or company – specific chip designs and they could get from specialty vendors. For years, architectures the white space where they can Tesla had been gathering massive amounts of find a source of competitive advantage? driving data from its cars, and it was clear no amount of off-the-shelf generalized chips were Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 79

Computing the Impossible #TechVision Digital Ambition, to transmit information in a way that is more on the battery but on what can be done with Inspired by Nature power-efficient than traditional CPUs. Also, this the system. A library of 100 words for natural architecture is optimized for the execution of language processing, for instance, is going to While HPC may be more familiar, there’s Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs), a different be a lot less computationally intense and power another class of technology reshaping what approach to neural networks than the Artificial hungry than a library of 2,000 words – which businesses can do. Biology-inspired compute Neural Networks (ANNs) that power today’s AI means power considerations will directly affect takes advantage of the most mature systems systems. The SNN leverages simulated neurons uses like human-to-machine interactions. in the world: nature. There are two subdivisions to transmit input and output data, while an to this class: biomimicry, or systems that draw artificial synaptic layer strengthens (or weakens) Another option is for AI processes to run in the inspiration from biological processes, and the connections between each neuron – cloud, but then engineers run into a different bio-compute, which are systems that directly allowing the system to learn very similarly to the set of limitations around bandwidth and latency. utilize biological processes to perform way the human brain operates. No one wants a drone or a car that makes a computational functions. decision half a second too late. This is where Stepping back to what these machines actually neuromorphic computing provides a clear Biomimicry has been used in areas ranging from let us do – consider robotics. Currently, to advantage – it can run AI systems that allow for chip architectures to learning algorithms, and design autonomous or semi-autonomous learning, more natural interaction, and more, in a successful pilots have shown this emergent robotics, engineers must decide where to put power-efficient way. It opens the door to a world field can deliver benefits like greater power the intelligence. The machines need to be able of robotics and edge computing that we can see efficiency, speed, and accuracy in more to execute a set of instructions, but also adapt, from afar but have yet to attain. complex problems. For instance, one technology react, and learn about their environment. One at the forefront of biomimicry is neuromorphic option is to put AI models at the edge, but then computing. Neuromorphic chips, like Intel’s the algorithm likely needs to run on extremely Loihi, have introduced a brand-new design to power-intensive GPUs. With the current computer chips: They are modeled after the limitations of batteries, power consumption 178 becomes a significant design challenge, not just human brain. The chips use artificial neurons Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 80

Computing the Impossible #TechVision And robotics and edge computing are just the effectively store it. Companies are generating supremacy. The company demonstrated how it beginning. As the field grows, it’s becoming more data than ever, and especially in highly performed a specific calculation on a quantum clear that the human brain is particularly good regulated industries like financial services, are computer and estimated it would take 10,000 at solving certain problem sets (relatively) expected to keep and store that data for long years for a classical computer to perform that 182 quickly. For instance, modeling multidimensional periods of time. Indeed, DNA as a solution to same calculation. Though some critics claimed chemical processes or solving constraint this problem is more than science fiction. In it wasn’t “really” quantum supremacy, or that the satisfaction problems are areas where brain- 2019, Microsoft became the first company to problem set was too niche for that declaration to inspired algorithms can provide a distinct demonstrate the ability to successfully store and be made, these objections are beside the point. computational advantage. These advantages 181 Ten years ago, the premise of having a finding retrieve data in fabricated DNA. could be leveraged for use in waste or carbon like this to even debate would have been met recapture or for hyper-personalization, which The Quantum Era with incredulity. many view as potential billion-dollar businesses on the horizon. HPC and bio-inspired compute won’t be the only There’s still a long way to go in quantum tools post-digital businesses need to execute research. For instance, the number of qubits At the same time, we are beginning to see the on their future ambitions, however. While they needed on a machine to break cybersecurity is real fusion between biology and machines – are immensely powerful, HPC machines are expected to be around several thousand, while where machines don’t just mimic biological still “just” classical computers, and bio-inspired today’s devices built by Google and IBM, for 183 operations, but directly leverage biological compute is “just” a new approach to similar instance, host around one hundred. And there processes. At the forefront of this space is problems. The single biggest watershed is a large amount of both theory and practical 179 data storage. One estimate predicts DNA moment for computing will be when quantum development that needs to go into error could store an exabyte of data in just one cubic computers solve the problems that were correcting for quantum machines to reliably centimeter of space, with the potential to persist considered quite literally intractable – making the scale. But for enterprise purposes, the question over 700,000 years based on biological DNA impossible possible. isn’t have we reached quantum supremacy, it’s 180 found on earth. The reliability along with the what can quantum do for me? And the answer economical use of space and energy could be In 2019, Google published a paper in Nature is: a lot more than you’d expect. transformative at a time when our penchant for magazine revealing that it had reached quantum creating data is rapidly outpacing our ability to Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 81

Computing the Impossible #TechVision In September 2021, Goldman Sachs released a paper, alongside partners IonQ and QC Ware, that captured the practical demonstration of a quantum algorithm for Monte Carlo simulations 184 on a Quantum Processing Unit. Monte Carlo simulations are complex probabilistic forecasts used to predict outcomes with highly uncertain variables – and they can be very computationally intensive. They are used in a wide range of applications including sales forecasting, robotics, drug discovery, and of course, financial markets. By finding a faster way to execute these simulations, Goldman Sachs is positioning itself to better forecast markets, evaluate risk in financial instruments, and more. And the company has already announced they expect their quantum algorithms to run on quantum computers that will 185 be available within the next two to four years. Each one of these compute areas – HPC, bio- inspired compute, and quantum – contributes to a specific niche, but taken as a whole, a clear trend emerges: We are in the midst of an evolution towards machines that, down to the very physics of their operation, are unlike any in existence today. As they grow, they will expand the window of what’s possible. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 82

Computing the Impossible #TechVision THINGS TO LOOK OUT FOR Skills and Benchmarks The problem-solving capabilities enabled by this new wave of computing may lead to the biggest technological disruptions of our time. Due to the nature of the problems at hand, TOP500 is a project dedicated to tracking the 186 when breakthroughs are made, adoption is 500 most powerful computers in the world. likely to scale up rapidly and to cross-pollinate While those on the list can provide insight into other industries just as fast. The risk of into the top end performance of machines, being taken by surprise could be devastating this list only tells part of the story. Tesla’s Dojo, to businesses that find themselves competing for instance, will not appear on the list. This is in yesterday’s market. primarily due to proprietary information, but it’s worth considering how we measure the There are obvious signs to follow in order to track performance of these machines. In TOP500’s this trend – namely, benchmarking. But it’s just case, they use a benchmark called LINPACK, as important for leaders tracking the maturity of which measures the machine’s performance 187 these machines to understand exactly how to on “a dense system of linear equations.” While interpret that information. that is an excellent general benchmark, it’s an incomplete evaluation of something like Dojo, Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 83

Computing the Impossible #TechVision where the entire machine has been custom It’s also important to recognize that there into “deep tech” they run the risk of having tailored and optimized for video processing. are still many models for quantum computers. that gap grow even wider. As more machines use customized chips and Trapped ion, superconducting, quantum dot, architecture and are built to purpose, more and optical lattice are just a few practical That said, there are some efforts underway specific benchmarking may be required approaches to building new quantum computers, to improve this anticipated skills gap. QuantFi, to understand true top end performance each with very different approaches to a French startup creating quantum computer and capabilities. qubit implementation. algorithms, and QURECA, a quantum training provider, jointly launched “Quantum Computing Similarly, much of the reporting around quantum Benchmarks aren’t the only signal of growth for Finance” – an online course for professionals computers is focused on a different benchmark: for this trend. The impact of these machines to learn about the application of quantum 190 qubits (or quantum bits) per chip. This is roughly will directly follow the emergence of skilled computing to the financial sector. And the analogous to tracking the number of transistors workers who can leverage them. A survey of EuroHPC project is a public–private sector on a classical silicon chip in terms of giving top-level executives revealed the belief that top partnership committed to growing the use 191 an estimate of performance. Most providers factors delaying potential quantum deployments of HPC across the EU. As part of the project, today boast chips of 20–50 qubits, while today are a trained worker shortage as well the Irish Centre for High-End Computing most researchers see 1,000 qubits as a major as software and hardware availability. In that launched a Competence Centre with an threshold for performance. But again, it doesn’t same survey, half of respondents believed accelerator designed to work with private 192 tell the whole story. For one, error correction is that lack of quantum experts is what was companies to train HPC subject matter experts. still a major area of research. Breakthroughs in stopping quantum from being even more 188 quantum error correction will be just as, if not popular. Similarly, in 2021, the United Kingdom Those with the right skills and abilities will more, significant to the field as the doubling of conducted an in-depth study of the country’s not only understand benchmarks and how the qubits – because as the number of qubits grows, large-scale computing competency and found market is moving, but they will foreshadow and error correction becomes more important by “an acute shortage of large-scale computing enable the scale of impact these machines 189 orders of magnitude. professionals.” Enterprises are already facing will have. a technology skills shortage, and as they push Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 84

Computing the Impossible ACTIONS TO TAKE Forging Tomorrow’s Industries The computers that will create and fuel the next generation of industry are already being built, and enterprises need to be part of this wave or risk being swept away by it. They will need to understand how these new have the skill sets to fully answer these questions forms of compute may be used to solve the today – which is why enterprises need to start unique problems facing their business – and they acting now to identify their knowledge gaps need to start today. The good news? We can and begin filling them in before it’s too late. forecast where things are starting to happen. Just like Shor’s algorithm, the impact can be shown And this should not be left as a thought on paper before it can be seen in the real world. experiment. Those looking to take an active role There’s no excuse for getting caught by surprise. in shaping the next wave of industry should be asking themselves what hardware they can start The quickest action to take is to begin evaluating building or using to be the first to solve their how these technologies will shape the operations biggest and most impossible problems. Just of your enterprise. What problems are simply as Tesla built the Dojo supercomputer to push considered the cost of doing business? How itself – and the entire auto industry – closer to its would it reshape the business if you could vision of the future, all other companies should start solving those problems? Which class of be looking for those white space opportunities machines is likely to impact your enterprise where more specialized or more powerful earliest? Frankly, most businesses don’t even computing can broadly influence their industry. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 85

Computing the Impossible #TechVision 197,198 Forging the in-roads with potential partners the UK’s most powerful supercomputer, and the nascent market. In addition, Western is also a critical next step to take. Not only do it was designed and installed by NVIDIA with Digital, Microsoft, Twist Bioscience, and Illumina most enterprises have skills and capabilities the entire healthcare ecosystem in mind. The partnered to launch the DNA Data Storage to gain from partnerships or participation project’s founding partners AstraZeneca and Alliance to create standardization and definitions in a consortium, many of these problems GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) are already using the in the field of DNA data storage – with the actually require this level of collaboration. Most machine to create a generative AI model for ultimate hopes of developing cost and energy- 199 companies will not be able to solve problems at chemical structures and to accelerate the time efficient commercial archival systems. the scale of individualized healthcare or supply to market for new medicines using predictive chain logistics alone – they aren’t designed or modeling respectively. And NVIDIA hopes to add equipped to, and they may not want to be. These on to the project with an AI center for excellence, are large, systemic challenges, which is precisely intentionally designed as a hub for scientists, why bringing partners together is so critical 194 researchers, and startups to collaborate. and necessary. What’s more, the partnership opportunities and alliances forming today are Consortiums are also converging, committed already starting to draw the rough outlines of to the growth and development of these tomorrow’s industry, and you don’t want to be fields as a whole. The U.S. National Institute left behind. of Standards and Technology launched the Quantum Economic Development Consortium Look at Nippon Steel, Honeywell, and Cambridge (QED-C) composed of corporations, academic Quantum Computing, which have partnered to institutions, public health organizations, federally 193 195,196 optimize scheduling for steel operations. The funded laboratories, and more. The group combinatorial optimization problem they are aims to find use cases, determine technology solving could also help supply chains – which and workforce gaps, and work with stakeholders is particularly poignant given today’s supply to fill those gaps in order to enable the quantum chain challenges. Similarly, Cambridge-1 is computing ecosystem, as well as to foster Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 86

Computing the Impossible #TechVision Conclusion Decision Points: For decades, computers that could efficiently Are you ready for systemic What foundations will you need solve the world’s “grand challenges” have been change in your industry? to rethink as these grand challenges nothing more than theoretical concepts. But are solved? • Prepare to reevaluate your industry’s biggest barriers and • Create a futurist team to game through how new enterprises can’t afford to think about them impossibilities. Imagine how your industry – and enterprise technologies could threaten the status quo of the enterprise. in the abstract any longer. They are rapidly – would fundamentally change if these previously Pick a diverse team – skills, cognitive, gender, race, age, intractable problems could be efficiently solved. ethnicity – and give them space and a mandate to explore improving, and their impact on industries’ • Start making bets on the future of computing. Establish and free think. most fundamental problems and parameters a group for scanning and benchmarking this specifically. • Prepare for the move to quantum safe cryptography. They should meet quarterly or semi-annually to match the Follow the progress and selection of the post-quantum can either be an industry-ending event or the pace of change in your industry. Determine which class encryption methods at standards bodies such as NIST of machines is likely to impact your enterprise the earliest, and ISO. You may be able to protect yourself before the biggest opportunity in generations. The ones and in what way. grand challenges are solved. who start rearchitecting their industry today, • Assess the technical debt your organization carries. What is the innovation interest you are passively incurring anticipating a future with these machines, by holding onto technologies too long? Create a roadmap will have the best shot at the latter. for investment to pay down the technical debt and move to more agile architectures and technologies. • Identify new risks and opportunities these new compute architectures present. How will you test the integrity of the output and protect against poisoning the new capabilities that enable innovative new business models. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 87

Computing the Impossible #TechVision How will you leverage Do you have the skills to lead the partnerships in your next-generation search for new computing solutions? innovation strategy? • The new problems that companies can – and will – start to solve are • Even in a rich partnership ecosystem, it is important to invest in the too big for anyone to tackle alone. Partnerships are no longer optional, development of your own in-house capabilities. This will help you and enterprises should already be starting to build relationships with access more purpose-specific technology capabilities and set you next-generation computing providers, which are increasing in number up as a leader in your industry. and variety. • There is a significant talent shortage already in technology, and it • Pay attention to the signals coming from your partners and other only gets more severe as technologies and the skills associated with comparable companies in your industry. Seek out opportunities for joint them become more advanced. Create a people strategy that prioritizes investments, like consortiums, with others facing similar challenges to identifying, acquiring, and developing these skills. Enterprises that don’t increase your collective access to emerging compute. start competing for this talent soon are setting themselves up to fall behind. Introduction // WebMe // Programmable World // The Unreal // Computing the Impossible 88

Meet Me in the Metaverse #TechVision About the Technology Vision For more than 20 years, Accenture Accenture Labs and Accenture Research collaborate As a shortlist of themes emerges from the research has developed the Technology Vision on the annual research process, which includes: process, the Technology Vision team works to validate report as a systematic review across and refine the set of trends. The themes are weighed • Input from the Technology Vision External Advisory for their relevance to real-world business challenges. the enterprise landscape to identify Board, a group of more than two dozen experienced The Technology Vision team seeks ideas that transcend emerging technology trends that individuals from the public and private sectors, the well-known drivers of technological change, will have the greatest impact on academia, venture capital, and entrepreneurial concentrating instead on the themes that will soon start companies. In addition, the Technology Vision team to appear on the C-level agendas of most enterprises. companies, government agencies, conducts interviews with technology luminaries and other organizations in the and industry experts, as well as many Accenture Technology Vision 2022 Editorial coming years. This year the trends business leaders from across the organization. & Research Team look further out into the future • A global consumer survey to capture insights into Michael Biltz, Ari Bernstein, Julian Dreiman, than ever before, while remaining the use of, interactions with, and beliefs about Maria Fabbroni, Naomi Nishihara, Lara Pesce Ares, technology in people’s everyday lives. In addition, Krista Schnell relevant across industries and Accenture conducts a global survey of C-level actionable for businesses today. executives and directors to understand their Accenture Research perspectives and use of emerging technologies across their organizations. Renee Byrnes, Mariusz Bidelski, Gerry Farkova, Harrison • Experiential research and data science to analyze Lynch, Sandra Najem, Haralds Robeznieks, Swati Sah, technology developments and advancements. Abira Sathiyanathan, Gabe Schmittlein, Mélina Viglino About the Technology Vision 89

Meet Me in the Metaverse #TechVision Survey Demographics Business and Consumer Surveys Accenture Research conducted a global survey of 24,000 consumers to capture insights into their use of, interactions with, and beliefs about technology in their everyday lives. In addition, Accenture conducted a survey of 4,650 C-level executives and directors across 23 industries to understand their perspectives and use of emerging technologies across their organizations. The surveys were fielded from December 2021 through January 2022 across 35 countries. 35 COUNTRIES 1 Argentina 10 Denmark 19 Malaysia 28 South Africa 2 Australia 11 Finland 20 Mexico 29 Spain 3 Austria 12 France 21 Netherlands 30 Sweden 4 Belgium 13 Germany 22 Norway 31 Switzerland 5 Brazil 14 India 23 Poland 32 Thailand 6 Canada 15 Indonesia 24 Portugal 33 United Arab 7 Chile 16 Ireland 25 Russia Emirates 8 China 17 Italy 26 Saudi Arabia 34 United Kingdom 9 Colombia 18 Japan 27 Singapore 35 United States Survey Demographics 90

Meet Me in the Metaverse #TechVision INDUSTRIES Aerospace & Defense 2% Healthcare Provider 6% 3% Automotive 2% High Tech 4% REVENUES (USD) 6% $50 billion or more 3% Banking 9% Industrial Goods & Equipment 7% 16% $20 to $49.9 billion 6% Capital Markets 3% Insurance 8% 48% $10 to $19.9 billion 16% Central Government (CA) 2% Media & Entertainment 2% $5 to $9.9 billion 26% 26% $1 to $4.9 billion 48% Chemicals 2% Natural Resources 2% Communications 6% Public Service 7% ROLES Consumer Goods & Services 9% Retail 9% Chief Digital Officer 1% Chief Purchasing Officer 1% Education (Higher) 2% Software & Platforms 2% Chief Executive Officer 4% Chief Security Officer 2% Chief Finance Officer 7% Chief Strategy Officer 5% Energy 2% Travel 2% Chief Human Resources Officer 3% Chief Supply Chain Officer 1% Chief Information Officer 16% Chief Technology Officer 16% Chief Information Security Officer 3% Director of Business Function 3% Federal Government (US) 4% Utilities 4% Chief Innovation Officer 14% Director of Technology 6% Chief Marketing Officer 6% Director, IT 5% Healthcare Payor 2% Total 100% Chief Operating Officer 7% Director, Line of Business <1% Survey Demographics 91

Meet Me in the Metaverse #TechVision References Introduction 10 Locke, T. (2022, January 13). Jack Dorsey: Block is ‘offi- Trend 1: WebMe 30 Beeple’s opus. (n.d.). Christie’s: https://www.christies. cially building an open bitcoin mining system’. CNBC: com/features/Monumental-collage-by-Beeple-is-first- 1 Rogers, D. (2021, November 10). ‘Landmark event’ https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/13/jack-dorsey-block- 20 Videoplace 1975. (n.d.). Myron Krueger: https://about- purely-digital-artwork-NFT-to-come-to-auction-11510-7. claimed as robots pave busy highway in China. Global officially-building-an-open-bitcoin-mining-system.html myronkrueger.weebly.com/videoplace.html aspx Construction Review: https://www.globalconstruction- 11 Root, A. (2021, November 30). Honeywell Just Launched 21 Baker, C. (2017, June 2). How Warren Spector Created a 31 Issac, M. (2021, October 28). Facebook Renames review.com/landmark-event-claimed-as-robots-pave- The World’s Largest Quantum Computing Company. 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